By

Qais M.H. Al ShahrabalyHydrology Expert

Ministry of watre Resources

Baghdad IraqBaghdad Iraq

July 2011

AbstractOne of the most important environmental problems of

the present Century is the Global warming and Draught.

Global warming is the increase in average temperature of the earth's-surface air and oceans sincetemperature of the earth s surface air and oceans since the mid-20th Century and its projected continuation. An increase in Global temperature will cause sea level to rise and will change also the amount and pattern ofrise and will change also the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts. Other effects, including increase in intensity of extreme weather events and changes in the agricultural yields.The Global surface temperature increased 0.74±o.18º C during the 20th. Century ,Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the Global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 ºC during the 21st. Century.

A draught is simply defined as a long period (Usually a season or more) of a dry weather where precipitationseason or more) of a dry weather where precipitation fall is less than normal or no fall.However this study presents the Impact of Climate h th I i f W t fl I Ti Richange on the Incoming of Water flow In Tigres River

basin and its tributaries in Turkey, Iran and Iraq , also its Impact on ground water in western desert of I d th l ti Th t d i di tIraq and other locations , The study indicate a sever shortage of 13 km.3 in the mean yearly surface inflow, and 11.2 million cubic meters in the

bl d t i Adh i B irenewable ground water resources in Adhaim Basin. The study also presents brief presentation on water resources control in Iraq .q

IntroductionIntroductionGlobal warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

The global average air temperature near the Earth's surface increased 0.74 ± 0.18 ° C) during the last century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases resulting from human y y g g g gactivities, the greenhouse .Variation of natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times 1950 and had a small cooling effect after wards .

IPCC indicate that average global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C during the 21st century. The range of values results from the use of differing scenarios of future greenhouse emissions as well as models with differing climate sensitivity. Increasing global temperature will cause sea level to rise , and is expected to increase the intensity of g p p yextreme weather events and to change the amount and pattern of precipitation. Other effects include changes in agricultural yields, trade routes, glacier retreat, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.

Global mean surface temperature difference relative to 1961-1990 average

Climatologists (scientists who study climate) have analyzed the global warming that has occurred since the late 1800's .

fA majority of climatologists have concluded that human activities are responsible for most of the warming.

Human activities contribute to global warming by enhancing Earth's natural greenhouse effect. The green house effect g gwarms Earth's surface through a complex process involving sunlight, gases, and particles in the atmosphere .Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere are known as green House gases.

•The main human activities that contribute to global warmingThe main human activities that contribute to global warming are human burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gases) and the clearing of land. Most of the burning occurs in automobiles, factories, and electric power plants that provide energy for houses and buildings Burning of fossil createenergy for houses and buildings. Burning of fossil create carbon dioxide, whose chemical formula is CO2.

Impact of global warming could have

Impact of Global Warming

Impact of global warming could have many damaging effects. It might harm plants and animals that live in the seaplants and animals that live in the sea. It could also force animals and plants on land to move to new habitats. Weather patterns could change, causing flooding, drought, and an increase in damaging storms. Global warming could melt enough polar ice to raise the sea le el In certain partsto raise the sea level. In certain parts of the world, human disease could spread and crop yields could declinespread, and crop yields could decline

Highest temperature ever recorded i l t d t iin selected countries

2010 Bilma48.2º СNiger2010 Dunbroady49.9º СSudan

2010 Jedda52.2º С Saudia2010 Basra52.0º СIraq

2010 Yaskul44 0º СRussia2007 Gifu40 9º СJapan 2010 Yaskul44.0º С Russia2007 Gifu 40.9º СJapan

2007 Bari45.6º СItaly2010 Liperi 37.2º СFinland

2010 Luhansk42.0º СUkraine2007 Podunavlje44.9º СSerbia

2007 Harbanovo40.3º СSlovakia2010 Sindh53.5º СPakistan 2007 Harbanovo40.3 СSlovakia2010 Sindh53.5 СPakistan

Effect of Climatic Change on Iran and Turkey’s W t R d H lthWater Resources and Health

Research on Global warming effects on water resources in Iran has been undertaken on several rivers and lake basins *, The result of historical runoff data survey collected at 398 hydrometric stations shows that the flood index has changed in 47% of them .the long- term runoff model applied to 30 basins shows that the temperature rise increases the runoff volume during winter and decreases it duringincreases the runoff volume during winter and decreases it during spring as rising temperature melts snowfall into rain and hastens the time of snow melt .It also indicates that temperature increase affects runoff of basins and decreases the amount of runoff variation of rainfall . Also According to the 10-year hourly –recoded data in three sites (Chabahar,Bander Abbas and Bushehr) , the mean sea level in the Gulf and sea of Oman has been rising at an average of 4.5 mm/yr. the research on exposure rate to Malaria from 1982 to 1998 indicatesthe research on exposure rate to Malaria from 1982 to 1998 indicates that the trend cases of those infected are on the rise .

* ( M.J. Amiri and S.S. Eslamian , Investigation of Climate Change in Iran )

It is estimated that summer temperature in Turkey will rise by 3º C and winter temperatures by 1-2º C , According to results 3 C a d te te pe atu es by C , cco d g to esu tsfrom the General Circulation Model (GCM) , winter precipitation in southern areas will considerably decrease ,Similarly , according to Kondo (2005) ,summer temperatures in many parts of Turkey will rise by 3 -5º C, and while spring precipitation may increase by 5 -50 mm ,summer precipitation may decrease by 5-20 mm.

Turkey , per capita available water is 1500 m3 and will decrease to around 1000 m3 by year 2050 or 2100 , a serious water crisis will impact the production systems of turkey (DSI).

Effect of Climatic Change on IraqEffect of Climatic Change on Iraq

Water is the most critical resource for agricultural and domestic ecosystem , Average annual precipitation 900 mm at the north east of Iraq and 100 mm atAverage annual precipitation 900 mm. at the north east of Iraq and 100 mm. at the south west desert.

Average annual natural inflow of Tigres river upstream Mosul 21.5 km.3 ,Upper Zab river 13.32 , Lower Zab River 7.1 km.3and Diyala river 5.71 km.3.Fig. (1) Shows A systematic sketch for main controlling structuresg ( ) y g1 - During the recent decades climate change and its impact on water resources is shown in Fig. (2) ,and Fig (3) it is clear from this figure that the yearly draught is repeated each 10 years for two or more severe draught consecutive years ,( 1999 -20001) ,( 2008 2009) Table (1) shows a comparison in water resources for natural flow( 2008-2009) , Table (1) shows a comparison in water resources for natural flow and dry years.Impact of repeated dry years lowered the minimum operation level of most main dams below its critical level which caused hydro power plants to stop .( Mosul Docan, Hemrin Samara Barrage and other dams and barrages .2 - The annual average temperature is increased from 20.7º C before 1970 to 22.5ºC for last twenty years.Fig.(4) represent the recorded mean annual temperature

Fig. (1) Systematic sketch For main controlling structures in Iraq

Yearly River Inflow

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Us Mosul DamLesser ZabDiyala

Fig. (2)

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Table (1) Yearly River Water Inflow in cubic Km.3

Inflow Average

1989-2007

InflowYear 2008

Inflow year 2001

Natura Inflow up

to 1974

Location

18.98.519.9821.5Tigres up streamstream Mosul

11 36 526 9313 32Upper 11.36.526.9313.32Upper Zab

6 71 782 07 1Lower 6.71.782.07.1Lower Zab

5 11 281 995 71Diyala 5.11.281.995.71Diyala19.8214.79.5930.0Euphrate

Mean Yearly TemparatureFig. (4)

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The Western DesertThe Western DesertThe western desert of Iraq is divided into two parts ,the first part located

between Tigres and Euphrates rivers , from Samara to Sinjar with area about 26000 km.2,The second part located between Euphrates river , p pand the western boarder with area about 181400 km.2,The climate is desert arid climate with yearly rainfall ranging between 230 mm. at Iraqi Syrian boarder to 47 mm. at Sudia –Kuwait boarder with yearly mean rainfall 150 mm..

Mi i d d 1 2 ºC d i D b d JMinimum recorded temperature 1- 2 ºC during December and January to maximum 51.4 ºC during July and August.Due to climatic change ground water level was decreased more than 3 meters a number of wells At Shithatha area were dried, at Adhaim basin the estimated renewable decreased from 470 million cubicbasin the estimated renewable decreased from 470 million cubic meters for the period (5 years average1970-1974) to 359 million cubic meters for the period 2000-2005 as presented in Fig. (5),the following photos shows the Impact on Bedra area

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Fig (5)

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SAULT Cocentration( PPm) For Shatt Al Arab

1600017000180001900020000 Shat Al Arab

Qurna EuphQurna Tig

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ConclusionConclusion•It is predicted that the earth’s climate will be changed due

human activities like burning fossil fuels conversion of naturalhuman activities like burning fossil fuels, conversion of natural prairie to farmland , deforestation , industrial and car emissions , which increased the earth and ocean surface temperature alter the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the p p gbuild up of greenhouse gases ,Carbon dioxide is one of the more important gases responsible for the greenhouse effect .

Global warming and climate change perceived by all over theGlobal warming and climate change perceived by all over the world , also affect Neighboring countries, (Turkey ,Iran and Iraq) , its impact on hydrological components like low precipitation , low surface runoff and low soil moisture lead to draught and increase desertificationdraught and increase desertification.