Iraq

Timeline

1. Bush 43 WMD Argument

Assumption:• Iraq has WMD• October 2002 NIE• Pro and Con

2. Spreading Democracy

• Falling Dominoes and Democracy

• Map from Freedom House (2006)

3. Unfinished Business

• 1998 Iraq Liberation Act

• 1990/91 Gulf War

• When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda

Relationship?

• Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370)

• Levin Report, October 2004

• Pentagon Report, August 2007

2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case

• VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02)• Congressional Authorization for Use of

Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02

• National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment

• Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

US is Committed: Debates

Questions About the War:

• Should we invade?

• What to expect if we do invade?

• Troop Levels needed?

Questions About After the War

Building Democracy:• Internal Issues

– Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII

– Or Bosnia

Questions About After the War

Regional Dynamics• Iran• Syria• Al-Qaeda in Iraq

March 19, 2003: US Invasion

April 9, 2003

May 1, 2003

But… Mission Complicated

Insurgency

• Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military

• Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004

• Kurdish Independence?

• Shiite militias (Iran?)– Moqtada al-Sadr

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)

Political Developments?

Honest Attempts to Build Government

• Ethnic parties

• Religious parties

• Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab

• Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite

• Sunni vs. Sunni

• OIL

Positive Political Developments

• 7/03 Interim Governing Council• 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured• 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes

over• 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly• 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution• 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum• 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution

– Council of Representatives• 4/06 New government chosen by Council of

Representatives

Public Opinion of US Around the World

Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas,” 6/13/06: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252

Al-Qaeda after Invasion

• AQ in Iraq• Abu Musab al-Zarqawi• (killed June 2006)

• AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

US public opinion turns against the war

Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-

public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

Bush 43 Approval Ratings

Questions

• How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD?

• How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath?

• We’re there: what do we do?– The Bush surge– Iraq Study Group– Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

Good News?

• Awakening Councils (summer 2006)

• US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5)

General David Petraeus

The Result of Strategy ShiftFrom Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD Report to Congress, p. 18

Obama Policy

• 2/27/09 Speech• Refocus on

Afghanistan

The Bigger Battle?

Pakistan• Northwest Frontier

Province • Federally

Administered Tribal Areas