Iraq: Who’s Who? (Eitzen et al. web rdg. Yousef et al web rdg.)

3 main groups:1. Sunni Muslim—17%, center-west & north (Arab & Saddam’s group),2. Shia / Shiite Muslim- 60% center-south (Arab, Repressed by Saddam),3. Kurd – 17% Far North (non-Arab, Repressed by Saddam, Pro-US)

& Others (2-3% of pop.): Turkmen [conflict with Kurds] & Christian

Iraq govt.-- Shia-led & Kurd support, Close rels. Iranian govt. (Shia), Sunni ambivalent / hostileSecurity Forces & Milt. – Shia & Kurd mostly, & many Private Militias: -2 Shia,1 Kurd, & Sunni (Awakening/“Sons of Iraq”

ex-insurgents vs. US & Shia)Al Qaeda in Iraq– Sunni, very small, mainly foreign (Saudi #1), weak but dangerous

(bombings agst . civilians)

Iraq Conflicts (complex)…. Violence down greatly since 2007, but overall +600,000 dead & 2.5 MN displcd

1. A. Sunni insurgents & Al Qaeda Vs. US & Shia 2003-2007, 1. B. then US allies & vs. Al Qaeda, but still tensions with Shia

2. Sunni-Shia Conflict /civil war (2005-2007) Shia won. 3. Intra-Shia Conflict , & (3.B.) 1 Shia group VS. US occassionally4. Kurd-Turk conflict in North (oil), Kirkuk

US Surge Success & Withdrawal Agreement

• Violence down 77%, mid 07-mid-08. Why? • US troop Surge (30,000 extra troops),

• “Awakening Councils” / “Sons of Iraq” (100,000 Sunni militia agst . Al Qaida, not US),

• Sadr (Shia Militia) truce

• Use of Force or other tactics key? (paradoxes of Counter-insurgency--Schwartz)

• THE Key Issue– Will Shia-Kurd led Govt. reconcile with & include Sunni-ex-insurgents?

• New Status of Forces Agreement (US-Iraq)– ALL US forces out by 2011– Restrictions on US forces starting June 2009 (place outside

cities, need Iraq govt. permission to do ops out of bases)

Afghanistan (& Pakistan & India) (Eitzen et al. web rdg. & Scahill et al. web rdg)

• US history in region —1980-1989 CIA & mujahadeen insurgency vs. Soviet Russia invasion, Pakistan role & creation of Taliban; Bin Laden…, Russian Leave 1989.

• 1996-2001 Taliban rule, sort of, Civil war 90s; Pakisan & Suadi Arabia ties. Pakistan vs. India rivalry & 1998 nukes

• Post 9/11, 2001—US overthrows Taliban w/ local rivals help & NATO, new govt. (now corrupt); Bin Laden & Taliban flee (Pakistan)

• 2002 –2008 Afghanistan lgly. ignored (Iraq) low-level insurgency, US/Nato vs. Taliban and others

• Ethnic group complexity & conflict –Pashtun vs. Tajik, etc. Pashtun binational 40 MN, many local groups & warlords, vs. any outsiders.

• 2009-2010 -- Increase US troops (surge 30,000) – focus on Pashtun & Taliban areas (south & east), complex conflict spreading, What to do? Paradoxes of C-I (Schwartz) & Targeted killings, reconciliation / negotaition? Understand culture?

• Pakistan ambivalent role & internal problems