ire 2010 final

IRE 2010 Lightning Talk

Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before

Believe it or not there's a formula. Two formulas actually, but they're both pretty simple, and together they're about right for a five minute presentation. Make no mistake though, doing something that has never been done before is hard. Truly, if it was easy it would already be done.

Brad StengerJune 10, 2010



30 seconds … intro60 seconds … formulas, two of them90 seconds … applying the formulas in general90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism30 seconds … summary



30 seconds … intro60 seconds … formulas, two of them

Compound Probabilityp(A and B and C and … ) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C) ...

Expected ValueE(X) = x*p(x)




p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) = x*p(x)90 seconds … applying the formulas in general

Complexity & Difficulty

Singles & Homeruns

Process & Product





Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism

Internet = Interdependencies

Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface






Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface30 seconds … summary Decision-making Preparation Minimizes Risk

Awareness Maximizes Opportunity

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Believe it or not there's a formula. Two formulas actually, but they're both pretty simple, and together they're about right for a five minute presentation. Make no mistake though, doing something that has never been done before is hard. Truly, if it was easy it would already be done.

Brad StengerJune 10, 2010

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30 seconds … intro60 seconds … formulas, two of them90 seconds … applying the formulas in general90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism30 seconds … summary

I will be enrolling in the MSJ program at Medill in June, 2010. Before working in Journalism, I worked in university technology transfer and have been assessing new technologies for 10+ years. Visit bradstenger.com if you're interested in seeing my complete bona fides.

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Compound Probabilityp(A and B and C and … ) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C) ...

Expected ValueE(X) = x*p(x)

In general, probabilities multiply. With each additional first-of-its-kind element in a first-of-its-kind project, the probability of overall project success takes a hit.

Every situation is different. But again in general, something that's never been done before and has a low probability of success better have commensurately high potential value.

It's also wise to limit your downside, the negative expected value of undesirable, but still possible outcomes.

Probability => What's Possible => Expected Value => What's Valuable

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Complexity & Difficulty

Singles & Homeruns

Process & Product

Complexity: something with lots of project elements, each of them with a probability and potential value

Difficulty: factors which negatively affect probability for success

Singles: attempting new things that have reasonably high probability of success, but relatively low value

Homeruns: a new thing with high potential value, but relatively low probability

Process: I'd like to think it's as simple as great products come from great processes, but I suspect it's not that simple, b/c process is rarely simple. Keywords I listen for – transparency, lowest common denominator, invention.

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Internet = Interdependencies

Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface

Everything built for the Internet is beset by some unavoidable interdependencies.

Content, Business Model, Information Services, and Interface Design all represent opportunities to either positively or negatively differentiate a new Net thing.

Plug all of a journalism project's elements in each dimension into to the Compound Probability formula and success is inevitably a challenge.

Help to reduce risk comes in the form of frameworks, agile practices, APIs, strong design fundamentals, continuous improvement.

The tension is to seek challenges but not overdo it. Limit downside of failures with the value in learning from them. Remember though, if you're not failing you're not really trying.

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Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface30 seconds … summary Decision-making Preparation Minimizes Risk

Awareness Maximizes Opportunity

At some level it comes down to decision-making. ... It helps to know what you're dealing with. Preparation,

as in knowing technical and design details, makes it more likely that bad decisions can be ruled out more quickly.

The answers to most questions are out in the world, and not necessarily in your head. Awareness, as in knowing or learning where solutions already exist, solutions that can turn unknowns into knowns, it saves time/money/effort.

One big thing to remain aware of, especially for the Internet, is how something scales up.

Base decisions on guesses instead of evidence, and success depends on luck.

ire 2010 final

Technology