Is Europe prepared for the German Energiewende?

Berlin 23 October, Auke Lont, CEO Statnett SF

What is the Energiewende?

Source & illustration: The Energiewende – Germany's gamble (The Ofxord Institute for Energy Studies, Buchan (2012)) 

Germany's future electricity mix after the nuclear phase out

What have we seen so far?

Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/

What have we seen so far?

Source: http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/

Interaction between political framework, technology and the market…

…drives progress

Political framework

Technology

Market

The future is uncertain…

Source: EPIA (2011): "Solar Photovoltaics Competing in the Energy Sector", IEA (2010): Projected Costs of Generating Electricity – 2010 Edition, NREL (2012) ‐ IEA Wind Task 26: The Past And Future Cost Wind Energy. 

…but electricElectricity's share (%) of energy consumption in the EU

Source and Illustration: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050

Therefore we need a stronger grid – and more interconnectors

But system stability and costs are already under pressure…

Reduced quality of frequency …

....leads to increased system costs

…and costs may rise due to conflicting targets and means

Source: EU Road Map 2050

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Current policies High RES

GW installedcapa

city

Euro billions to

tal grid

 investmen

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Grid investments and installed capacity under two policy scenarios in EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Network investments 2011 ‐ 2050 Installed power capacity 2050

The market is needed to realize the energy and climate goals for 2050

Until new infrastructure is in place, congestion management, such as price zones, will play an important roleNew mechanisms may undermine the market –e.g. national capacity markets

The way forward

"Stay the course" "Trust the market""Technology neutrality"

Political framework

Technology

Market

Europe – towards 2050

Security of supply in NorwayPower flows during the coldestday ‐ 6th January 2010

Energy transition in DenmarkElectricity consumption, generation og transmission to Norway 6th og 7th of October 2010

Electricty consumption Jutland

Wind power generationJutland

Transmission Jutland ‐ Norway

Heading for 50 % wind power in 2020

CoffeeTV

The European energy community towards 2050

Demand side almost fully electrifiedConsiderable electricity trade between countriesNatural gas – supporting renewablesOil – of less importance

- A possible scenario

Germany in the driving seat