is the relationship arbitrary or causal?

Is the relationship in your problem/question

causal or arbitrary?

By the end of this presentation you will be able to determine if your relationship question is –


Causal


Causal

or


Causal

or

Arbitrary

What is a causal relationship?

A causal relationship is a relationship where one variable

A causal relationship is a relationship where one variable (temperature)

A causal relationship is a relationship where one variable (temperature) causes another variable

A causal relationship is a relationship where one variable (temperature) causes another variable(ice melting).

A causal relationship is a relationship where one variable (temperature) causes another variable (ice melting).

Causal relationships are hard to establish because in order for it to be causal it must always happen without exception.

For example,

Heat causes molecules to move and interact more.

Heat causes molecules to move and interactmore.


There is hardly any scenario where that would not happen.


And that is why this relationship is called

causal.

The increase of temperature may influence ice cream sales, but this is not considered a causal relationship.

The increase of temperature may influence ice cream sales, but this is not considered a causal relationship.

That’s because there will be times when this is not the case, like when the price of ice-cream ingredients increases dramatically thus driving down the demand of ice-cream regardless of the temperature.

In most social science statistics we speak of causal relationships but what we really mean is that one variable influences another variable.


Variable 1 Variable 2causes


Variable 1 Variable 2causes

Variable 1 Variable 2INFLUENCES

With so-called causal relationships the independent variable does the influencing:


Temperature

With so-called causal relationships the independent variable does the influencing and the dependent variable is what is effected

Here are some more examples:

Does illegal drug use influence lawlessness?

Independent Variable


Dependent Variable

Does teenage boredom influence thrill seeking?


Independent Variable


Dependent Variable

The wording you see in a word problem that will give you a clue that you are working with a “causal relationship” is the verb “predicts”.

For example,

Does stress predict anxiety?

For example,

Does stress predict anxiety?

Meaning you can tell the amount of anxiety someone has, if you know the amount of stress they are under.

If this is the case, then you will classify the relationship as:

If this is the case, then you will classify the relationship as:

Causal

Arbitrary

In other instances the relationship between two variables is not causal but arbitrary.

In other instances the relationship between two variables is not causal but arbitrary.

Causal

Arbitrary

Meaning we do not know what causes what, we just know that:


- when one increases the other increases,



- or when one decreases the other decreases,



- or when one decreases the other decreases,

- or when one increases the other decreases.

We just don’t know which influences which.


Generally they most likely influence each other:



Probably influence and is influenced byPeace

Honorable Living



Anxiety DepressionProbably influence and is influenced by

When we are not sure which is which, then this becomes an arbitrary relationship as opposed to a causal relationship.

When we are not sure which is which, then this becomes an arbitrary relationship as opposed to a causal relationship.

Causal

Arbitrary

Note – unless your relationship problem specifies a causal relationship (with one variable influencing directly another variable) then the problem is most likely arbitrary.

What is the nature of your relationship question?

What is the nature of your relationship question?

Causal

or

Arbitrary

is the relationship arbitrary or causal?

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