is the world overpopulated?
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Is the world overpopulated?. Is the world overpopulated?. Siberia. Is the world overpopulated?. Calcutta. Is the world overpopulated?. Africa. Congo. Kenya (Nairobi). Is the world overpopulated?. Why do Western European governments encourage more babies?. What does “overpopulated” mean?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Is the world overpopulated?
Is the world overpopulated?
Siberia
Is the world overpopulated?
Calcutta
Is the world overpopulated?Africa
Congo
Kenya (Nairobi)
Is the world overpopulated?
Why do Western European governments encourage more babies?
What does “overpopulated” mean?
Ethiopia - 70 million - overpopulated
Germany - 80 million - not overpopulated(Ethiopia is 3x bigger)
Where do humans live?
How many humans are there?What is the result of population
increase?
Starvation? Malthusian TheoryThomas Malthus -
1798
The world’s population is increasing faster than food supply.
(Food supply grows linearly, population grows exponentially.)
Neo-MalthusiansHuman suffering is
occurring on a scale unimagined even by Malthus.
Overpopulation must be addressed now.
Questions - ● How can we make sense of population
changes?● How can we make predictions?
● Why is the highest growth rate in underdeveloped states?
● Why do the richest states have the lowest growth rate?
Answers -Demographic Transition Model
Demographic Transition Modela theory which explains human population
change
Demographic Transition Modela theory which explains human population
changebased on ● idea that all societies want to
transition from pre-modern to postmodern
● experience of richer, fully developed states (Europe, US, Australia…)
Stage 1
Stage 1Pre-modern, hunter-gatherer stage
Birth ratehigh
Death ratehigh
What’s going on?Why?
Stage 1Pre-modern, hunter-gatherer stage
What’s going on?Why?high IMR,low life expectancy
Stage 1Pre-modern, hunter-gatherer stage
Total populationlow, low growth rate
Examplesno states - only areas of Amazon, remote savannas in Africa, highlands of Papua New Guinea
Stage 2
Stage 2Urbanizing-Industrializing stage
Birth ratehigh, stable
Death ratedeclines
What’s going on?Why?
Stage 2Urbanizing-Industrializing stage
What’s going on?Why?agricultural revolution & technical
innovation → specialization & urbanization→ industrialization
Stage 2Urbanizing-Industrializing stage
Total Populationpopulation explosion! death rates drop, birth rates remain high → youthful population
cultural lag = conditions change, but culture is lagging behind
Stage 2Urbanizing-Industrializing stage
Examplesstates in Africa, Central America and parts of Southeast Asia
(late Stage 2)
Stage 3
Stage 3Mature Industrial
Birth ratedeclining
Death ratedeclining
What’s going on? Why?
Stage 3Mature Industrial
What’s going on? Why?● More people in processing,
manufacturing, and service than farming → urbanization → lower TFR
● Improved health care, technology, education, etc.
● Early Stage 3 very different from Late Stage 3
Stage 3Mature Industrial
More on lower TFR:Urbanization = re-evaluation of costs and
benefits of having children.Educated women = more women
working, more contraceptive use, fewer kids
Cultural lag is over
Stage 3Mature Industrial
Total Population:young people % = older people %Examples:(most states are in Stage 3)early Stage Three - India, Brazillate Stage Three - China, Chile
Stage 4
Stage 4Fully Developed, Postindustrial
Birth ratelow, stable
Death ratelow, stable
What’s going on? Why?
Stage 4Fully Developed, Postindustrial
What’s going on? Why?● economic shift has occurred - most people
work in service (few in manufacturing, almost none in agriculture)
● technology and education still increasing, but can’t lower death rate any more
● most people have 1 or 2 children, some have none
Stage 4Fully Developed, Postindustrial
Total Population:older TFR is low
Examples:U.S., France, Japan
Stage 5? Does it exist?Birth rate falls below death rate,causing net population loss.
Will states disappear?
Population Pyramids show population by gender and age
groups● economic
conditions
● standard of living
● future population
Population Pyramids Classic Pyramid
Population Pyramids Classic Pyramid
population explosion!Largest age cohorts = under 15 year olds
Why does this matter?more dependents than providers
Which DT stage(s) have this shape?What else can we predict about a
population with this shape?
Population Pyramids Column Shape
stable population growth (low, even zero)
closer to replacement level→ more cylindrical in shape
replacement level = TFR of 2.1
Which DT stage(s) have this shape?What else can we predict about a
population with this shape?
Population Pyramids Column Shape
Population Pyramids Inverted
Population Pyramids Inverted
total population is shrinkingTFR is under 2.1
Why does this happen?Could a state shrink into nonexistence?How could this be avoided?
Population Pyramids Inverted
Examples: Japan, Italy, SwedenWhy?
higher cost of living in urbanized area+ transition of children from asset to
expense= changed attitudes, lower TFR
different kind of example - Russia and former Soviet states - inverted
b/c lack of resources, jobs, health care, other services
Population Pyramids and the DTM
Which stage?How can you tell?
Population Pyramids and the DTM
Which stage? early- to mid-Stage ThreeHow can you tell?
Population Pyramids and the DTM
Which stage?How can you tell?
Population Pyramids and the DTM
Which stage? late Stage 3, early Stage 4How can you tell?
Population Pyramids and the DTMWhich stage?How can you tell?
Population Pyramids and the DTMWhich stage? Stage 4How can you tell? What else does this
pyramid show about India?
Population Pyramids and the DTMpopulation momentum =“snow ball” effect population growth after fertility stabilization (TFR of 2.1)
Use the DT model to predict - What will happen to...
...least developed countries? (sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East, Central America, most of Asia)
...countries further down development path? (China, India, Mexico, South America)
...countries that are fully developed?(W Europe, US / Canada, Australia)
What causes exceptions?religious influencessome states in Middle East and South
America are maintaining high birth rates
state-sponsored policiesChina - One-Child Policy - wealthy and
growing middle class wants to have more children despite penalties
Population “Quiz”http://media.plaidavenger.com/pyramidmc/
John Boyer, Geography ProfessorVirginia Tech