Is there 'White Flight' in England?

Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.ukhttp://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass

twitter: @epkaufm

Reduce Immigration (a little or a lot)

• 80.4% of white UK born respondents vs. 19.6% of UK-born whites who wish immigration to stay the same or increase

Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey, 2010-11, geocoded with Census 2011

Reduce the number of immigrants (a lot and a little) by social class and ward diversity (aggregated dataset) for all white respondents

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

UpperMiddle Working classAll

•22 studies at ward level (population generally 10,000-30,000) : 74 percent link higher diversity to reduced animosity, just 18 percent the reverse

•43 studies using units above 100,000 population: a significant increase in out-group hostility in 86 percent of these studies

Local Contact, Metro Threat?

• Feeling of threat at metro level as minorities grow, but positive contact at local level creates accommodation

Selection Bias Problem

Q: Why are whites in diverse areas more tolerant?

A: Selection bias: whites who don’t like diversity leave, a.k.a. ‘white flight’ or white avoidance

Selection Bias?

• No one has properly tested• Test with BHPS/Understanding Society• Large sample, longitudinal, geocoded• Compare white British who enter and leave

diverse wards• Compare white British movers (enter/leave)

with those who stay• Proxy questions for attitude to immigration

Simpson (2007) Method

Wards% White

Quintile 1 7554 98Quintile 2 726 87Quintile 3 288 73Quintile 4 180 57Quintile 5 102 34Total 8850 91

Diversity Seekers White Flight/Avoiders

Quintile Change?: Same Less More Total

White stayer 119316 1596 1468 122380 90.7%

White inter-ward mover 6774 1670 1421 9865 7.3%

White intra-ward mover 2565 38 37 2640 2.0%

Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011

Simpson (2007) Method

Wards% White

Quintile 1 7554 98Quintile 2 726 87Quintile 3 288 73Quintile 4 180 57Quintile 5 102 34Total 8850 91

Diversity Seekers

•24% Tory •18% Working Class•27% Degrees •57% English Identity •46% Tabloid •44% 17-25s •50% renters •49% single •10% anti-homosexual •9% gender traditionalists

White Flight/Avoiders

•24% Tory •18% Working Class•30% Degrees •57% English Identity •56% Tabloid •32% 17-25s •26% renters •35% single •12% anti-homosexual •12% gender traditionalists

Not Selection

• Whites moving to diverse areas and those leaving them are almost identical in voting, family values, English national identity, British patriotism, newspaper readership

• No direct measure of immigration opinion, but research in Sweden finds identical pattern (Hedman et. al 2012)

Mobility?: Stayers Differ From Movers

• Swedish research shows that whites leaving diverse areas (Hedman et. al 2012) are more tolerant of immigration than whites who remain

• Our work with BHPS corroborates this: movers are more tolerant on family values and morality, whilst stayers tend to be more nationalistic and defensive of Britain’s standing in the world.

Stayer Mover Total

Not Religious 52.9 66.6 54.2Religious 47 33.4 45.8 ***

Homosexuality wrongagree 21.5 13.8 20.8neither 36.8 29.5 36.2disagree 41.7 56.8 43 ***

Husband should earnagree 18.9 12.2 18.3disagree 52.8 64.7 54 ***

Cohabitation wrongAgree 16 7.7 15.2disagree 52 73.8 30.8 ***

Brit Citizenship is Bestagree 74.8 65.4 74neither 17 22.8 17.6disagree 8 11.7 8.4 ***

Britain has much to learn from other countriesagree 45.2 45.6 45.2neither 31.7 34.3 32disagree 23.1 20.1 22.8 **

Stayer Mover TotalManagers 19.9 21.1 20

Intermediate 42.8 45.6 43Own acc 5.8 4.7 5.7

working class 29.4 26.2 29.1

never worked 2 2.2 2.1***

17-25 8.4 29.3 10.426-35 16.2 31.7 17.736-45 19.8 16.1 19.446-54 16.5 8.6 15.855-64 15.3 6.3 14.565+ 22.4 7 21***

Con 28.8 25.2 28.5Labour 40 38 39.8Liberal 13.9 14.4 14Other 4.7 5.2 4.7none 12.6 17.1 13***

redtop 67 63.4 66.8

broadsheet 26.9 31.9 27.9***

owner 79.6 54.6 77.3social 15 15.9 15.2rented 5.3 29.5 7.5***

degree & above 10.9 18 11.6A-level 23.2 30.6 23.8O- level 31.3 33 31.4none 34.6 18.3 33***

Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011

Stayers and far right support• Harris’ work on support for the

far right in Greater London 2007-10: electoral support for the BNP stronger in wards with less in- and – outflow

• Far right support linked with white enclaves nested within more ethnically diverse areas- bifurcated relationship with diversity (Goodwin 2011, Bowyer 2008)

• Positive relationship at Local Authority (conflict) against negative at ward level (contact)

Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by social class

Most Homoge

neous 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Most Dive

rse50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95UpperMiddle Working classAll

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

All Whites

White Work-ing Class

By Share of Ethnic Minorities in Ward

By Share of Recent Immigrants (less than 10 years in UK) in Ward

Those Favouring Reduced Immigration, by class: Role of Transience

Least Renters

2 3 4 Most Renters

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

UpperMiddleWorkingBase

Reduce Immigration a lot

• 59.7% of white UK born respondents agree

nworkingmiddle upper working

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

Contact Effect on Opposition to Immig-ration, by Class

t-statisticcoefficient

nworking

middleupper

working

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

-0.014

-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

Contact Effect on 'Reduce immigration a lot', by Class

t-statisticcoefficient

Conclusion

• Local context matters for views on immigration and vice-versa

• Whites in diverse English wards more positive about immigration

• Not because intolerant whites have self-selected out

• But in part because whites in diverse areas are more transient

• Some support for contact theory: more in ameliorating strong opposition than in promoting acceptance of current levels

• Limited effect on white working class attitudes• White attitudes to immigration may be softened by

contact; however LA-level diversity may increase threat effect (further research will use multilevel analysis to parse this)

• Further research: 4 focus groups; expand analysis to 5 waves of Citizenship Survey

Is there 'White Flight' in England?

Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.ukhttp://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass

twitter: @epkaufm