iscram2017 integrativeriskid 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzr17.pdf · glantz & ritter...

12
Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017 Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds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¶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¶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

Upload: others

Post on 09-Oct-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.363

Page 2: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

o

364

Page 3: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.365

Page 4: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

relative risks

366

Page 5: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.367

Page 6: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.368

Page 7: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

Natural Risks in Literature: Weather, Geology, Disease

Man-Made Risks in Literature: Crowd-Related and Terrorism

369

Page 8: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

Practice-Based: Subject Matter Expert Guidelines

370

Page 9: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

Creative-Methods: Structured Analytics

371

Page 10: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

Afro-European Conference for Industrial Advancement: Proceedings of the First International Afro-European Conference for Industrial Advancement

Event-driven agility of crisis management collaborative processes.

Agility of crisis response, from adaptation to forecast: Application to a French road crisis management use case

Agility of crisis response: Gathering and analyzing data through an event-driven platform.

BBC,

Crosstalk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, 14

The New York Times,

A tradecraft primer: Structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis

Best practices in anti-terrorism security (BPATS) for sporting and entertainment venues: Resource guide

Los Angeles Times,

372

Page 11: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

Designing resilience: Preparing for extreme events

Reuters,

Rampart: A service and agent-based architecture for anti-terrorism planning and resource allocation.

ISO 31000:2009

The Delphi method: Techniques and applications.

Towards a security science through a specific theory and methodology

Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80

Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 17

The Washington Post

Intercollegiate athletics safety and security: Best practices guide

Special Publication 800-30 Revision 1

Surveillance technologies and early warning systems: Data mining applications for risk detection

Human-system integration in the system development process: A new look, Committee on Human-System Design Support for Changing Technology.

Predicting patient presentation rates at mass gatherings using machine learning.

Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning for IT Professionals (Second Edition)

PLoS Currents, 4, e4fca9ee30afc4. http://doi.org/10.1371/4fca9ee30afc4

373

Page 12: ISCRAM2017 IntegrativeRiskID 397aacs.ist.psu.edu/papers/glantzR17.pdf · Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security WiPe Paper – Planning,

Glantz & Ritter Integrative Risk Identification Approach for Mass-Gathering Security

WiPe Paper – Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference – Albi, France, May 2017

Tina Comes, Frédérick Bénaben, Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, eds.

Environmental Management and Health, 13

Global risk agility and decision making

Applied Mechanics and Materials, 347-350

Advance Journal of Food Science and Technology, 8

Principles of risk analysis: Decision making under uncertainty

374