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Islamic State's European targets

20 Apr 2016 IHS Economics and Country Risk

 Analyst Contact Details: Kit Nicholl

 Armed police officers take part in a raid in the Molenbeek neighbourhood

of Brussels, Belgium, 18 March 2016.

PA.25864919

Following the 13 November 2015 attacks in Paris and those on 22 March 2016 in Brussels, further attacks inspired or co-ordinated by the Islamic State are highly likely to be launched in

Western Europe. These attacks are likely to focus on soft targets with maximum potential for mass civilian casualties.

The Paris attacks represented a progression in an evolving

Islamic State strategy and a step change in intensity, rather

than a radical change of direction.  The Paris attacks, utilising

well-trained, armed, organised, and co-ordinated teams of attackers

, represented the successful culmination of a strategic progression

that the Islamic State had been attempting to effect for almost a

year. One hundred and thirty people died and approximately 370

were injured. There had previously been several disrupted Islamic

State plots, including in Verviers (Belgium) in January 2015 and on

an Amsterdam-to-Paris train in August 2015, that had underlined

the group's intent to use returned fighters from Syria to launch

mass-casualty attacks with military-standard weapons in European

urban centres. On 22 March 2016, 35 people were killed and 340

injured by suicide improvised explosive devices (IEDs) at Zaventem

airport and Maelbeek metro station in Brussels.

There is an elevated risk of attacks against soft targets, aimed

at incurring mass casualties. Co-ordinated attacks using returnee

fighters or local Islamist militants in contact with Islamic State

foreign fighters in Syria, Iraq, and Libya are increasingly likely.

Nonetheless, low-capability attacks carried out by lone actors

radicalised by the Islamic State's ideology, but with no actual links

to the group, are likely to occur with greater frequency. Attacks are

most likely to be carried out using blades, vehicles,

military-standard firearms, small IEDs in suicide vests, and (as

seen in Brussels with suitcase bombs containing approximately 50

kilos of TATP) larger IEDs. Large car bombs similar to those seen

in theatres such as Iraq and Afghanistan remain less probable. Soft

targets with the maximum potential to cause mass civilian

casualties, as well as social polarisation and the alienation of Muslim minorities, are likely to be prioritised. Aside from crowded spaces such as transport hubs, restaurants, shopping

malls, and concert halls, Jewish and Christian individuals and places of worship (especially on important holidays or celebrations), as well as security forces, are most likely to be

targeted. The UEFA Euro 2016 football tournament due to be held in France between 10 June and 10 July is certain to be a prime target for Islamist terrorists. It recently emerged that

the Brussels attackers had intended to target the tournament before having to accelerate their plans, most probably in reaction to the capture of accused Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam

Countries that support the US-led coalition against the Islamic State are most likely to be targeted by militant Islamist terrorist attacks.  Recent patterns of Islamic State

attacks outside the group's core areas of Syria and Iraq show that its external activity is likely to target states and groups that are confronting it militarily or conducting counter-terrorism

campaigns against it. In Western Europe the risk is highest in countries with large Muslim minorities, particularly those that have contributed large numbers of foreign fighters to militant

Islamist groups. As a result, Islamist militants are most likely to stage attacks in France, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Spain. The cities at greatest risk

of attack include Paris, Toulouse, Lyon, Brussels, and London. In Germany, aside from Frankfurt ,Berlin and Munich, there is also a heightened risk of attacks in Leipzig and Dresden,

the heartland of the anti-Islamic movement Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West (Patriotische Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes: PEGIDA). This

would be consistent with the Islamic State's strategy of driving a wedge into social fault lines.

Indicators of changing risk environment

Under increased military pressure from the US-led coalition and Russia/Iran, the Islamic State reaches an accommodation with its main Al-Qaeda-affiliated rival, Jabhat al-Nusra. This

would increase the likelihood of co-operation between the two groups in plotting a major attack on European soil.

 A steady rise in the number of European foreign fighters fleeing the territory controlled by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq as a consequence of increased military pressure from

coalition airstrikes.

 A European-led military intervention in Libya against the Islamic State's local affiliate, which would push the group to stage retaliatory attacks in Europe and would incentivise the group

to target countries such as Italy.

 As a means of radicalising European Muslims further, the Islamic State engages in provocative attacks against Christian and right-wing symbols.

For more on the terrorism risks in Western Europe, please contact Kit Nicholl (kit.nicholl@ihs.com ).