Forward Capacity Market Net Regional Clearing Price and Effective Charge-Rate Forecast

Purpose/Disclaimer:This report is designed to assist participants in estimating future Forward Capacity Market monthly cost allocations to load obligation. The report uses historical and estimated data (which may not be accurate and which in many cases will change before the capacity commitment period) to forecast net regional clearing prices and effective charge-rates for the FCM. THE FORECASTED NRCP AND FORECASTED EFFECTIVE CHARGE-RATE VALUES ARE ESTIMATES ONLY AND WILL NOT EQUAL THE FINAL NRCP OR FINAL EFFECTIVE CHARGE-RATE VALUES THE ISO USES TO SETTLE THE CAPACITY COMMITMENT PERIOD.How often will this NRCP forecast be updated? ARA annual reconfiguration auctionThis NRCP forecast will be updated after the release of the results of each of annual reconfiguration auction. CCP capacity commitment periodA chart at the top of the forecast information indicates which auctions are reflected in this report. CLO capacity load obligationCan you identify the timing of each of the annual reconfiguration auctions? CSO capacity supply obligationARA 1 – Mid June two years before CCP - Example: June 2017 for 2019/2020 CCP CTR capacity transfer right(s)ARA 2 – Mid August one year before CCP – Example: August 2018 for 2019/2020 CCP CZ capacity zoneARA 3 – Mid March just before CCP – Example: March 2019 for 2019/2020 CCP FCA forward capacity auctionWhen are results for each of the annual reconfiguration auctions released? FCM forward capacity marketAnnual reconfiguration auction results are released approximately two weeks after the auction closes. kW-m, or kW-month kilowatt-monthAre any FCM cost-related values not included in this forecast? LSE load-serving entityThis forecast does not include estimates of peak energy rent adjustments, Hydro-Quebec interconnection capability credit, or demand response penalties. LZ load zoneWhat sign conventions are used in this forecast? MW megawatt(s)Load based megawatt quantities are showed as negative values. Most entries in this report, including charges to load, are characterized as positive values. NEMA Northeastern MassachusettsWho can I call if I have questions about this NRCP forecast? NRCP net regional clearing priceAll questions should be directed to ISO New England Customer Support at 413-540-4220 or via email at custserv@iso-ne.com. PLC peak load contributionCan I perform the calculations shown in this report? PPU pool-planned unitThe calculation methodology is described below. The entries in the forecast are the result of calculations that may use more decimal-point precision than shown here. RI Rhode IslandIf the calculations are reperformed using the input data in the report, some results may vary slightly from the report values. ROP rest of poolCalculation Descriptions: SA CTR specifically allocated CTR

Capacity Zone NRCP Forecast SA PPU CTR specifically allocated pool-planned unit CTRo CZ NRCP CSO MW = the sum of CSO MW by CZ, excluding SSO and CSO bilaterals SEMA Southeastern Massachusettso CZ NRCP Total Payment $ = Sum CSO total payments (CSO MW * payment rate * 1,000), excluding SSO and CSO bilaterals SS self-supplyo CZ NRCP Rate = (CZ NRCP payment $ / CZ CSO MW) / 1,000 SSO self-supply obligation

Capacity Load Obligation Forecasto LZ Peak Load Contribution MW = 5-year average of PLCs summed by load zoneo CZ Peak Load Contribution MW = LZ PLCs summed by capacity zoneo CZ LSE self-supply MW = sum of LSE self-supply MW in the capacity zoneo PLC MW reduced by LSE SS MW = CZ PLC MW + CZ LSE self-supply MW o CLO MW = total NRCP CSO MW *(CZ PLC MW reduced by LSE SS/ Total PLC MW reduced by LSE SS) * -1

CTR Fund ForecastFor an import zone:o CTR MW = [(CZ CLO MW * -1) - CZ NRCP CSO MW]o CTR $/kW-m = NRCP CZ – NRCP ROPo CTR $ = (CTR MW * CTR $/kW-month * 1,000)For an export zone:o CTR MW = CZ NRCP CSO MW – (CZ CLO MW * -1)o CTR $/kW-m = NRCP ROP – NRCP CZo CTR $ = (CTR MW * CTR $/kW-month * 1,000)

Specifically Allocated CTR Forecasto SA PPU CTR MW = quantity based on Market Rule 1, Section 13.7.3.3.6o LSE PPU SS MW = quantity based on Market Rule 1, Section 13.1.6.2o Net SA PPU CTR MW = (SA PPU CTR MW - LSE PPU SS MW) o CTR $/kW-m = the difference between the CZ and ROP FCA payment rates o SA PPU CTR $ Value = CTR $/kW-m * net SA CTR MW * 1,000Note: SA CTR for transmission upgrades are not applicable in this CCP.

Total Cost Forecasto CZ Total Load Payments = (CZ CLO MW * -1) * CZ NRCP * 1,000 (shown as positive value)o CZ Residual CTR $ = CZ CTR $ - CZ SA CTR $ o CZ Share of Export Residual CTRs = % for the CZ of an export zone's residual CTR $o CZ Total Costs = CZ total load payments - CZ residual CTR $ - CZ share of export residual CTR $o CZ Effective Charge-Rate = CZ total costs/CZ CLO MW/1,000

List of FCM Acronyms

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FCA ARA1 ARA2 ARA3x x

Capacity Zones

CCP ID CCP Description Capacity Zone ID Capacity Zone Name Capacity Zone Type1339 2021-22 8500 Rest-of-Pool ROP1339 2021-22 8505 Northern New England Export1339 2021-22 8506 Southeast New England Import

NRCP CSO MW (excludes self-supply and CSO bilaterals)

Capacity Zone 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05

TOTAL 33,402 33,402 33,402 33,402 33,680 33,680 33,681 33,681 33,681 33,681 33,680 33,680Rest-of-Pool 15,296 15,296 15,296 15,296 15,292 15,292 15,308 15,308 15,308 15,308 15,292 15,292Northern New England 7,519 7,519 7,519 7,519 7,737 7,737 7,720 7,720 7,720 7,720 7,737 7,737Southeast New England 10,588 10,588 10,588 10,588 10,651 10,651 10,652 10,652 10,652 10,652 10,651 10,651

NRCP Total Payment $ (excludes self-supply and CSO bilaterals)TOTAL 170,358,564 170,358,564 170,358,564 170,358,564 171,426,417 171,426,417 171,429,446 171,429,446 171,429,446 171,429,446 171,426,417 171,426,417

Rest-of-Pool 75,592,798 75,592,798 75,592,798 75,592,798 75,561,360 75,561,360 75,635,882 75,635,882 75,635,882 75,635,882 75,561,360 75,561,360Northern New England 34,306,433 34,306,433 34,306,433 34,306,433 35,368,512 35,368,512 35,294,055 35,294,055 35,294,055 35,294,055 35,368,512 35,368,512Southeast New England 60,459,333 60,459,333 60,459,333 60,459,333 60,496,545 60,496,545 60,499,509 60,499,509 60,499,509 60,499,509 60,496,545 60,496,545

NRCP, $/kW-monthRest-of-Pool 4.942 4.942 4.942 4.942 4.941 4.941 4.941 4.941 4.941 4.941 4.941 4.941Northern New England 4.563 4.563 4.563 4.563 4.572 4.572 4.571 4.571 4.571 4.571 4.572 4.572Southeast New England 5.710 5.710 5.710 5.710 5.680 5.680 5.680 5.680 5.680 5.680 5.680 5.680

CCP 2021-22

**** Capacity Zone NRCP Forecast ****

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Load Zone Peak Load Contribution MW (5-year average)

Load Zone ID Load Zone Name Capacity ZonePeak Load

Contribution4001 .Z.MAINE Northern New England -1,7834002 .Z.NEWHAMPSHIRE Northern New England -2,2734003 .Z.VERMONT Northern New England -8144004 .Z.CONNECTICUT Rest-of-Pool -6,2554005 .Z.RHODEISLAND Southeast New England -1,7544006 .Z.SEMASS Southeast New England -3,0834007 .Z.WCMASS Rest-of-Pool -3,0224008 .Z.NEMASSBOST Southeast New England -4,920

Capacity Zone Peak Load Contribution MW

Capacity Zone 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05Rest-of-Pool -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277 -9,277Northern New England -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870 -4,870Southeast New England -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756 -9,756

LSE Self-supply MWRest-of-Pool 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310Northern New England 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653Southeast New England 681 681 681 681 681 681 681 681 681 681 681 681

Peak Load Contribution MW reduced by LSE Self-supply MWTOTAL -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258 -22,258

Rest-of-Pool -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967 -8,967Northern New England -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216 -4,216Southeast New England -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075 -9,075

Capacity Load Obligation MWRest-of-Pool -13,456 -13,456 -13,456 -13,456 -13,568 -13,568 -13,569 -13,569 -13,569 -13,569 -13,568 -13,568Northern New England -6,327 -6,327 -6,327 -6,327 -6,380 -6,380 -6,380 -6,380 -6,380 -6,380 -6,380 -6,380Southeast New England -13,618 -13,618 -13,618 -13,618 -13,732 -13,732 -13,732 -13,732 -13,732 -13,732 -13,732 -13,732

**** Capacity Load Obligation Forecast ****

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Import Zone CTR MW [(CZ CLO * -1) - CZ NRCP CSO]

Capacity Zone 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05Southeast New England 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,080 3,080 3,080 3,080 3,080 3,080 3,080 3,080

Import Zone CTR $/kW-month ( NRCP CZ - NRCP ROP )Southeast New England 0.768 0.768 0.768 0.768 0.738 0.738 0.739 0.739 0.739 0.739 0.738 0.738

Import Zone CTR $ ( $/kW-month * CTR MW * 1,000 )Southeast New England 2,328,053 2,328,053 2,328,053 2,328,053 2,274,812 2,274,812 2,275,347 2,275,347 2,275,347 2,275,347 2,274,812 2,274,812

Export Zone CTR MW (CZ NRCP CSO - (CZ CLO * -1))Northern New England 1,191 1,191 1,191 1,191 1,357 1,357 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,357 1,357

Export Zone CTR $/kW-month ( NRCP ROP - NRCP CZ )Northern New England 0.379 0.379 0.379 0.379 0.370 0.370 0.369 0.369 0.369 0.369 0.370 0.370

Export Zone CTR $ ( $/kW-month * CTR MW * 1,000 )Northern New England 451,733 451,733 451,733 451,733 501,347 501,347 495,088 495,088 495,088 495,088 501,347 501,347

Import Zone SA PPU CTR MW

Capacity Zone 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05Southeast New England 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 395

Import Zone LSE PPU SS MWSoutheast New England 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379

Import Zone NET SA PPU CTR MWSoutheast New England 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Import Zone CTR $/kW-monthSoutheast New England 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Import Zone SA PPU CTR $ ( $/kW-month * NET SA PPU CTR MW * 1,000 )Southeast New England 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Export Zone SA PPU CTR MW Northern New England 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Export Zone LSE PPU SS MWNorthern New England 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336

Export Zone NET SA PPU CTR MWNorthern New England 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Export Zone CTR $/kW-monthNorthern New England 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Export Zone SA PPU CTR $ ( $/kW-month * NET SA PPU CTR MW * 1,000 )Northern New England 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

**** CTR Fund Forecast ****

**** Specifically Allocated CTR Forecast ****

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Capacity Zone Total Load Payments $ (CZ CLO * CZ NRCP * 1,000)

Capacity Zone 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05Rest-of-Pool 66,502,714 66,502,714 66,502,714 66,502,714 67,043,910 67,043,910 67,040,786 67,040,786 67,040,786 67,040,786 67,043,910 67,043,910Northern New England 28,870,787 28,870,787 28,870,787 28,870,787 29,166,757 29,166,757 29,166,535 29,166,535 29,166,535 29,166,535 29,166,757 29,166,757Southeast New England 77,764,848 77,764,848 77,764,848 77,764,848 77,991,909 77,991,909 77,992,561 77,992,561 77,992,561 77,992,561 77,991,909 77,991,909

Capacity Zone Residual CTR $ (CZ CTR $ - CZ SA CTR $)Northern New England 451,733 451,733 451,733 451,733 501,347 501,347 495,088 495,088 495,088 495,088 501,347 501,347Southeast New England 2,328,053 2,328,053 2,328,053 2,328,053 2,274,812 2,274,812 2,275,347 2,275,347 2,275,347 2,275,347 2,274,812 2,274,812

Capacity Zone Share of Export Residual CTR % (per unit share of 1.0)Rest-of-Pool 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Northern New England 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Southeast New England 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Capacity Zone Total Costs $ (includes impact of Residual CTR $)TOTAL 170,358,564 170,358,564 170,358,564 170,358,564 171,426,417 171,426,417 171,429,446 171,429,446 171,429,446 171,429,446 171,426,417 171,426,417

Rest-of-Pool 66,278,199 66,278,199 66,278,199 66,278,199 66,794,737 66,794,737 66,794,723 66,794,723 66,794,723 66,794,723 66,794,737 66,794,737Northern New England 28,870,787 28,870,787 28,870,787 28,870,787 29,166,757 29,166,757 29,166,535 29,166,535 29,166,535 29,166,535 29,166,757 29,166,757Southeast New England 75,209,577 75,209,577 75,209,577 75,209,577 75,464,923 75,464,923 75,468,188 75,468,188 75,468,188 75,468,188 75,464,923 75,464,923

Capacity Zone Effective Charge-Rate $/kW-month (CZ Total Costs / CZ CLO / 1,000)Rest-of-Pool 4.925 4.925 4.925 4.925 4.923 4.923 4.923 4.923 4.923 4.923 4.923 4.923Northern New England 4.563 4.563 4.563 4.563 4.572 4.572 4.571 4.571 4.571 4.571 4.572 4.572Southeast New England 5.523 5.523 5.523 5.523 5.496 5.496 5.496 5.496 5.496 5.496 5.496 5.496

**** Total Cost Forecast ****

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