InsightGlobal Feed Protein OutlookHIGHLIGHTS OF THE ISSUE: • In the coming four decades, there will be two billionmorepeople to feed. Never before, has humanity seen such ademandincrease.

• It becomes clear that the challenge of feeding the worlddepends for a large part on future consumption of animalprotein.

•Poultrymeatproductionroseto101MMTin2011,makingit likely thatpoultrywillbecomemostproducedmeat in thenextfewyears.

•Livestock products provide 34 percent of protein and 16percentoftheenergyconsumedinhumandiets.

•Estimatessayglobally960mmtfeedproducedinorganizedsector in 2012 and FAOSTAT estimates says total feedproductionabout1200mmt.

•PoultrysectorandAsiaregiondominateswith43.61percentand34.94percentshareinglobalcompoundfeedproductionduring2011.

•Soyismajorsourceofproteinproduced(56%)globallyandsoybeanmealasaproteinsourcefollowedbyrapeseedmeal.

•FAOestimatesvisualizeabout2.7percentand1.8percentgrowth insoyproduction innext20and40 years,against7-10percentinpoultry.

•Efficientutilizationofalternateplantproteinsourceswillbeamajorchallengeforasustainablegrowthandfoodproteinproduction.

•Salmonellacontamination,BSE(EspeciallyamajorconcerninEU)anddioxinsarethemajorconcernsinusingmeatandbonemeal.

•Decreasingexcessiveproteininfeedbysupplementationofaminoacids isthemostcost-effectivewaytosolvethefewproblems.

Thesizeoftheworldpopulationisamongthemostsignifi-cantchangesforthefuture.Therearemanychallenges,asthemediatellsusonadailybasis,butthereareopportunities.Thefirst and themainof theseopportunities is thepopulation in-creaseitself.Inthecomingfourdecades,therewillbetwobillionmorepeopletofeed.Neverbefore,hashumanityseensuchademandincrease.

Population gains in developing countries, along with in-creased urbanization and expansion of the middle class, areparticularlyimportantfortheprojectedgrowthinglobalfoodde-mand.Youngerpopulationcohortswhoconsumelargerquanti-tiesoffoodofincreasinglydiversetypesdominatepopulationsindevelopingcountries,incontrasttothoseindevelopedcoun-tries.

Not only the number of peoplewill increase, but the con-sumption pattern will change, too. This ismainly among thegrowingmiddleclass,whichisreadytodrivethefoodindustry.Thechangeofthetypeoffoodthatconsumersofthemiddleclassofemergingcountrieswilldemandwillgobeyondswitch-ingfromastarch-baseddiettoananimal-protein-richdiet;thetypeofanimalproteintheywilleatwillchange,too.

Issue01|2015

Insight

Itbecomesclearthechallengeoffeedingtheworlddependsforalargepartonfutureconsumptionofanimalprotein.Meatproductionrosefrom297milliontonsin2011,anincreaseof0.8percentover2010levelsandwasprojectedtoreach302milliontonsin2012.

Porkwasthemostpopularmeatin2011,accountingfor37percentofbothmeatproductionandconsumption,at109mil-liontons.Poultrymeatfollowed,with101milliontonsproduced,an increaseof3percent,making it likely thatpoultrywill be-comethemostproducedmeatinthenextfewyears.

This forecast shows amassive increase in animal proteindemandtosatisfythegrowthinthehumanpopulation.Asiaisexperiencingtheworld’shighestgrowthratesinproductionandconsumptionoflivestockproducts(meat,milkandeggs).Thereareissuestoaddress,suchastheenvironmentalandfeedsup-plyproblemsarisingfromtheconcentrationoflivestockproduc-tion.

Forexample,China,withapopulationof1.5billion, an in-creaseofmeatconsumptionof30kgpercapitaby2050(pres-ently 50kg) would result in the need to produce three timesmoremeat.Theneedforfeed,excludinggrass,wouldbebetween100and150milliontonsofgrains.

TheIndianpopulation,althoughstilllargelyvegetarian,isalsochangingitseatinghabits.Meatproductionisincreasingthere,butnotinsuchdramaticproportionsasinChina.Nonetheless,with a population of 1.2 billion people, any incrementalmeatconsumptionwillhaveconsequencesondemandandsupply.

Different animal specieshavedifferent levelsof feedeffi-ciency.Ittakesabout1.8kilogramoffeedtoproduce1kilogramofchickenmeat.Ittakesabout3kilogramsoffeedtoproduce1kilogramofpigmeat.Theamountofgrainusedtoproduce1 kilogramof beef varies dependingonhowmuchgrass theanimalisfed.

LIVESTOCK REVOLUTION:

Arevolutionistakingplaceinglobalagriculturethathaspro-found implications forhumanhealth, livelihoodsand theenvi-ronment.Populationgrowth,urbanizationandincomegrowthindevelopingcountriesarefuelingamassiveincreaseindemandforfoodofanimalorigin.

Domesticanimalscontinuetomakeim-portantcontributionstoglobalfoodsupplyand,asaresult,animalfeedshavebecomean increasingly critical component of theintegrated food chain. Livestock productsaccountforabout30percentoftheglobalvalueofagriculture,19percentofthevalueoffoodproduction,andprovide34percentofproteinand16percentoftheenergyconsumedinhumandiets.Meetingconsumerdemandformoremeat,milk,eggsandotherlivestockproductsisdependentontheavailabilityofregularsuppliesofappropriate,cost-effectiveandsafeanimalfeeds.

Several contributors referred to the strongly demand-led‘livestockrevolution’thatistakingplace,asaresultoftherapidlygrowingworldpopulation, incomegrowth, increasingurbaniza-tion,changesinlifestylesandfoodpreferences.

Feedgrainsthoughttocompetedirectly,orintheuseofland,withgrainsforhumanconsumptionandbecausethereisineffi-cientuseoffeedandenergyinsomelivestocksystems,isoftenblamedforthisoccurrence.

FEED PRODUCTION:

InternationalFeedIndustryFederation(IFIF)estimatesabout873mmt compound animal feedwas produced during2011(About 10% growth estimate says 960 mmt in 2012) andFAOSTATestimatessaystotalfeedproductionwasabout1200mmt.Amongthecompoundfeedsectorpoultryleadswith43.61percent, followed by ruminant (25.83%) and swine (23.24%)feeds.Althoughaquaculture is relatively low (3.29%), there isanincreasingdemandforfeedforfarmedfishandcrustaceans.Amongtheregions,Asiadominateswith305mmtfollowedbyEurope(200mmt),NorthAmerica(185mmt)andLatinAmeri-ca(125mmt)during2011.

Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption 2000-2050

Source: OECD Development Centre Working Paper 285

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

OthersEUUnited StatesJapanOther AreaIndiaChina

Global Feed Contribution (%) by Species (2011)

Global Feed Contribution (%) by Region (2011)

Source: FAOSTAT

Poultry 43.61%

Asia 34.94%

Ruminant 25.83% Europe

22.91%

North America

๑21.19%

Latin America

๑14.32%๑ Swine 23.24%

Middle East/Africa 4.03%

Aqua 3.29%

Others 4.03%

Others 1.26%

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Thegrowthindemandforlivestockproductssuggeststherewillbeaconsequentriseindemandforanimalfeed,notonlyofcereals,butalsoofotherfeedsandparticularlyproteins.Inthemeantime, it is possible tomakebroad calculations on futureprospectsbasedonassumptionsonfeedconversionratiocon-cerningtheuseoffeedforpigs,poultry,dairycowsandotherruminants.

Source: Overview of world feed protein needs and supply - Andrew W. Speedy

Internationaltradeofrawmaterialsisthekeytotheglobalfeedindustry.Suchfeedsareformulatedandmilledlocally.Theavailabilityofimportedproteinmaterialsisoftenessentialforlo-calfeedmanufacture.Historically,thefeedindustryhasalsoex-ploitedprice-supportedinexpensivegraintradedontheglobalmarket.

Considerableeffortsarebeingmadetoutilizemorediverselocalsourcesoffeedingredients,inparticularproteinmaterials,inmanydevelopingcountries(e.g. India). Insomeothercoun-tries(e.g.Thailand),forpoultryenterprises,thereisaheavyandincreasingrelianceonsoybeanmealandfishmeal.

PROTEIN NEED:

Protein isanessentialkey ingredientofanimal feeds. It isnecessaryforanimalgrowth,bodymaintenance,theproductionof young and the output of such products asmilk, eggs andwool.Intraditionallowoutputfarmingsystems,theproteinsup-plycanbemetfromplantsandcropsgrownlocally,aswellasfromanimalproteinsources.Higheroutputanimalproductionisnowincreasinglyimportantforcommerciallivestockandmixedfarm viability and nutrition (particularly protein) requirementshavebecomemuchmoredemanding.

Theremaybesomedivergencefromtheuseofcerealsforfeedbuttheneedforproteinfeedscannotbeavoided.Aboveall,qualityproteinwillberequiredtosatisfytheincreaseinmilkandmeatproduction,particularlyasthelatterwillcomemostlyfrompoultryandswine.Theprojectiongivenhereisbasedontheassumptionthat15percentofthefeedwillbeproteinfeeds.

Projected world growth in protein cakes and meals [based on protein feeds making up 15% of feed diet]

250

200

150

100

50

0

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Source: FAOSTAT

Ontheproductionside,thetrendhasbeenforfouroilcrops(soybeans,oilpalm,sunflowerseedandrapeseed)andasmallnumberofcountries, toprovidemuchofthe increase inworldoutput.Theprojectionsoflanduseinthedevelopingcountriesindicatethatoilcropswillcontinuetoaccountforagoodpartoffutureexpansionofharvestedarea.

SOYA DOMINANCE:

Global trade in soybeans and soybean products has risenrapidlysincetheearly1990s,andhassurpassedglobaltradeinwheat—thetraditional leader inagriculturalcommoditytrade—andintotalcoarsegrains(corn,barley,sorghum,rye,oats,millet,andmixedgrains).Continuedstronggrowth inglobaldemandforvegetableoilandproteinmeal,particularlyinChinaandoth-erAsian countries, is expected tomaintain soybeanand soy-bean-product tradewellabovewheatandcoarsegrains tradethroughoutthenextdecade.

Share of different protein sources used in animal feeds

Source: FAOSTAT

Soybeans 56%

Rapeseed 13%

Cottonseed 10%

Sunflowerseed 9%

Peanut 8%

Palm Kernel 3%

Copra 1%

Other feed Cow feed Pig feed Layer feed Broiler feed

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Calculations on future prospects based on assumptions on feed conversion ration concerning the use of feed for pigs, poultry, dairy cows and other ruminants.

milliontons

milliontons

InsightThisillustratestheimportanceofsoyabeans,oilpalm,rape-

seedandsunflower.Cottonseedandpeanutareproducedinahigherproportionbutusageinanimalfeed,especiallyforpoultryandpigs,isstilllimited.Exceptforsoya,thishasfurtherimplica-tionsforanimalnutritionduetotheusagelevelsandutilizationlevelsbytheanimalsitself.Ontheotherhand,fishmealproduc-tionhasnot increasedmarkedlyover the last20yearsand isunlikelytodosofromconventionalsources.

PROTEIN SOURCES:

Oneofthemajorcontributorstothecostofproductioninlive-stockfarming,particularlypigsandpoultry,isthepriceofproteinperunitweightofanimalfeed.Therearemanypossiblesourcesofplantproteinforlivestockrations.Theseincludeoilseeds,by-productsoffoodproduction,arableandforagelegumes.Many

oilseedcropsproduceaby-productmealorcake,whichisgenerallyagoodqualityproteinsourceforlivestockrations.Sever-alcommon,andsomelesscommon,spe-ciescouldbeusedinanexpandedroleasanimalfeeds.

Theincreaseddemandforwhitemeataroundtheworldoverthelast30yearshashelpedtofuelalargeincreaseinthede-mandforhighqualityfeedstuffsfortheselivestocksectors.In-tensivepigandpoultryunitsareparticularlysensitive tocostsofproductionandhaveaneedforhighquality feeds,suchasoilseedmeals,tohelpkeepfeedconversionratioslow.

OILSEED MEAL:

Theoilseedscomplexhasgonethroughaturbulentperiodcharacterizedbyconsiderablepriceswingsandbypricestrend-ing upward compared to previous years. After the dramaticriseandsubsequentdropseenin2008,pricesembarkedonasteadyupwardtrendin2009,reflectingaprogressivetighteninginglobalsupplies,theresumptionindemandgrowth,androbustbuyinginterestbymainimportingcountries.

Major Oilseeds: World Production (MMT)2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Copra 5.88 5.88 6.02 5.54 5.66

Cottonseed 41.08 38.91 43.56 46.63 44.77

PalmKernel 11.75 12.22 12.55 13.31 14.15

Peanut 35.07 33.74 36 35.29 36.69

Rapeseed 57.81 60.96 60.55 61.63 59.26

Soybean 211.64 260.25 263.59 238.73 269.41

Sunflowerseed 33.48 32.18 33.46 40.27 35.86

Total 396.7 444.13 455.72 441.39 465.8

USDA Report on Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (January 2013)

Major Protein Meals: World Production (MMT) 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

CopraMeal 1.87 1.92 2.02 1.86 1.88

CottonseedMeal 14.26 13.86 14.89 15.79 15.74

FishMeal 5.1 4.32 4.55 4.7 4.73

PalmKernelMeal 6.12 6.53 6.58 7.01 7.4

PeanutMeal 6.21 5.79 6.14 6.19 6.36

RapeseedMeal 30.65 33.39 34.94 35.76 34.84

SoybeanMeal 151.73 165 174.54 179.37 183.4

SunflowerseedMeal 12.75 12.96 13.14 15.96 14.51

Total 228.69 243.75 256.81 266.64 268.85

USDA Report on Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (January 2013)

Fish Meal Palm Kernel Meal Soybean Meal Sunflowerseed Meal Total

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Predominant Protein Meals: World Growth Rate (%)

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

-5.00

-10.00

-15.00

-20.00

USDA Report on Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (January 2013)

Theestimatedgrowthratesofvariousoilseedcropscontin-ueddependencyonsoybeanforproteinfollowedbyrapeseedandsunflowermeal,provided theutilizationof the latermealsimprovedsignificantlyinanimallevels.Sincetheestimatesvisu-alizeabout2.7and1.8percentgrowthinsoyproductioninthenext20to40yearsagainsttheannualgrowthrateof7to10percent inpoultry feed.Efficientutilizationofalternativeplantprotein sourceswill beamajor challenge for theanimal feedindustryinthenearfutureforsustainablegrowthoffoodproteinproduction.

Astudyoutlinestherelationshipbetweenoilseedmealsandintensive livestockproduction.Thiswillcontinue toencourageincreasedproductionofoilseedmealsasaproteinsource.Theeconomicrelationshipbetweenoilandmealisacriticalconsid-erationrelativetobothmealavailabilityandtheemphasisplacedonimprovingmealquality.

Thegrossproductvalue(i.e.meal+oil)oftheglobalsoybeancrop,relativetothatforotheroilseeds,isstriking.Ofthemajoroilseedmeals,soybeanmealhasthehighestaveragepriceper

Issue01|2015

ton.This,togetherwithitshighlevelofconsumptionresultsinsoybeanmealrepresenting77percentofthetotalmarketvalueofoilseedmealsinthecontextoftheaboveestimates.Thistes-tifiestothedominanteconomicpositionofsoybeanmealintheglobalmarketforoilseedproteinmeals.Itshigheraveragemar-ketvaluepertonreflectsitsgreaterinherentvaluetotheanimalproductionindustryingeneral.Forthesereasons,soybeanmealis the ‘standard’ towhichother sourcesof protein andaminoacidsmustbecompared.

ANIMAL PROTEINS:

Animal protein sources include fishmeal, meat and bonemeal, bloodmeal, poultry by-product meal (poultry meal) andfeathermeal.Theseareallconcentratedsourcesofproteinandamino acids and some are good sources of vitamins and es-sentialminerals.Sometimesthedigestibilityandthenutritionalvalueofanimalproteinsisunderestimated.Thismisperceptiondates back many years to when poor processing techniquesandequipmentwereusedtorenderanimalby-products.Sincethattime,newprocesses,improvedequipmentandgreaterun-derstandingoftheeffectsoftime,temperatureandprocessingmethodsonaminoacidavailabilityhave resulted insignificantimprovementsinthedigestibilityofanimalproteins.

Digestibility (%) of meat and bone meal since 1984

Amino Acid 1984a 1989b 1990c 1992d 1995e 2001f

Lysine 65 70 78 84 94 92

Threonine 62 64 72 83 92 89

Tryptophan -- 54 65 83 -- 86

Methionine 82 -- 86 85 96 92

Cystine -- -- -- 81 77 76

a) Jorgensen et al., 1984; b) Knabe et al., 1996; c) Batterham et al., 1990; d) Firman, 1992; e) Parsons et al., 1997; f) Pearl, 2001b

Threeprimaryfoodsafetyissuesdominatediscussionsaboutthesafetyoffeedinganimalproteinstoanimals.TheseareSal-monellacontamination(bacterialpathogens),BSE(especiallyamajorconcern inEU)anddioxins.Eachof these issuespres-ent legitimate concerns and all are known to threaten animalandhumanhealth.However, ineachcase, theriskofspread-ing thesecontaminates through finished renderedproducts islargelyperceivedratherthanfactual.Thevalueoftherenderingprocessand finished feedqualitycontrolareamechanism tocontrol risks ofmicrobial pathogens aswell as other hazardsbeingsuggestedandfollowedinmostcountries.

FortheEuropeanUnion,withimplementationofthebanontheuseofmeatandbonemealtogetherwiththepredictedde-

miseoffishmeal,thereistherealizationthatabiggermarketwillbecreated foralternativeprotein feedsources.Thebiologicalvalueofmeat,boneandfishmeal in termsof their recognisedaminoacidprofile,willbedifficult tosubstitute.Effortsareal-readybeingmadeinEuropetorectifyanyshortfallintraditional

proteinfeedsources.TheseeffortsincludeprovidingincentivesforfarmerswithintheEuropeanUniontoexpandtheirplantingsofsoybeans,fieldpeasandbeanstomeetincreasedvegetableproteinrequirements.

In parts of the developing world there is not perhaps thesame luxury of being able to select quality alternative proteinsourcesforlivestockproductionasthereiselsewhere.Thismaybeduetoeconomicreasons.

AMINO ACIDS CONTRIBUTION TO PROTEIN SUPPLY:

Aminoacidsforfeednowplayindispensablerolesinimprov-ingtheefficiencyofanimalproteinproduction,andcontributetoincreasingproteinsupply.Forexample,thecontributionofL-Ly-sineHCltoproteinsupplycanbeestimatedasfollows.Asimpleequationillustratessubstitutionoftheproteinsource(soybeanmeal)withcorn(maize)andL-LysineHCl:

50kg/tonofsoybeanmeal=48.5kg/tonofcorn+1.5kg/tonofL-LysineHCl

Thesubstitutioncorrespondstoa2percentreductionoftheproteinlevelinfeed.Thisequationmeans1tonofL-LysineHClcansavetheuseof33tonsofsoybeanmeal.

Decreasingexcessiveproteininfeedbysupplementationofaminoacidsisthemostcost-effectivewaytosolvetheproblemsofnitrogenpollutionassociatedwithanimalfeeding.Onaverage,reductionofcrudeproteincontentinadietbyonepercentagepointcanyieldaboutaneighttotenpercentreductioninnitro-genexcretion.Reducingthecrudeproteinlevelbythreetofourpercent,withsupplementationoffirst,secondandthirdlimitingamino acids, will yield at least the same growth performancebutwitharound20-30percentreductioninnitrogenexcretion.

InsightImprovingtheefficiencyofproteinutilization inanimalfeedingwiththeapplicationofaminoacids,willbecomemoreimportantinsecuringtheproteinsupplyandprotectingtheenvironment.

MOVING AHEAD:

Inseekingnewproteinsourcesitwouldbehelpfultoknowwhycertainpotentialproteincrops,whicharenotwidelygrowncurrently,arenotmoreattractivetofarmers.Suchastudycouldextendtofeedmanufacturers,togainabetterunderstandingoftheirneedsand theirwillingness togivegreaterconsiderationtocurrentlylesspopularproteinsourcesforfeedincorporation.

Inthisrespect,newfeedstrategiesforparticularpurposes,utilizingalternativeproteinsources inparticular,shouldexploitnutritionmodelstoagreaterextent.Theseshouldalsoinclude,whereappropriate,aneconomicmodellingdimension.

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Animalfeedformulationisacompetitiveprocess.Sincemanyingredientscanbesubstitutedforoneanother,theycontinuallycompeteforuseinanimalfeeds.Suchcompetitionensurestheoptimalutilizationoffeedingredientresources,whilealsoallow-ingforloweranimalproductioncosts.Ultimately,largesegmentsof the humanpopulation benefit from the resultant increasedavailabilityoflowercost,qualityfood.Futurefocusonapracticalperspectiveinbetterutilizationofproteinsandqualitycontrolinanimalproteinsourcespromisestoplayanimportantroleinthiscontinuingprocess.

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MINTREX® CELEBRATES 10 YEARS IN THE GLOBAL TRACE MINERALS MARKET

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