issue no 76

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Issue No : 76 6th January, 2014

Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia | 1


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Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia

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20,000 Palestinian refugees trapped in Yarmouk refugee campon Gaza

FEATURED STORY

ARTICLE

1,873 Palestinian refugees killed in Syria till the end of 2013


Can a Breakthrough Be Made in Pales-tinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations?

IOF Kills Palestinian Youth, Launches Airstrikes on Gaza Strip

Palestinian elderly man dies of tear gas inhalation

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CONTENTS

News of Palestine

20,000 Palestinian refugees trapped in Yarmouk refugee campon Gaza 4

1,873 Palestinian refugees killed in Syria till the end of 2013 5

Haniyeh calls for 2014 to be year of national reconciliation 6

IOF Kills Palestinian Youth, Launches Airstrikes on Gaza Strip 7

Israeli police detain Palestinian girl for trying to stab soldier 8

Jewish extremists ask Israeli government to completely open Al-Aqsa to settlers 9

B›Tselem: 2013 witnesses rise in violence in West Bank 10

Ahrar: 40 Palestinians killed in WB and Gaza during 2013 11

Number of Palestinians in the World is 11.8 Million, says Statistics Bureau 12

Israel Insider

Strong Israeli opposition to any concessions in occupied Jordan Valley 13

Articles & Analyses

Can a Breakthrough Be Made in Palestinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations? 14

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News of Palestine

03/01/2014

The Euro-Mediterranean Ob-servatory for Human Rights (EMOHR) and the Working Group for the Palestinians of Syria (WGPS) have pub-lished a visual report about the humanitarian crisis in the Yarmouk camp for Palestin-ian refugees in the southern suburbs of Damascus. The camp has been witnessing a significant deterioration in health and humanitarian con-ditions over the past year.The Yarmouk camp is the largest refugee camp in Syr-ia, with a population of about 148,000 people.However, the report shows that about 80 per cent of its population has left the camp since the outbreak of the on-going clashes that date back

to December 2012, when the Syrian opposition seized control of the camp from a Palestinian group loyal to the Syrian regime. Regime forces then responded with a bombing campaign, even-tually inflicting a siege upon the population.The report stresses that about 20,000 Palestinian refugees are currently trapped inside the camp, and that the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestin-ian refugees has not been able to deliver any humanitarian aid to those in need inside the camp since last September.The report said that at the end of December 2013, the number of victims from hunger and the im-posed blockade had reached 36 refugees.

In the same context, two Pal-estinian refugees in the Khan Eshieh camp were killed this afternoon after regime forces shelled the camp. The regime has targeted several Palestin-ian camps since the start of the almost three-year-long Syrian conflict.The working group said that the two martyrs fell dead after the refugee camp of Khan Eshieh, located southwest of Damas-cus, was bombed with two ex-plosive barrels: the first landed in the Awel Elmokhayam area in front of Segad Sayda, and the second landed in the vicinity of Al-Tawh`ed Street, which led to the death of the two victims, as well as the injury of many others. Source: Pls48

20,000 Palestinian refugees trapped in Yarmouk refugee campon Gaza

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01/01/2014

The action group for the Pal-estinians in Syria said that 1,873 Palestinian refugees had been killed in Syria since the start of Syria›s conflict and until the end of 2013 .In its annual report, the ac-tion group stated that 1,842 Palestinian refugees were killed in Syria, and 31 oth-ers were killed outside Syria while trying to escape from the bloody events. Approximately, 1,270 Pal-estinian refugees were killed in Palestinian refugee camps, while 572 refugees were killed outside their camps in Syria, the report added.According to the action group›s report, 956 Palestin-ian refugees were killed in Damascus city, 433 Palestin-

ian refugees were killed in Da-mascus countryside, while 196 others were martyred in Dara›a, and 87 refugees were killed in Aleppo, 58 victims were report-ed dead in Homs, and 27 Pal-estinian refugees in Kenitra, 24 refugees in Hama, 22 martyrs in Latakia, and 19 Palestinian vic-tims in Idlib, and 20 Palestinian martyrs were reported in Syria›s border areas and between prov-inces.31 Palestinian refugees died while trying to reach European shores in an attempt to flee the tragic situation in Syria, 15 oth-ers died in Egypt, and 16 more were reported dead in Greece, Malta, Italy, Turkey and Libya.The report clarified that 719 Pal-estinian refugees were killed in Yarmouk refugee camp, 151 Pal-estinian martyrs were reported in Dar›a camp and 95 martyrs in

Husseiniyeh camp, in addition to 58 martyrs in Sbeina refugee camp.58 Palestinians were also killed in Khan al-Shih refugee camp and 39 refugees in Sayeda Ze-inab refand ugee camp, while 36 martyrs were reported in Neirab and 29 in al-Aidin refu-gee camp returnees in Homs, 27 refugees martyred in Handa-rat camp in Aleppo. The report also documented 16 Palestinian martyrs in al-Aidin refugee camp in Hama, 13 mar-tyrs in Jaramana camp, 9 vic-tims in Raml camp in Latakia, 7 Palestinian victims in Khan Dannoun camp, and six mar-tyrs in Dayabia refugee camp, 6 others in Muzeireeb refugee camp in Daraa, and 3 victims in Rukn al-Din in Damascus.

Source: PIC

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Haniyeh calls for 2014 to be year of national reconciliation

01/01/2014Palestinian Prime Minister Is-mail Haniyeh called on Tues-day for presidential, parlia-mentary and National Council elections as soon as possible to demonstrate commitment to national reconciliation. Speaking at a conference about the Palestinian media and challenges held in Gaza, Haniyeh called for 2014 to be the «Year of Reconciliation». He said that each Palestinian faction should «do its utmost to end the political division and unite the occupied West Bank with the Gaza Strip.»Turning to Israel›s Judaisa-tion policies in occupied Jeru-salem, Mr Haniyeh said that a national strategy has to be de-veloped to counter its effects. The strategy, he added, should also cover the slow annexa-tion of the Jordan Valley and expanding settlements across the occupied West Bank. Such a united effort can challenge the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip since 2006.«We have good common ground to start with,» said the prime minister. «We have the reconciliation agreements brokered by Egypt and Qa-tar.»Announcing the formation of municipal councils in the Gaza Strip based on the na-tional agreement, Mr Haniyeh described it as a «goodwill gesture» ahead of tangible

measures towards a comprehen-sive national agreement. «I hope that this happens in the West Bank.»Regarding relations with Egypt, he reiterated that contacts with the Egyptian leadership had not stopped and that his government and movement do not interfere in the internal affairs of any coun-try. «We cannot detach ourselves from Egypt, but nor can Egypt leave us suffering,» he insisted.Rival faction Fatah has said that Hamas should detach itself from the Muslim Brotherhood follow-ing the latter›s designation as a «terrorist organisation» by the interim Egyptian government. In response, the Hamas premier stressed that the movement›s ide-

ology is that of «moderate» Is-lamists.«I cannot imagine that Egypt and Arab brothers are going to punish Hamas, which has sac-rificed thousands of martyrs, stood steadfast in the face of the Israeli project and undermined Israeli plans in the region,» he said.The prime minister criticised the international silence regard-ing the ongoing blockade of the Palestinian refugees in Syria. «It is unethical that the world is looking silently at the massacres by starvation in the Palestinian refugee camps,» he said, citing Al-Yarmouk in the Damascus suburbs as an example.

Source: MEMO

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03/01/2014

Medical sources in the Gaza Strip said Friday morning, that 17-year-old Palestinian Adnan Abu Khater was killed due to injuries sustained Thursday night. The boy Abu Khater was shot by IOF forces on a border fence, east of Jab-aliya village, north of the Gaza Strip.

In a related context, the IOF launched airstrikes on three Gaza Strip targets.

Palestinian sources said Israeli airplanes launched at least one rocket toward an agricultural land in al-Maghazi refugee camp in

the strip; no reports of in-juries. The Israeli airplanes also launched a second strike targeted a site in Beit Ha-noun village, and the third strike targeted the al-Shaja›ya neighborhood, east of Gaza Strip.

Earlier on Thursday, an 85-year-old man was pro-claimed dead after he had in-haled tear gas during an ear-lier Israeli military attack on homes in Kafr Qaddum vil-lage, east of Qalqiliya city.

Palestinian medical sources said the aged man, Sa›eid Ali, was rushed in critical condi-tion to a hospital in Nablus city after suffering health complications resulting from

the tear gas used intensive-ly by Israeli soldiers to dis-perse a Palestinian march.

They added that some of the Israeli tear gas grenades fell onto homes in the vil-lage, including the house of the elderly man.

It was not the first time the Israeli occupation forces deliberately fire tear gas grenades at homes during their suppression of popu-lar protests or events held in the village, and several incidents were reported in which civilians, including children, inside homes suf-fered from tear gas inhala-tion.

Source: PNN + PIC

IOF Kills Palestinian Youth, Launches Airstrikes on Gaza Strip

Palestinian elderly man dies of tear gas inhalation

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Israeli police detain Palestinian girl for trying to stab soldier

04/01/2014

The Israeli occupation police detained on Friday evening a 16-year-old Jerusalem-ite girl for allegedly trying to stab an Is-raeli soldier in the Old City of occupied Jerusalem.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that Is-raeli policemen rounded up the girl after she attacked a soldier with a knife and caused him a slight injury in one of his feet, and took her to an interrogation cen-

ter in the Old City.

In a separate incident, the Israeli magistrates› court in Je-rusalem sentenced an 18- year-old young man named Mo-hamed Abu Khudair to nine months in jail on allegations of throwing stones and disturbing public peace and order.

The court verdict was based on a videotaped recording showing a group of kids throwing stones at Israeli sol-diers on Salahuddin street in Jerusalem.

Source: PICfeet, and took her to an interrogation cen-

Palestinian Cultural

Organization Malaysia

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Jewish extremists ask Israeli government to completely open Al-Aqsa to settlers

02/01/2014

An extremist Jewish group has sent a letter to the Israeli government asking for the occupation forces to allow Israeli Jews and foreign tourists access to all gates lead-ing to Al-Aqsa Mosque, Al-Aqsa Foundation for Waqf and Islamic Heritage revealed on Thursday.

The Foundation said that the so-called Temple Groups and Jewish activists represented by Likud Rabbi Yehu-da Glick sent an urgent letter to the Israeli tourism min-ister, Uzi Landau, putting pressure on him to open all the gates to the Mosque, not only Al-Magharbeh Gate.

According to the Foundation, the letter stated that: «Opening all the gates lessens pressure on Al-Maghar-beh Gate, increases the number of tourists entering into the ‹Mosque›, and accelerates the movement of settlers who invade it from time to time.»

The Foundation noted that the extremists attached an image of settlers and tourists standing in queues in front

of Al-Magharbeh Gate. They expressed an-ger because Muslims can enter into the Mosque from all gates, but Jews and tourists enter only through one gate.

In a statement that included all the details about the letter and the Israeli efforts to Ju-daise the Mosque, the Foundation said that the Temple Groups have been attempting to impose a de-facto Jewish existence inside the Mosque through their continuous inva-sions.

«The full area of Al-Aqsa Mosque, including the Western Wall (Al-Buraq Wall), is owned by Muslims,» the Foundation insisted, «and the continuous settler invasions are just at-tempts to impose a Jewish existence on the Mosque, according to their dream.»

Source: MEMO

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02/01/2014

B›Tselem, The Israeli Informa-tion Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, said in a report Tuesday that the number of Palestinian fa-talities in 2013 by IOF-related violence is the highest in five years.

According to the report, the number of Palestinian martyrs in the West Bank is 27, while in the Gaza Strip it is 9.

The IOF violence against Pal-estinians has increased this year compared to 2012, the re-port reveals.

The report said that the num-ber of Palestinian fatalities has increased during the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations period and it provided details about 21 incidents in the West Bank this year.

Nine of the incidents involved Israeli forces entering Pales-tinian communities to arrest Palestinians, B›Tselem said. In four of these cases, soldiers shot at stone throwers. In an-other four there were exchang-es of live fire. The NGO said it was unable to verify the ninth

incident, in which both sides were said to have shot at each other.

The report said that seven of the incidents involved stone throw-ing. In four of those cases, soldiers fired at Palestinians who were throwing stones at them. In the other three, soldiers fired «while lying in wait to capture the stone throwers,» B›Tselem said.

B›Tselem also stated that this year in the Gaza Strip, Israeli oc-cupation forces killed four Palestinians. Another was killed in a targeted assassination. In the sixth case, the circumstances of the death were unclear. The NGO added that in three instances, the Palestinians were not taking part in hostilities when they were killed.

Jessica Montel, the executive director of B›Tselem, said that the Israeli government has failed to hold soldiers accountable for their actions in spite of a new, more stringent policy adopted al-most three years ago.

Source: PNN

B›Tselem: 2013 witnesses rise in violence in West Bank

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Ahrar: 40 Palestinians killed in WB and Gaza during 2013

02/01/2014

Ahrar Center for Prisoners’ Studies confirmed in its annual report that 40 Palestinians were killed in occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip during 2013 by Israeli occupation forces.

The center’s director Fuad Khuffash stated that there are no data discrepancies between his cen-ter’s annual report and Amnesty and B’Tselem organizations’ reports.

The two human rights organizations have only documented Palestinian martyrs killed by Israeli fire, while Ahrar center has added the names of Captive Movement’s martyrs Ashraf Abu Dra’a, Arafat Jaradat, Maysara Abu Hamdiya, and Hassan al-Turabi who martyred due to Israeli medical negligence policy, he clarified.

According to Ahrar’s report, 31 Palestinians were killed in occupied West Bank, while nine mar-tyrs have been documented in the besieged Gaza Strip by Israeli fire and shells. Source: PIC

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Number of Palestinians in the World is 11.8 Million, says Statistics Bureau

01/01/2014

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) presents the situation of Palestinians at the end of 2013, as follows:

Increase in world population of Palestinians

The projected number of Palestin-ians in the world is 11.8 million, of whom 4.5 million are in Pales-tine, 1.4 million in Israel, 5.2 mil-lion in Arab countries and around 665 thousand in foreign countries.

More than one-third of population in Gaza Strip

The projected number of Pales-tinians living in Palestine at the end of 2013 is 4.5 million: around 2.8 million increased in the West Bank and 1.7 million in the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian refugees make up 44.2% of the Palestinian popula-tion in Palestine: 41.2% of them in the West Bank and 58.8% in the Gaza Strip.

Decline in fertility rate

The total fertility rate declined during 2008-2009 to 4.4 births compared with 6.0 births in 1997. In the Gaza Strip, the rate was 5.2 births compared to 4.0 births in the West Bank, during 2008-2009.

There has been a decline in the

detailed fertility rate, particularly in the early reproductive years (15-24 years).

Decrease in average household size

The average household size in Pal-estine was 5.3 persons in 2012 com-pared to 6.4 in 1997: 5.1 persons in the West Bank and 6.0 persons in the Gaza Strip.

Falling crude birth and mortality rate

The crude birth rate is 32.6 births for every 1000 of population: 29.7 in the West Bank compared to 37.1 in Gaza Strip. The rate is expected to decline to 31.9 by 2015.

The crude death rate is 3.8 deaths for every 1000 of population: 4.0 in the West Bank compared to 3.7 in Gaza Strip. The rate is expected to decline to 3.6 by 2015.

High fertility rate among Palestin-ians in Jordan

The total fertility rate for Palestin-ians living in Jordan was 3.3 births in 2010 compared to 2.5 in Syria in 2010 and 2.8 in Lebanon in 2011.

Youthful Palestinian population in Israel

The number of Palestinians living in Israel is 1.4 million, of whom about 36.1% are aged below 15 years compared to 4.1% aged 65 years and above.

Higher fertility rate among Pales-tinians in Israel than among Jews.

The total fertility rate in 2012 among Palestinians living in Isra-el was 3.3 births compared to 3.0 births among Jews.

The average Palestinian household size in Israel is 4.8 persons. The crude birth rate of Palestinians in Israel exceeded 24.8 births for ev-ery 1000 of population.

The number of Palestinians in his-torical Palestine will exceed the number of Jews, over time.

The number of Palestinians in his-torical Palestine totaled 5.9 million at the end of 2013.

There were 6.0 million Jews at the end of 2012, according to esti-mates by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics and the number is ex-pected to reach 6.1 million Jews by the end of 2013.

The number of Palestinians and Jews will total about 6.4 million each, by the end of 2016, provided that current growth rates remain constant.

However, the number of Palestin-ians in historical Palestine will total 7.2 million, compared to 6.9 Jews by the end of 2020.

Source: IMEMC

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Strong Israeli opposition to any concessions in occupied Jordan

01/01/2013

Deputy Israeli Foreign Minis-ter Ze’ev Elkin expressed on Thursday his refusal to con-sider any framework agree-ment with the Palestinian Au-thority (PA) based on the 1967 borders.

Speaking to Israeli radio, El-kin said: “Israel has to refuse any American framework agreement if it includes the is-sue of the 1967 borders, or if it does not approve Israeli sover-eignty over the Jordan Valley.”

Elkin added: “It is good to have negotiations going on, but it is important that they do not cost Israel an existential

price.” He noted that the govern-ment “must not” commit to is-sues that completely oppose the Likud party’s principles.

US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived on Thursday afternoon in Tel-Aviv. He aims to resuscitate the flagging talks on a two-state solution between Israel and the PA.

During what will be his tenth visit since taking office last year, he is to meet with Israeli Prime Minis-ter Benjamin Netanyahu and PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

The same day Kerry arrived, Is-raeli Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar and a number of Jewish

Home MKs visited the Jordan Valley. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth noted that: “The tour is sending a mes-sage to Kerry on territorial concessions.”

The newspaper added that Sa’ar used the tour to reiterate his opposition to dismantling the occupation in the Jordan Valley. It reported him saying: “Without Jewish settlement, the army has nothing to defend and no reason to be there, and without the army there will be only terror.”

Source: MEMO

By: Khalid Amayreh*

Israel Insider

By: Khalid Amayreh*

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Articles & Analyses

Can a Breakthrough Be Made in Palestinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations?It appears that the Arab Spring’s aftershock/counter-revolution, culminated with the military coup in Egypt, has given a strong push for the peace process with Israel; encouraging the Israeli-Amer-ican party to take advantage of the historical opportunity of-fered by an Arab strategic en-vironment - that is weak, frag-mented, and mired in conflicts and crises - and the Palestinian weakness and division, to try to solve the Palestinian issue and reorder the region in a way that suits Israeli-American in-terests.

Resumption of NegotiationsOn 19/7/2013, US Secretary of State John Kerry, after six rounds in the region spanning the better part of five months, declared that the Palestinians and Israelis have agreed to resume peace talks between them, which had seen a hia-tus lasting almost three years. The date for the resumption of the negotiations was set on 30/7/2013.

Since the negotiations col-lapsed in late 2010, the lead-ership of the Palestine Libera-

tion Organization (PLO) insisted on refusing to continue the talks except after Israeli settlement building in the West Bank (WB) ceases and a new well-defined frame of reference for the ne-gotiations is established, based on Israel recognizing the two-state solution on the basis of the borders of 1967. The PLO then added a demand related to Pal-estinian prisoners in the Israeli jails, especially prisoners who were arrested before the 1993 Oslo Accords.

Practically speaking, the PLO leadership has since waived these conditions, and bowed to the Israeli dictates regarding negotiations in light of contin-ued settlement activity, without a well-defined frame of refer-ence that would be binding for

Israel. This is while Israel has pledged to release prisoners held before Oslo in batches. The PLO leadership over-hyped this “achievement” to cover up its failures over what are otherwise the core compo-nents of the negotiating pro-cess.

The PLO leadership contented itself with clarifications, or so-called “guarantees” pledged during the US campaign to push for the resumption of the negotiations. However, these are merely verbal guarantees (known as Kerry’s plan), pri-marily emphasizing the Pal-estinian people’s right to rule themselves and to achieve their aspirations, in a contigu-ous, sovereign state, in accor-dance to the two-state solution

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The American side is unable (and unwilling) to put pressure on Israel to make “historic” con-cessions or con-cessions that are undesirable to Is-rael.

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based on the borders of 1967 with mutually agreed swaps.

Success Factors in NegotiationsSome pundits believe that there is a chance to make the negotia-tions a success, for the following reasons:

1. The willingness of the PLO/Fatah leadership to com-promise on some Palestinian Fundamentals such as the right of the refugees to return to their lands occupied in 1948, and reaching deals that may be satis-factory to the Israeli side regard-ing the future of Jerusalem, the settlements, land swaps, security guarantees, and establishing a demilitarized state… .

2. The Israeli concerns about missing a historic oppor-tunity to snap up major conces-sions from the Palestinians, in the presence of a weak Pales-tinian leadership, Palestinian division, and stalling efforts for inter-Palestinian reconciliation.

3. The presence of a favor-able regional environment after the severe blow dealt to the Arab Spring in Egypt, and as a result of the faltering march of revolu-tions for change and reform, the decline of the “Refusal Front” (i.e., Syria, Iran, Hamas and Hiz-bullah), Hamas’s loss of much of its previous regional logistical support, the tightened siege on Gaza Strip (GS), and the revival of the “moderate axis,” which

could secure an Arab climate conducive for the peace process.

4. The strong American-Western interest to take advan-tage of the state of chaos, frag-mentation, and weakness, and the conflicts blighting the region, to create a new map more in line

with Israeli-American-Western interests; and the American con-viction that these arrangements cannot be realized except after solving the Palestinian question.

5. The Israeli realization that they have no future in the re-gion except if their state is “nor-malized,” which is not possible except by achieving a peace set-

tlement that puts an end to the conflict.

6. The Israeli awareness of the threat posed by Palestin-ian population growth, inside historic Palestine, to the future of the “Jewish state” and the Jewish identity of Israel.

Failure Factors in NegotiationsOther pundits expect the nego-tiations to fail for several rea-sons, most notably:

1. It is very difficult for the Palestinian side to sell, to its own people, a final agree-ment based on Israeli terms with historical concessions.

2. The Israeli side itself is unprepared to make “historic” concessions for the Palestinian people. For one thing, Israel is led by an extremist govern-ment, in a society that is be-coming increasingly extremist. The Israelis in general agree on what is a “no,” but not on what is a “yes.”

3. The American side is unable (and unwilling) to put pressure on Israel to make “historic” concessions or con-cessions that are undesirable to Israel.

4. The mistrust the Israeli side harbors for the Palestin-ian negotiating party, which is perceived as weak and unrep-resentative of the Palestinian people, and one that may not

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be able to implement its com-mitments. Hence, there is no justification for making sub-stantial concessions that may go in vain.

5. The Arab and Islamic climate is unstable and full of challenges, and thus its inter-actions cannot be controlled and its developments cannot be reassured to. Hence, any guarantees or current Arab partnerships in the peace pro-cess could lose their meanings or legitimacy with any change in the existing regimes.

6. The Israeli negotiating strategy is based on “managing the problem” rather than “re-solving the problem.” It there-fore has a stake in prolonging the negotiations, as much as possible, while continuing to build facts on the ground, in-cluding strengthening Jewish presence, building settlements, and confiscating lands and holy sites; until the goal of im-posing its vision on the other side is achieved, after having invalidated the cards the latter holds.

Course of NegotiationsSince 30/7/2013, more than 20 negotiating rounds were held. Their outcome was frustrating for the Fatah/Palestinian side, as the Israeli side sustained its settlement activities franti-cally, and did not delve into the

core issues of the peace process, nor offer its vision for the final solution. Instead, the Israelis continued to put pressure regard-ing security arrangements and their details, and about recogniz-ing Israel as a state for the Jew-ish people, and did not accept the idea of the Palestinian state

the WB highlands. There was also an Israeli desire to sepa-rate GS from the negotiating process.

The Palestinian negotiating party, which appeared to be engaged in a futile process, submitted its resignation on 30/10/2013 to Palestinian President Mahmud ‘Abbas, who insisted on continuing to negotiate until the end of the deadline set at April 2014. Concerning what the Pales-tinian side has offered in the “compromises market,” the leaks suggest: A demilitarized Palestinian state based on the borders of 1967, possibly start-ing out with temporary borders on 80% of WB, expanding gradually within three years to reach its final borders, with the possibility of maintaining the core settlement blocks through a land swap that does not ex-ceed 2%, proportionately in size and value.

Another offer involves for-feiting the right of Palestine refugees to return to the land occupied in 1948 (i.e., Israel), with willingness to make some concessions in East Jerusalem concerning the Western Wall and the Jewish Quarter (Al-Sharaf Quarter), as well as parts of the Armenian Quar-ter, the Sheikh Jarrah Quarter, and the Jewish cemetery on the Mount of Olives.

A demilitarized Palestinian state based on the bor-ders of 1967, pos-sibly starting out with temporary borders on 80% of WB.

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based on the borders of 1967, or enter negotiations about de-marcating the borders. Reports leaked that there was a request to lease the Jordan Valley re-gion (28% of WB) for 40 years (the Americans proposed 10-15 years that can be renewed), with the settlements clustered in ten settlement blocks, and early warning stations kept in

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Meanwhile, there is declared Palestinian rejection (so far!) of recognizing Israel as a Jewish state or as a state for the “Jewish people,” on the grounds that Israel was already politically recognized in 1993, and that Israel cannot be recog-nized on an ideological basis, something that was not raised in the treaties concluded with Egypt and Jordan.

Possible ScenariosThere are five possible scenari-os for the negotiations:

1. Historic Agreement

This scenario is based on the idea that the Palestinian and Is-raeli sides, and also the Ameri-can and Western side, want to take advantage of the historic opportunity that may not be repeated, to conclude an agree-ment that would decisively settle final status issues. In es-sence, this agreement would approve the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state based on the borders of 1967, with limited land swaps, and a safe corridor between the WB and GS. The settlement blocks would remain, the right of the refugees to return to the Pales-tinian lands occupied in 1948 would be forfeited, and a solu-tion would be reached giving some measure of sovereignty and guarantees to both sides

in East Jerusalem. Most Arab countries would endorse the peace agreement and normaliza-tion, on the grounds of accepting whatever the Palestinians assent to. Celebratory coverage in the media will portray this as a his-toric achievement of establish-ing the Palestinian state, suppos-edly rescuing most of the WB and GS from Israeli occupation and the clutches of the process of “Judaization,” despite the dis-advantages and evils of this new agreement.

2. A New Framework Agreement (Oslo 2)

This scenario is based on the premise that both parties are not completely prepared to reach fi-nal agreements (especially the Israeli side). However, an agree-ment is made by the two sides supported by a favorable re-gional and international climate, focusing on the need to make an important breakthrough, without necessarily settling the issues of the refugees, Jerusalem, and the borders. This means agreeing to establish the Palestinian state within provisional borders, on 60-70% of the WB. Meanwhile, Israel continues to maintain its control over the ports of entry to the state awaiting a final solu-tion.

This is a scenario favored by Israel, albeit it has so far been rejected by the PLO leadership,

fearing for what is temporary to become permanent, and fearing for the other issues to become merely disputes be-tween two states, as is the case with many countries of the world.

3. New Temporary Ar-rangements

This could happen to avoid declaring the failure of the ne-gotiations, by expanding par-tially and in a limited fashion the areas administered by the Palestinian Authority, which is also given further economic in-centives, in addition to releas-ing more prisoners, curtailing checkpoints, and reducing se-curity measures in the WB.

4. Failure of Negotiations, Israeli Unilateral Withdrawal

This is linked to Sharon’s proj-ect, on the basis of which the Kadima party was founded. It is based on the premise that it is impossible to reach a final settlement that both sides can agree to. Therefore, as the plan envisages, the Israeli side must determine by itself the areas that it wants to withdraw from, without consulting the Pales-tinians. This would be offered as a “great sacrifice” for peace, and would turn the Israeli problem with the Palestinians afterwards into a mere border dispute. However, this sce-nario involves great disparity

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in the views of the Israelis who support it: Indeed, some speak about withdrawing from 43% of the WB, while others speak about withdrawing from two-thirds, and others still about withdrawing behind the Sepa-ration Wall (approx. 88%). In any case, the whole of East Je-rusalem, the settlement blocks, and water sources would re-main under Israeli control.

5. Failure of Negotiations, and the Continuation of the Status Quo

It is based on an Israeli reading that does not believe the time is right to make concessions, and that the Palestinian, Arab, and Islamic situation is brittle, weak, torn, and unstable, mean-ing that concessions have no tangible benefits for the Israeli side. Israel also believes in the need to continue to build facts on the ground to ultimately im-pose the Israeli vision of the peace settlement from a prac-tical perspective, allowing the Palestinian Authority to only manage the population at the end, while the land would re-main under Israeli domination.

Any Likely Scenario?It is not easy to determine which is the most likely sce-nario among these scenarios. However, it is possible to speak about a chance to achieve a

breakthrough in the peace pro-cess. Since many of the demands laid on the Palestinians had been already obtained in the past—including most points related to the refugees, Jerusalem, the set-tlements, the security arrange-

ly. This scenario involves some arrangements that will “save face.” There is also the fifth scenario, which holds that ne-gotiations would fail. As for the scenario for a unilateral Israeli withdrawal, this is still unlikely under the current political cir-cumstances, which do not tend to allow a vacuum in the WB without prior arrangements, lest Hamas and the resistance forces fill this vacuum.

As for Palestinians, in such uncondusive atmosphere, and unfair rules of the game, they should pull out from these ne-gotiations, which give a false image of the peace process and the relationship with the Israel, and provides ideal cover for the occupation and Judaization and settlement programs, holding the Palestinian national project hostage to Israeli and American dictates. It is also incumbent upon the Palestinians to give priority to reconciliation and ending the division, rally the Palestinian people’s strengths and huge potential at home and abroad, put the Palestin-ian house in order and reshape its independent decision, and regain the Arab, Islamic, and international dimensions of the Palestinian issue.

* Dr. Mohsen Saleh is the director, Al-Zaytouna Centre of Studies and Consultations, Beirut, Lebanon.

Israel also be-lieves in the need to continue to build facts on the ground

””

ments, and the demilitarized Palestinian state—progressing towards an agreement depends primarily on the extent of Isra-el’s estimation of the situation. So far, this estimation is not in-clined to reach a historic agree-ment ending the conflict. For this reason, Israel might seek to bring about the second scenar-io, involving a new framework agreement without resolving the final issues. In this case, the approval of the Palestinian side will make it a likely scenario, but in case it was rejected, the third scenario will become more like-

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issue no 76

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