issues-10-jul-2012-1042-1
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Economics: Issues10 July 2012
Michael Blythe Chief Economist T. +612 9118 1101 E. [email protected] Mathews Agri Commodities T. +612 9118 1098 E. [email protected]
Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and atww.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.
Global food price inflation risks rising again?
Risks of renewed global food price inflation are lifting. Higher food prices may limit the ability to use monetary stimulus in some economies another downside risk to growth. Australia is less exposed to the global inflation consequences and stands to benefit from higher global food prices.
One of the big themes in HI 2011 was global food price inflation and the policy challenges it posed. Food price concernsthen subsided as supply conditions improved and other issues took centre stage. But one lingering effect is the policytightening pushed through in a number of economies as a response to general inflationary pressures in 2010/11. Thatpolicy shift successfully dealt with the inflation issues but came at the expense of weaker economic activity. And concernsabout hard landings, especially in China.
From that perspective the recent lift in key food prices is of concern. Prices for grains and oilseeds, the staple foodstuff forhuman and livestock populations worldwide, spiked higher in June and have risen further in July. As with any agriculturalcommodity price spike, this episode reflects weather-induced supply issues. Drought is hurting production in keyexporting regions. Growing risks to US crop production is particularly concerning.
Most of the growth in demand for the major crops is coming from China and other emerging and developing economies.These countries would bear the brunt of any sustained lift in staples prices. As a result, global trade flows would beaffected by the possible scarcity of corn/soybeans for export in key exporting nations. Livestock producers wouldexperience input cost pressures. Food & beverage manufacturers would face margin compression. The biofuels sectorcould also be squeezed between higher input costs and falling oil prices. Being the ultimate necessity higher food pricesare hard to avoid. Relative price shifts would affect consumption patterns.
Policy makers remain focused on Europe and central banks typically look through supply-driven price spikes when
thinking about policy settings. But the importance of food in the CPIs of many of the economies affected may limit theability to use monetary stimulus if it were required. Higher food prices would be another downside risk to global growth.
Spikes in food prices can spill over into other areas as well. There are indications that rapid food price rises is oftenfollowed by periods of above-average civil conflict. One negative feedback loop evident from instability in some countrieswas in the geopolitical risk premium added to oil prices at various points over the past year or so. Any indication of socialand political instability in the current environment will weigh on already depressed financial market sentiment.
The Australian economy would be subject to many of the same influences from higher food prices as the rest of the world.Any restraint on Asian economic activity would be a negative for Australian growth prospects. And any impact on globalfinancial markets would be reflected in Australian markets as well.
But there would also be some important differences as well. Australia is a major agricultural producer facing a significantlydifferent supply backdrop. So domestic supply should limit the inflation impact of global production shortfalls. Australia is
also a major agricultural exporter and stands to benefit from higher global food prices. The impact would be much lessthan from higher resource prices. Nevertheless, a repeat of the 20%pa rises in food prices in 2010-11 would be worthclose to an additional $6bn (% of GDP) of additional export income annually (volumes unchanged).
Not all of outcomes would be positive for the Australian economy. Consumers inflation expectations, for example, areconditioned by their experience with items that they purchase frequently. And food is clearly in that group. Higher foodprices could have a negative impact on inflation expectations with a potential to flow back into second round price rises.Part of the general unhappiness evident in the household sector reflects cost of living issues. So higher food prices couldweigh on sentiment and spending appetite.
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Global Markets Research
Economics: Issues
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accompanied the dry conditions and by lateJune the US Drought Monitor reported severe-to-extreme drought throughout most key UScropping areas. Crops have wilted and officialcrop conditions have tumbled. The USDAs UScorn crop ratings slumped from 77% good-to-excellent in mid-May to just 40% by early-July.
As a result, US crop yield estimates are beingrevised lower. For example, we now put the UScorn crop at 13.5bn bushels, 9% lower than theUSDAs current estimate. Under our analysis,corn inventories would decline by 27% in2012/13 (rather than rising 2.2-times aspreviously forecast by the USDA). This shift ininventories raises the possibility of supplyshortages and significantly higher prices.
Similar comments apply to soybeans. We nowbelieve that drought-related declines in yield willsee some demand rationing in HII 2012.
Food prices and the global economy
Most of the growth in demand for the majorcrops is coming from China and the otheremerging and developing economies. Thesecountries would bear the brunt of any significantlift in staples prices.
As a result, global trade flows would be affectedby the possible scarcity of corn/soybeans forexport in key exporting nations. Livestockproducers would experience input cost
pressures. Food & beverage manufacturerswould face margin compression. The biofuelssector could also be squeezed between higherinput costs and falling crude oil prices.
Being the ultimate necessity higher foodprices are hard to avoid. Relative price shiftswould affect consumption patterns.
The direct inflation impact of higher food pricesis significant for emerging and developingeconomies but generally low for advancedeconomies. Food accounts for a much smallershare of consumer spending in the advanced
economies.
Global policy makers remain focused onEurope and central banks typically lookthrough supply-driven price spikes whenthinking about policy settings. But theimportance of food in the CPIs of many of theeconomies affected may limit the ability to usemonetary stimulus if it were required.
Spikes in food prices can spill over beyond thebroad economics into other areas as well.There are indications, for example, that periodsof rapid food` price rises are often followed by
periods of above-average civil conflict.
A recent IMF study also concluded that, onaverage, a one standard deviation lift in thefood price index increases the number of
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Food price inflationis often followed byperiods of above-
average civil conflict.
Significant globalfood price inflationremains a risk ratherthan reality at thisstage.
Emergingeconomies are mostat risk.
Food accounts for asmaller share ofeconomic activity inthe advancedeconomies.
Higher food pricesmay limit the abilityto use monetarystimulus if required.
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Global Markets Research
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