issues, the economy and character in campaigns march 23, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns
March 23, 2011
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Announcements
No class next week; instead we will meet before the final exam (in May) for a review session.
Final exam scheduled 20 May
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How predictable are elections?
Economic conditions
Government popularity
Past performance
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Forecasting British Elections
Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7: 191-198
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The Forecast
Actual result: Labour 35%
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Another Forecast of the 2005 British Election
Source: Whiteley (2005) “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections”BJPIR 7:165-173.
Actual result: Labour 356 Seats; Conservatives 198 Seats; Liberal Democrats 52 seats
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US Elections
Abramowitz (2008) “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-ChangeModel” PS: Political Science & Politics 41(4): 691-695
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The 2008 Election
Actual result: Obama 53%
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If elections are predictable why is opinion fluid...
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British Voting intentions (2005-10)
See www.ukpollingreport.co.uk
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Enlightenment Theory
Campaigns “educate” voters
Campaigns activate “fundamentals” such as performance evaluations, group characteristics, party cues...
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Example of Activation
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For issues to matter in an election
Candidates/parties must differ
Prospective voters must perceive the differences
They must be correct about the difference
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On the other hand...
There are incentives for candidates to obfuscate
Prospective voters are often ignorant of where candidates/parties stand
Individuals’ views on different issues may not point to the same preference
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Issue Ownership
Parties build up reputations in particular policy areas
Parties come to “own” these issues
Try to make elections about the issues they “own”
“Old” vs. “New?” issues
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Issue Space
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Issue Voting in Britain
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When are issues likely to be more/less important?
When parties are far apart
If parties/candidates successfully “cross-pressure” voters
When candidates talk about them
When media focus on them
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The Economy
Retrospective or prospective?
Egocentric or sociotropic?
Is it affected by institutional clarity of responsibility?
Is a good economy as influential as a bad economy?
Does political knowledge affect the relationship?
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When is the economy likely to be more/less important?
When parties are far apart
When responsibility is clear
When times are tough
When candidates talk about it
When media focus on it
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Valence Issues
Issues that are uniformly liked or disliked as opposed to a position issue on which opinion is divided.
Valence issues are less demanding
Corruption, competence, honesty, integrity
Assessments about leadership performance
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Character
Competence
Integrity
Leadership
Empathy
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Brown’s Public Image
Survey End Date
Belief StrongDecisiv
eCrisis Honest
In touch
Leader
Charisma
YouGov/Sunday Times
15/06/07
49 44 38 16 23 17 13 4
YouGov/Sunday Times
20/07/07
44 35 32 16 25 20 11 4
YouGov/Sunday Times
06/10/07
40 40 37 27 22 20 17 1
YouGov/Sunday Times
16/05/08
30 17 8 10 22 10 3 2
YouGov: Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Sticks to what he believes in, Strong, Decisive, Good in a a crisis, Honest, In touch with the concerns of ordinary people, A natural leader, Charismatic, None of these, Don’t know
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Character
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Perception of Gore’s Honesty
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Traits of Candidates
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British Elections: Valence Politics
Leadership evaluations
Party identification Perceptions of competence
Economy
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Summing it Up: What matters?
The economy
The issues
Character