Stronger Europe? – The Future of European Integration in Light of the New Dynamics of a

Changing Global ArenaIstván Tarrósy, Ph.D., assistant professorUniversity of Pécs, Faculty of Humanities

8. DRC Summer School, Vienna, 7 July 2011

Our ever so globalising, transnational world

• Interwoven with all sorts of interconnected and interdependent relations of all sorts of actors.

• Formerly inter-state international relations based on a state-centric approach are replaced by transnational interactions of different players.

• Attention is shifting to transnational and transgovernmental societies which take the form of boundary-crossing networks amongst individuals and NGOs.

John Burton’s cobweb (1972)

• A ‘world society’ with sub-national and supranational levels of interactions.

States remain important actors, but!• IR are not limited at all to governments – state-level

entities! • Each government interacts with a diverse range of

non-state actors.• Peter Willetts (2001): ”Better understanding of

political change is obtained by analysing the relations between governments and many other actors from each country.”

• New types of powers and powerholders are present

An example: The rise of China and India on African soil

• Not at all a new phenomenon• Historic ties between China, India and Africa• Coupled with constant migration from Asia to Africa• Trade – but not just trade!• ”Africa’s exports to China increased at an annual rate of 48%

between 2000 and 2005, two and half times as fast as the rate of the region’s exports to the US and four times as fast as the rate to the EU over the same period” (Broadman 2008: 95)

The importance of the Silk Road

Indian migration to Africa

Source: Chaliand, Gérard – Jan, Michel – Rageau, Jean-Pierre (1994): Paris: Éditions du Seuil. p. 66

Chinese routes to Africa

Source: http://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/marcuse/classes/2c/lectures/06L11ChinaJapan.htm

Alternative ways of development• Complex transformations are fore/seen in

the 21st century• A multipolar global order with emerging

powers of the Global South and their different models of successful development e.g. BRICS countries

• We can witness the retreat of the Washington Consensus + ”its rather poor record in Africa” (Cheru–Obi 2010: 1)

• Beijing Consensus (Ramo 2004), ‘Southern Consensus’ non-prescriptive, no uniform solutions, pragmatic the ‘new physics of power and development’

The Chinese Way?

Africa’s century finally?• NEW self-definition, self-determination, self-reliance

Mbeki: Africa define yourself!• Strategic thinking – alternative ways and choice• Regional co-operation• Continent-wide integration (?) African Union• Inter-regional ties• The new triangle of development: Africa – Persian-gulf – Asia

+ what this holds for the entire future global system

And Europe? Is this Europe’s century?• With the latest economic and financial crisis European citizens also experienced

how vulnerable they and their societis are.• A number of topical issues for the present and future of Europe include:

- to find an exit from the economic crisis- to figh unemployment in an appropriate and efficient way- to strengthen cultural diversity and regionalism- to develop a forward-looking and comprehensive European immigration and asylum policy- to address energy security, illegal migration, the fate of the multicultural social model, … the competitiveness of the EU on a global scale…

…SO, HOW STRONG IS EUROPE – FROM WITHIN AND FROM A MORE EXTERNAL PERSPECTIVE?

Some of the crucial topics to get strong(er)• EDUCATION 4,000 institutions – over 17 M students – 1.5 M staff ”Although Europe remains one of the best places in the world where to study

and do research, new trends in the labour market change the demands on university graduates.” (de Quirós, 2011: 14)

• MIGRATION 200 M immigrants in the world today (40-50 M illegal), 62 M refugees

(estimated)Causes:1. Political factors: elite changes, the old elite needed to flee2. Social factors: ethnic, religious conflicts, hampered civic liberties3. Economic factors: better living conditions, higher standard of living (immigration within countries, e.g. in China, the U.S.)4. Environmental/ecological factors: ecological scarcity (water, land, desertification), floods, climate change as such

HungaryLegal migrants compared with total population: c. 2%

(approx. 197,819 legal + above this 25% illegal) – in 2010, according to the Central Statistical Agency, more than half living in Budapest and the Central Hungarian region.

Constant increase: in 2001 only c. 110,000Legal migrants: from the EU: c. 60% (two thirds are Romanian/Slovakian Hungarians),

outside the EU: c. 40% (c. 70,000 – 80,000 persons) The majority of non-EU: Hungarians in Croatia, Ukraine, SerbiaAfricans in Hungary in 2010: 2,513 persons

What aims/objectives for migrating to Hungary?• Finding a job• Family reunification• Studies• Others Employed mainly in the sectors of: building industry, metal industry, machine industry

(engineers), health care, trade, hospitality, education, NGOs

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150000

200000

250000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Foreigners in Hungary (persons)Statistics 1.

Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH)

Statistics 2.

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1500

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Africans in Hungary (persons)

Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH)

Statistics 3.

Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH)

Africans in Hungary by regions (persons)

General characteristics• From 49 African countries; most of them from Nigeria, Egypt, Libya, Camerun,

Algeria. The rest of the countries represented by 4-5. • Only one quarter is female, but the number of children is the highest among them. • Africans in Budapest are active, have a lively ‘big’ community, with cultural, music,

etc. Events.• Most members of the older generations got their degrees in Hungary and stayed

in the country as doctors, engineers (state scholarships of between 1960’s – 1980’s) – the younger ones were more entrepreneurial in their approach.

• After the regime change it has been more difficult for Africans to come to Hungary (no scholarships, no jobs, racism, xenophobia [in the EU: HU considered as one of the most xenophobic countries])

• At present: the most active migrant NGOs are the Africans! (from HR to sports, culture). Unique African sub-culture in Budapest with one common ‘platform’ for African migrants (no real domination of any of the African nations/ethnic groups!)

Regional co-operation, the future of EU Enlargement

• Continuous enlargement• But: more careful steps institutions, capacities, competencies, national

and supranational developments• ”It is highly probable that in the coming decades a European Union with

about 35-38 members may be emerging…” (Palánkai, 2011: 63).• Eastern enlargement new type of quality!• Process of deepening• Internal cohesion• External convergence• Macro-regional co-operations

Thank you for your attention!