it between magic and fashion
TRANSCRIPT
IT - Between Magic and FashionA Personal Perspective
Heinz Roggenkemper
AtelierSAP Conference – Orlando - May 12, 2013
The Magic
SDXC
Deep Blue/Kasparov
The power of community and Open Source
Examples: Reddit, Kaggle
Watson/Jeopardy
The Magic
SDXC
Deep Blue
The power of community and Open Source
Examples: Reddit, Kaggle
Watson
A two-year old with an iPad
What Do We Find in Magic?
The power of roadmaps
The capability to thoroughly master domains
Community involvement
Creating an accessible common layer on top of many domains
Reaching everyone
Fashion
The paperless office
Virtual reality
MOOC, 3D Printing, cashless society
Sandy Hook Promise Innovation Initiative
‘A new group of Bay Area technology investors plans to back startup companies developing ‘smart gun’
Technologies that change everything (a list of 2005)
AJAX, biogenerics, deep web search, HD Audio, hybrid cell phones, micro fuel cells,WiMax
What Do We Find in Fashion?
Information technology will transform everything.
The believe that something that is possible is inevitable.
Everything needs information technology.
‘…given enough apps, all of humanities bugs are shallow’ (Evgeny Morozov)
Moore’s Curse
First mover’s advantage
IT has mastered innovation
What About Innovation?
First thought experiments
Let us go back 200 years, put a leading scientist/engineer 100 year into the future, and expose him/her to the current knowledge
James Watt
Mathematics (real foundation), physics (Maxwell, quantum theory, relativity theory), biology (genetics), medicine (understanding of diseases, pharmaceuticals),energy (coal, oil, electricity),materials (alloys), chemical industry, transportation (railways, mass transit, cars, air planes), communication (telegraph, telephone, radio), photography, phonograph, movies
Overwhelmed!
Repeat for 100 years
Thomas Alva Edison
Substantial progress everywhere, but not many real breakthroughs (antibiotics, human genome, nuclear energy, computers, Internet, wireless)
Impressed, but not overwhelmed
Second thought experiment
Let us go back 100 years, and compare the change that a representative of a median income family would experience in the next 50 years
electrical appliances (washing machine, refrigerator), in-door plumbing, central heating, cars, telephone, radio, TV, record players, compact Cassette (1963, that is a close one)
Overwhelmed!
Repeat for 50 years
Everything is better, many things are digital, but not much is new (microwave, PCs, printers, cell phones, Internet access everywhere)
Impressive, but not overwhelming
How Important Is IT?
Impact on overall economy
Median incomes over the last 20 years
You can see computers everywhere except in productivity numbers
China
Property rights, enforceable contracts
Technologies played a major role, and IT played a minor role
Finance
High-speed trading as an example for an arms race without social value
What Else Matters?
Principle of diminishing returns
Unintended consequences
Quite often, the opposite of something true is also true.
Power
The Big Challenges
Energy/Climate Change
2050: carbon-free KWh at 50% of today’s cost (Bill Gates)
Education
‘...I’ve had to come to the inevitable conclusion that the problem is not one that technology can hope to solve. What’s wrong with education cannot be fixed with technology. No amount of technology will make a dent.
It’s a political problem. The problems are sociopolitical.’
Steve Jobs
The Big Challenges
Energy/Climate Change
2050: carbon-free KWh at 50% of today’s cost (Bill Gates)
Education
Healthcare
Nurses will be more important than technology
Investment over consumption
Science
A New Hope - Augmentation
Freestyle Chess (2005)
Anyone could compete in teams with others or computers
The result: ‘Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.’ (Gary Kasparov in ‘The Chess Master and the Computer’)
A New Hope
Augmentation
Collaboration and new value chains
Quirky
New AI
New platforms
A deeper understanding of human behavior that includes evidence from cognitive psychology, evolutionary biology, and neurology.
The Empire Strikes Back
The end of Moore’s law (around 2020)
Software becomes/is more important than hardware
Intellectual property
Last year, for the first time, spending by Apple and Google on patent lawsuits and unusually big-dollar patent purchases exceeded spending on research and development of new products, according to public filings. (NY Times, Oct 7, 2012)
Judge Posner’s ruling in an Apple/Motorola case (focusing on damage calculations) is encouraging, but is likely to be appealed and overturned.
ReferencesTyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation, 2011
Richard Farson, Management of the Absurd, 1997
Andy Haldane, Financial Arms Races, 2012
Gary Kasparov, The Chess Master and the Computer, 2010
Daniel L. McFadden, The New Science of Pleasure, NBER Working Paper, Feb. 2013
Evgeny Morozov, To Save Everything, Click Here, 2013
Vaclav Smil, Creating the 20th Century, 2005