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IT COMES TO THE ENERGY!

The 2000-watt society vision in Switzerland.  

Dr. Marco Morosini, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich

12.3.2014, London, NETGREEN

Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic

Antarctic Peninsula

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http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

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”The scenario of a “2000-watt society” serves as a conception, guiding energy and climate protection policy.

In the long term, this would require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) to the sustainable level of one tonne per capita, with per-capita energy consumption of 500 watts being derived from fossil fuels and 1500 watts from renewable sources.”

Swiss GovernmentSustainable Development Strategy 2002 (and 2008 and 2012)

www.deza.admin.ch/ressources/resource_en_23811.pdf

2002: The Swiss government adopts the 2000-watt normative scenario

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2002, 2004:Finalreports

Jochen et al., 2002

Jochen et al., 2004

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2010

Bretschger L. et al. 2010

“A 2000 watt society is compatible with a further growth of GDP in Switzerland”

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Josè GoldembergUNDP World Energy Assessment

1985

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1994, Switzerland

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1998: The ETH-domain starts the research programme:

“2000 watt society – Switzerland” Institutions of the ETH-domain:

ETH-Rat (1998) 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz. Strategie Nachhaltigkeit im ETH-Bereich, Wirtschaftsplattform, ETH Zürich

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2000: The foundation Novatlantis is created to foster progress towards a 2000-watt society

www.novatlantis.ch/

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2009: New Monterosa Hut: 100% renewable energies at 2883 m asl

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Swiss Alpine Club

www.neuemonterosahuette.ch www.section-monte-rosa.ch/cabanes_4.htm

- 130 beds

- hot shower for 130

- photovoltaic and thermosolar panels

-emergency backup generator (agrodiesel)

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Since 1986: 100% renewable energy at 2126 m asl.

Markus Menn, Postman and Postbus driver in Juf, Avers Valley, Grison, CH

- chalet of 4 apartments

- heat pump (4 ground probes, 80 m)

- thermosolar panels

- hydropower from nearby plant

http://jufferien.ch/

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Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf

2007

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Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf

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If alone, efficiency is not the solution.

It is the problem

http://www.novatlantis.ch/

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2005

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2000: Energy use distribution among countries and within countries (average + upper decile + lowest decile)

Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911

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60 TW ?12 TW

6000 watt x 10 billion

World use of primary energy*:Year 2000 to 2050-2100Unsustainable transition?

2000 watt x 6 billion

* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

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2000 2050

World use of primary energy*:Sustainable transition?

IC

LIC

IC: Industrialized countries LIC: Less Industrialized Countries

18 TW12 TW2000 watt x 6 billion 2000 watt x 9 billion

* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

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Thank you !

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Additional slides (upon request)

Use of power or of primary energy*- in the year 2000 (Switzerland)- and in 2050, in the scenario „2000-watt society“

Unit per capita Year 2000 Year 2050

watt

(continuous flux.

1 W = 1 J /sec)

6000 2000

tons oil equivalent (toe)

x year

4.5 1.5

gigajoule (GJ)

x year

190 60

kilowatt hour (kW.h)

x year

53 000 18 000

* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

Definition of the normative scenario“2000-watt society”

In a „2000-watt society“ all energy services together require a continuous flux of primary energy of no more than 2000 watt per capita (or: TPES* of 60 GJ /year per capita)

Present requirement in Europe: 6000 watt per capita

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society

* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

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Outline

1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”

1. Examples in Switzerland

2. Objections and obstacles

1. Summary and conclusions

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Why 2000 watt per capita?

1) "Biophysical“ argument:2000 watt pc would be a precautionary limit

to avoid excessive perturbation to biodiversity and to biosphere (Wolfram Ziegler, 1977; Hans-Peter Dürr 1993)

2) Status quo argument:2300 watt pc is the average flux of primary energy in the world now

3) Quality of life indicators show poor correlation with growing energy use beyond 2000 watt pc (Vaclav Smil 2003)

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-Swiss government, (Sustainable development strategy 2002, 2008, 2012)

-Zurich population: in a town referendum 78% of the voting population of Zurich decide to write in the town constitution the commitment to a “2000-watt society”

-Some cantons and towns, in their energy strategies

-All major national scientific institutions: ETH, EPFL, EMPA, WSL, PSI

-Society of engineers and architects (SIA), with guidelines for “2000-watt society buildings”

-Zurich, Basel, Geneva: Pilot towns for a “2000-watt society”

2000-2010: The vision of a 2000-watt society

spreads in Switzerland and is adopted by:

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http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

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http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

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http://www.aue.bs.ch/fachbereiche/fachuebergreifendes/nachhaltige-entwicklung/pilotregion.htm

Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011 33

The new headquarter (1998) of the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics, Neuchatel

Demand of primary energy: 10 % of a conventional building.

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EAWAG e EMPA Federal Institutes for research on water and on materials Zurich, 2007

1998 and 2007: Federal buildings with energy demand of only 10% of a conventional building

Federal Office of Statistics, Neuchatel, 1998

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2010:

- MINERGIE: 19 000 certified buildings (20 million m2)

-MINERGIE-Plus: 630 buildings

-MINERGIE-Plus-ECO: 80 buildings

www.minergie.ch

1998: MINERGIE, the major Swiss registered label for low-energy buildings

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MINERGIE certified: Headquarters of 2 top 10 companies, Zurich

Migros Tower (nr 1 retail) Sunrise Towers (nr 2 phone company)

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2008: “Energy saving is out In its new energy strategy the ETH abandons the 2000-watt society”

Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011 38

Since 2008: Two diverging strategies

1) Government, cantons, towns, institutions, business:“2000-watt society” in 2050. And 1 t CO2 per capita

2) ETH (since 2008):New slogan: “1-t-CO2-society” in 2100-2150. 4000-6000 watt per capita in Switzerland and worldwide

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9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

1. “Reduce damage, not energy!”

“A limit should be put to risks and damages caused by energy technologies, not to the level of energy use per se.

With C-poor technologies, the average use of primary energy can grow at least up to 6000 watt pc for 9 billion humans.”

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2. “Energy limit, nonsense!”

“A world limit of 2000 watt pc could be either:

- too low, if environmental friendly technologies are adopted.

- too high, if environmental unfriendly technologies are still be used and world population soars.”

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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3. “Horizon 2050 too soon!”

“2100 or 2150 more plausible.”

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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4. “More electrification – and energy - necessary!”

“Fossil fuels can be phased out only through massive electrification (e.g. private transport; heating)

Trade-off: more-electricity-for-less-carbon.”

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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5. “Lifestyles, not negotiable!”

“For a 2/3 reduction of energy use, more energy efficiency is not enough. Strong restrictions in lifestyle would be necessary.Unacceptable!”

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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6. Rebound effect outmatches efficiency progress

Higher efficiency lowers the price of energy services,thus boosts the overall use of energy.

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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Two strategies for reducing overall energy use

1) Efficiency:Doing more with less. Reform of technologies

2) Sufficiency*:Doing less. Reform of lifestyles

*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety

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Change priorities !

1) Sufficiency*:Doing less. Reform of lifestyles

2) Efficiency:Doing more with less. Reform of technologies

*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety

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Ecological economist Herman Daly:

“Efficiency-first does not give frugality-second – it makes frugality less necessary.

Frugality-first gives us efficiency-second by making it more necessary.”

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Examples of collective sufficiency:

- building all trains for no more than 200 km/h- building all cars for no more than 120 km/h

www.edizioniambiente.it/eda/catalogo/libri/609/

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7. Impossible to forecast new inventions.

“Invention is the mother of necessity” Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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8. Advertising:

Advertising pressure soars (ca. 1000 billion U$ in 2004)

Desires engineers outperform efficiency engineers.

9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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9. Emulative consumption and growing wealth disparities

The “conspicuous consumption “ of the upper classesstimulates the emulative consumption of the lower classes.

(s. Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929)

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Hervè Kempf (Paris newspaper Le Monde): Restrictions of the material consumption of the upper classes are necessary in order to slow down the growth of the demand by the entire population.

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hervé_Kempfwww.reporterre.fr

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www.robert-h-frank.com/

Prof. Robert Frank, Cornell University, USA:Income taxes to be substituted by progressive consumption taxes.

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2000

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The energy consumption window today (left) and in 2050 (right). The upper, ecological boundary (between 2 and 4 kW/capita) refers to the global average.The lower boundary (600 W/capita) refers to the poorest decile of the global society in 2050.

Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911

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Iceland:16 000 watt per capita average use of primary energy 80 % geothermic

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1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”

1. Examples in Switzerland

2. Objections and obstacles

1. Summary and conclusions

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Summary (1/2)

1. All technological energy transformations cause environmental costs – not only fossil fuels.

No energy technology can expand infinitely. Renewables neither.

2. A voluntary boundary around 2000 watt pc stimulates energy parsimony – including parsimony of fossil fuels.

3. Only a “2000 watt society” in the industrialized countries can:a) legitimate them to ask for moderation in energy use worldwideb) offer to developing countries a possible model for sustainable

energy consumption.

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Summary (2/2)

4. Efficiency (“doing more with less”) is ambivalent:

- it can lower energy use in saturable sectors(es. heating, cooling, production)

- but generally it boosts energy use in the society as a whole and in non saturable sectors (e.g. private transport, consumer goods, leisure travel)

5. Sufficiency (“doing less”) is necessary and accessible through:

- voluntary moderation (stimulated by mass communication)

- incentives, disincentives, prescriptions

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Conclusions

1)For the political community:

“Sufficiency first” should raise to a priority in the political and cultural arena.

2)For the scientific community:

Technologists and economists should be more aware of the limited – or counterproductive - effect of efficiency progress, if this is not accompanied by a “sufficiency first” policy.

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Symposium for Wolfgang SachsBerlin, May 21-22, 2012

„Sufficiency Economy

What is missing on the Rio Agenda…“

Organised by:-Wuppertal Institute -Heinrich Böll Foundation

Programme:http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/Agenda%20Symposium%20für%20Wolfgang%20Sachs-final.pdf

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better

Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011 66

Uso di energia finale pro capite (kWh * anno) in Svizzera1980-2009

Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011 67

Emissioni di gas a effetto serra in Svizzera(Mt CO2 equivalenti) 1990-2009