““It is very difficult to make an It is very difficult to make an accurate prediction, accurate prediction,

especially about the future.”especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr (Physicist)

Main sources of predictions: AI Academics Science Fiction Writers

Often correct… 1945: geostationary satellites as telecommunications relays

““By 2050, our lives will be By 2050, our lives will be populated with all kinds of populated with all kinds of

intelligent robots.”intelligent robots.”

Rodney Brooks (MIT AI lab)

Possibly true… Lives already full of computers and AI Robot technology maturing

BBC interview with Rodney Brooks and Ray Kurzweil

Interviewer:

Will our hyper-intelligent coffee makers Will our hyper-intelligent coffee makers in 2050 suddenly decide to kill us like in 2050 suddenly decide to kill us like

HAL in 2001? HAL in 2001? Or will humans be made redundant by a Or will humans be made redundant by a

legion of intelligent machines?legion of intelligent machines?

Response:

No. We will not wake up one day to find No. We will not wake up one day to find our lives populated with all manner of our lives populated with all manner of

artificially intelligent devices…artificially intelligent devices…

Despite the rapid advance of technology, Despite the rapid advance of technology, the advent of strong AI will be a the advent of strong AI will be a

gradual process.gradual process.

Big Brother Scenario “Big Brother”

a state which will control the whole life of its citizens

Human technical ruling class Credible? Wealth gap in US widens in past 50 years Wealth gap between rich and poor countries increases Internet increases ability of rich to extract wealth from poor

Sources of value can easily be connected (increasing value for them) and disconnected (cutting the out of loop)

Education, technology more important than ever for value creation But extremely unevenly distributed

Big brother scenario: ruling class may control population through AI technology

Big Brother Scenario Privacy Invasions by Biometrics and ICT Implants

used for personal identification everybody can be recognized and identified everywhere Scanned on entry to shops/public places Payment of cash may disappear

Identify dissent – attempts at organised uprising Currently easy to monitor communications – phone and internet But many man hours needed to analyse recordings AI could step in Already does for keywords Data mining could identify “troublemakers” early Analyse what you are reading Social networking sites give yet more sinister opportunities

Autonomous technology is a dangerBy 2020… Today, via loyalty cards shop’s computers predict your purchase and order Soon… routine insurance claims/loans will be assessed entirely using AI Intelligent agents cut out direct human input key activities such as surveillance, security, and tracking No humans need to be involved technology will generate dangers not recognised …until it is impossible to reverse them on a "J" curve of continued acceleration of change

Compiled reactions from the 742 respondents:42% agreed54% disagreed4% did not respond

The 2006 Pew Internet & American Life/Elon University Predictions Survey

The Matrix Scenario AI technology able to replace humans at work Massive unemployment? People gradually spend more and more time in Virtual Worlds Eventually forget about “real” world Example: World of Warcraft has over 9M subscribers

More than the population of many countries June 2005 child died due to neglect by her World of Warcraft-addicted

parents in Korea http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjjvW8v96dc

Rise of the machines?

In the future envisaged by the movies, technology is out to destroy us. But could it really happen?

“The only reason to fear technology is The only reason to fear technology is because it enables people to do bad things because it enables people to do bad things to each other ... to each other ... but that's happened throughout history. but that's happened throughout history. It's just that the means have arguably It's just that the means have arguably become more sophisticated.become more sophisticated.”

Matthew Kirkcaldie

Rise of the machines? (fiction) Skynet is a computer-based defense system Placed in control of all U.S. Military's weaponry Remove possibility of human error Skynet became self-aware (there exist a number of sci-fi stories on a similar theme) Credible?

Rise of the machines - credible? Much AI research is funded by military USS Vincennes – was put down to human error What if it had been computer controlled? As AI improves – tendency to give it more control

Especially in time-critical situations

…machines in control of military hardware seems credible

Machines losing the plot? Humans sometimes do… after millions of years of evolution… Maybe even more likely for machines But machines unexpectedly becoming intelligent/sentient probably

unlikely

Singularity The technological singularity

Hypothesized creation of smarter-than-human entities Machine can keep augmenting their own mental abilities

Seed AI

““The first ultraintelligent machine is the The first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever last invention that man need ever make”make” – Irving Good

Rapidly accelerate technological progress Human beings no longer capable of participating

What does "smarter-than-human" really mean? We don't know because we're not that smart

What happens after the Singularity? Nobody knows our model of the future breaks down

Credible? Some would say ability to predict improves

Transhumanism Defined in 1957 by Aldous Huxley’s brother Julian Huxley

““man remaining man, but transcending man remaining man, but transcending himself, by realizing new possibilities of himself, by realizing new possibilities of

and for his ‘human nature’” and for his ‘human nature’” The use of new sciences and technologies

to enhance human mental and physical abilities and aptitudes

ameliorate undesirable and unnecessary aspects stupidity, suffering, disease, aging and involuntary death.

Technologies Genetic engineering Implants, robotic prostheses Nanotechnology Drugs Possibly uploading personality to a non-biological substrate http://www.newscientist.com/blog/technology/2007/11/militarys-new-exoskeleton.html

Transhumanism already happening…

2006 first bionic arm attached to female amputee Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago Arm controlled by thoughts Signals from nerves from stump of the lost arm

rewired into the recipient’s chest

Transhumanist Opponents The first victim of transhumanism might be equality. The U.S. Declaration of Independence says that

“all men are created equal”

““If we start transforming ourselves into If we start transforming ourselves into something superior, what rights will these something superior, what rights will these

enhanced creatures claim, enhanced creatures claim, and what rights will they possess when and what rights will they possess when

compared to those left behind? compared to those left behind? If some move ahead, can anyone afford If some move ahead, can anyone afford

not to follow? “not to follow? “Francis Fukuyama (Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)

Next Step of Evolution? Evolution hardly stops at human Next step could be by human design rather than random Evolution of humanity into a posthuman life-form

Combining human and artificial parts or Transhumanist genetic engineering Could lead to different races

Those who stay human Those who accept/can afford modification

Alternatively humanity may be replaced by artificial intelligence Will they keep humans as pets? Or in zoos? Or on some reservations?

Next step of evolution

We rely more and more on machine intelligence Lose our ability to survive independently Eventually, world will be dominated by companies

that are controlled entirely by artificial intelligence.

Anyone wishing to switch off the machines would effectively be committing suicide

Source: Independent Newspapers UK Limited

Rights for Robots

Robots could one day demand the same citizen's rights as humans, According to a study by the UK Office of

Science and Innovation's “Horizon Scanning Centre”.

Rights for Robots Robots develop to the point where they can

Behave intelligently Reproduce Improve themselves Understand emotion, empathise, feel emotion

Robots would have certain responsibilities Care for humans (e.g. elderly) Compulsory military service Contribute to economy, pay taxes

Society should give rights to new citizens Human rights such as not to be killed, tortured or abused Voting, expressing opinion, protesting Participation in political institutions nondiscrimination

Difficult Questions… If robots are truly intelligent is it fair to relegate them to

a life of menial chores? If intelligent robots have rights then

is it fair to create “disabled” robots who have less intelligence, in order to use them for menial chores?

Brave new world? Where is the dividing line between a creature

qualifying for rights and one not qualifying?