item 5.1: summer 2017 operational and market revie€¦ · dave maggio manager, market analysis...
TRANSCRIPT
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Item 5.1: Summer 2017 Operational and
Market Review
Dan Woodfin
Senior Director, System Operations
Dave Maggio
Manager, Market Analysis & Validation
Board of Directors Meeting
ERCOT Public
October 17, 2017
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Summer 2017 Highlights
• System demand peaked in July this year.
– 69,496 MW on July 28 (less than the 2016 peak of 71,110 MW)
– The Aug. peak of 67,873 MW occurred on Aug. 16.
• Pricing
– Relatively low average wholesale electricity prices
• June: $28.71, July: $30.83, and Aug.: $28.50
– Relatively low Fuel Index Price
• June: $3.05/MMBtu, July: $2.97/MMBtu, and Aug.:
$2.86/MMBtu
– Continuation of Intermittent Renewable Resource (IRR) output
during peak demand hours
• Decrease in Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) activity relative
to 2016
2
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Temperature Deviations from Normal
3
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
ERCOT Demand
4
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
6/1
6/2
6/4
6/5
6/7
6/8
6/1
06
/11
6/1
36
/14
6/1
66
/17
6/1
96
/21
6/2
26
/24
6/2
56
/27
6/2
86
/30
7/1
7/3
7/4
7/6
7/8
7/9
7/1
17
/12
7/1
47
/15
7/1
77
/18
7/2
07
/21
7/2
37
/24
7/2
67
/28
7/2
97
/31
8/1
8/3
8/4
8/6
8/7
8/9
8/1
08
/12
8/1
48
/15
8/1
78
/18
8/2
08
/21
8/2
38
/24
8/2
68
/27
8/2
98
/30
Hourly Average Load
2016 2017
2017 2016
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31 8/5 8/10 8/15 8/20 8/25 8/30
MW
Date
2016 Outaged MW 2017 Outaged MW
2017 vs. 2016 Resource Outaged MW
5
HARVEY
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Wind Generation
6
HOURLY AVERAGE WIND MW 2016 2017
July 7,067 5,524
August 4,581 4,445
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Wind Generation
7
2017 peak weekly wind
output at HE17
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Wind Production at Peak Load vs. Installed Capacity
8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2016 2017
Coast
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2016 2017
Panhandle
-
500
1,000
1,500
2016 2017
North
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
2016 2017
South
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
2016 2017
West
Remaining Capacity Wind Output
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Solar Generation
9
DAILY AVERAGE SOLAR MW 2016 2017
July 105 312
August 106 312
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Solar Generation
10
2017 peak weekly
PVGR output at HE17
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Operating Notices
11
6/1
6/3
6/5
6/7
6/9
6/1
1
6/1
3
6/1
5
6/1
7
6/1
9
6/2
1
6/2
3
6/2
5
6/2
7
6/2
9
7/1
7/3
7/5
7/7
7/9
7/1
1
7/1
3
7/1
5
7/1
7
7/1
9
7/2
1
7/2
3
7/2
5
7/2
7
7/2
9
7/3
1
8/2
8/4
8/6
8/8
8/1
0
8/1
2
8/1
4
8/1
6
8/1
8
8/2
0
8/2
2
8/2
4
8/2
6
8/2
8
8/3
0
Advisory due to Physical Capability less than 3000 OCN for Capacity Insufficiency
**No Watches issued due to PRC less than 2500
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
2017 vs. 2016 – HSL of Offline Resources
12
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Closer Look at July 28
13
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
G,
H, an
d I
-M
W
A,
B,
C, D
, E
an
d F
-M
W
Hourly Average Demand, Capacity, and Reserves
A - Outages B - Offline C - Renewable HSLD - Non-renewable HSL E - Load G - PRCH - Wind I - Solar PRC = 2300
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Transmission
• New series compensation in Panhandle and Valley increase
transfer capability
• No issues in Valley
• One Emergency Notice issued on Aug. 25 due to Hurricane
Harvey having an adverse impact on the ERCOT System due
to transmission line outages
14
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Solar Eclipse Aug. 21, 2017
15
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Lo
ad
MW
PV
GR
MW
8/21/2017 8/11/2017 8/16/2017 Day Ahead Forecast Estimated Load
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Summer 2017 Daily Average Prices
• Prices consistent across the summer months
• Higher prices on June 19 driven largely by transmission congestion
• Higher prices on Aug. 9 more directly due to lower reserve levels
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
6/1 6/8 6/15 6/22 6/29 7/6 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31
Da
ily A
ve
rag
e P
ric
e (
$/M
Wh
)
Real-Time On-Line ReservePrice Adder (RTORPA)
System Lambda
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Summer 2017 ORDC Price Adders
17
• Reserves, including off-line reserves, were high and price adders were minimal.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000
RT
OR
PA
$(/
MW
h)
Real-Time On-Line Reserves (MW)
Real-Time Online Reserves and Price Adders for Hours Ending 15 through 18
June - August
ORDC with Low and High Values of Off-Line Reserves
Summer 2017 Actual RTORPA in HE15-18
August 9th
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
RUC Changes
• Market design and system changes which had impact on RUC:
– NPRR 744: Aligned mechanism for RUC pricing run and
settlement treatments, and allowed QSEs to opt out of RUC
settlement after the Adjustment Period
– ERCOT operator displays: Added new displays for load-
weighted shift factors and higher configurations of Online
Combined Cycle Resources
– Shadow price caps: Reduced the shadow price caps on
transmission constraint violations in the RUC optimization
engine from near $1 million/MWh to near $100k/MWh
18
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
RUC-Instructed Resource-Hours
19
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 vs. 2017 RUC Instructions
2016
2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun Jul Aug
RU
C I
ns
tru
cti
on
s (
eff
ec
tive
Re
so
urc
e-h
ou
rs)
Not Opted Out
• Less RUC instructions across all 3
months
– 293 vs. 724 effective
Resource-hours
– Includes RUCs for Hurricane
Harvey
• ~43% of RUCs were opted out of
for RUC settlement in 2017
– Similar behavior in 2016
• Did have RUCs for capacity
– 39 effective Resource-hours
primarily around Aug. 4–6
– ~51% of hours were opted out
of for RUC settlement
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
RUC for Capacity on Aug. 6, 2017
• ERCOT was projecting a
reserve capacity shortage
and issued an OCN at
3:19 a.m.
• 3 Resources were RUC-
instructed during morning
HRUC executions.
• Additional Resource
capacity and an over-
forecasting of load resulted
in more moderate real-time
conditions.
20
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
MW
(H
AS
L-L
oa
d)
MW
(H
SL
, H
AS
L,
Lo
ad
)
Hour Ending
Forecasted Load vs. Projected Online Capacity
HRUC at 7 AM
HASL-Load HSL HASL Load
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Reliability Deployment Price Adder
21
The RTORDPA is an adder to the energy price to mitigate the impact of price taken energy injected by
RUC-instructed Resources.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
8 9 10 12 13 14 21 22 27 28 6 7 17 20 24 25 26 29 4 5 6 15 17 18 26 27
Jun Jul Aug
RT
OR
DP
A (
$/M
Wh
)
Eff
ec
tive
Re
so
urc
e-H
ou
rsRUC Instructions and Real-Time On-Line Reliability
Deployment Price Adders (RTORDPA) by Day
Effective Resource-Hours
Average RTORDPA
Max RTORDPA
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
Questions?
22