itrs2.0 and its system drivers: focus on system trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1m 10m 100m 1g 10g...

41
1 UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514 ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and MTM ITRS Design International Technology Working Group Co-chairs: Andrew B. Kahng, Juan-Antonio Carballo (Special thanks to Wei-Ting Jonas Chan, Siddhartha Nath (UCSD VLSI CAD Lab)) May 14, 2014 The Chaminade, Santa Cruz

Upload: others

Post on 08-Jun-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

1UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers:Focus on System Trends and MTM

ITRS Design International Technology Working GroupCo-chairs: Andrew B. Kahng, Juan-Antonio Carballo(Special thanks to Wei-Ting Jonas Chan, Siddhartha Nath (UCSD VLSI CAD Lab))

May 14, 2014 The Chaminade, Santa Cruz

Page 2: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

2UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

1.Evolution of ITRS System Drivers. MTM / Integration Focus. Why do we need drivers in the ITRS?

2.Systems drive devices: capturing the right trends ? What drivers are really going to matter in next 10+ years?(Answer: Mobile)

3.Focus on Mobile systems: example first steps Since systems determine technology requirements, how do we connect system level to IC level for ITRS drivers, and then roadmap the drivers?

4.Conclusions and looking forward

Agenda

Page 3: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

3UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

MTMroadmap

Consumer Stationary,Portable,Networking Drivers

3

2004

2005

2006

2007

ExploreDesign Metrics

Design Technology Metrics

Revised Design Metrics

Revised Design Technology Metrics

ConsumerPortableDriver

Consumer Stationary, PortableDrivers

Consumer Stationary,Portable,Networking Drivers

Driver Study

2008

Revised Design MetricsDFM Extension

Updated Consumer Stationary,Portable,and Networking Drivers

2009

AdditionalDesign MetricsDFM ExtensionSystem level Extension

Updated Consumer Stationary,Portable architecture,and Networking Drivers

MTMRF+AMS Driver start

2010

2011

UpdatedConsumer SOC and MPU Drivers

Upgraded RF+AMS Section

RF+AMS Driver Continued

UpdatedDrivers(MPU, SoC,…)

Upgraded DFM, SL, Verification Sections

Power Design Technology Roadmap

More Than Moore (MTM)analysis + iNEMI

MTM Extension+ iNEMI+ SW !!

MTM Extension+ iNEMISynch+ SW !!

MTMRF+AMS Driver Start

MTMRoadmap

1. Increasingly quantitative roadmap

System DriversChapter

DesignChapter

2. Increasing maturity of driver set

Design, System Drivers History

3. Increasing More Than Moore content

2012

Upgraded Cost, Low-Power Roadmaps

iNEMIalignment

Upgraded DfTest, Resilience, Memory DT

Market-driven Updates

MPU, SOC Updates

MTMroadma

2013

Updated Cost, Low-Power Roadmaps

iNEMIalignmentMore Than Moore “re-boot”

Major revisions MPU, CP-SOC, A-factorDesign capability gap fill

Page 4: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

4UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

In the 80s and 90s the Semiconductor Industry was constituted by Integrated Device Manufactures (IDM)

• Standard components (e.g. Memory and Microprocessors) were produced by IDM and assembled into systems by OEMs

In the past 10 years the Semiconductor Industry has evolved into a distributed industry

• Design team and manufacturing teams are no longer in a single company

• Custom SoC and SIP are the dominant building blocks of electronic systems

• Design houses and foundries represent the new foundation of the Semiconductor Industry

The 2014/15 ITRS has been restructured to represent the new ecosystem

The New ITRS

Page 5: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

5UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Beyond 2020

Outside System Connectivity Outside System Connectivity

System Integration System Integration

Heterogeneous Integration Heterogeneous Integration

Beyond Moore Beyond CMOS

More than Moore Heterogeneous Components

More Moore More Moore

Manufacturing Manufacturing

Themes ITWGs

Page 6: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

6UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Definitions of 7 Focus TopicsSystem Integration—studies and recommends system architectures to meet the needs of the industry. It prescribes ways of assembling heterogeneous building blocks into coherent systems.Outside System Connectivity—refers to physical and wireless technologies that connect different parts of systems.Heterogeneous Integration—refers to the integration of separately manufactured technologies that in the aggregate provide enhanced functionality.Heterogeneous Components —describes devices that do not necessarily scale according to “Moore's Law,” and provide additional functionalities, such as power generation and management, or sensing and actuating.Beyond CMOS—describes devices, focused on new physical states, which provide functional scaling substantially beyond CMOS, such as spin-based devices, ferromagnetic logic, and atomic switch.More Moore—refers to the continued shrinking of horizontal and vertical physical feature sizes to reduce cost and improve performance.Manufacturing consists of tools and processes necessary to produce items at affordable cost in high volume.

Page 7: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

7UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Systems

ICs

System – Device Domain Space

Chip level System level

Techrequirements

Marketrequirements

System Demandwill drive Device Demand

Page 8: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

8UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Typical System, Board Parameters1. PCB Costs2. Assembly Costs3. Package Costs4. Business Costs5. Cycle Time6. Reliability7. Passive components, RF components8. Display9. Memory10. Components / package11. PCB / substrates / interconnect12. Electrical and test13. Power / environmental / thermal14. Supply chain manufacturing15. Simulation / tools

But where are the Applicationand Product requirements?

Page 9: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

9UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020100m

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

10G

100G

1T

10T

Size

(mm

3 )Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes

Mainframe

Mini Computer

Personal Computer

Workstation

Smartphone

mm‐Scale Computing

1 per Enterprise

1 per Company

1 per Professional

1 per person

Ubiquitous

1 per Family

1 per Engineer

Laptop

Ubiquitous

Acknowledgment: Prof. D. Blaauw, U. Mich

?

Page 10: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

10UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

0

5

10

15

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2007

2007

2008

2012

# of Ports

USB1.1 USB2.0 USB3.0

Learning From History: The PC Wave

[Source] Intel and Wikipedia

• Goal: understand and predict technology, platform “waves”• Starting point: analysis of PC system trajectory• Example: Intel south bridge (ICH, ICH2, …, ICH10, and HM47)

USB peripheral:#ports reverses in 2012

Bandwidth:monotone increase

Storage Capacity:monotone increase

Decrease due to new feature (USB3.0)

0

2

4

6

8

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2007

2007

2008

2012# of storage controllers

IDE SATA RAID

020040060080010001200

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

On‐chip BW (MB/s) LAN (Mb/sec)

… …

Page 11: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

11UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Year Chipset Model

ChipsetConf

L2 CACHE AUDIO AGP PCIe PCI ISA USB1.1 / 

2.0 USB3.0 2nd USB3.0

1997 PIIX4 3‐Chip B N N N I I N N N1998 PIIX4 3‐Chip I N I N I I I N N1999 PIIXE 3‐Chip I N I N I N I N N2001 ICH2 3‐Chip I B I N I N I N N2002 ICH4 3‐Chip I B I N I N I N N2005 ICH6 3‐Chip I B N I I N I N N2006 ICH8R 3‐Chip I B N I I N I N N2007 ICH9R 3‐Chip I B N I I N I N N2009 P55 2‐Chip I B N I I N I B N2011 P67 2‐Chip I B N I B N I B N2013 Z87 2‐Chip I B N I N N I I B

PC System Integration Trends

[Source] Asus motherboard manuals

N Function unavailableB Function by on‐board ICsI Function integrated to chipset

SYSTEM level: PC motherboard over last 15 years• From 1998: L2 cache integrated to CPU (performance)• From 2009: North bridge integrated to CPU (bandwidth)• Bandwidth of system bus scales up: ISA PCI AGP PCIe• From 2011: PCI de-integrated, disappears in latest product• USB interface scaling: (1) degree of integration, (2) bandwidth

North bridge integrated

Cache integrated

PCI de-integrated

USB BW scales up

Page 12: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

12UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514[Source] Asus motherboard manuals

Year Chipset Model

10/100M Ethernet

Gb Ethernet

2nd GbE WiFi IEEE 

1394 IDE SCSI Controller SCSI IO SATA

3G2nd 

SATA 3GSATA 6G

SATA RAID

1997 PIIX4 N N N N N I N N N N N N1998 PIIX4 B N N N N I B B N N N N1999 PIIXE N N N N N I N N N N N N2001 ICH2 N N N N N I N N N N N N2002 ICH4 N B N N B I N N B N N N2005 ICH6 N B N N N N N N I N N N2006 ICH8R N B N B B N N N I N N B2007 ICH9R N B N B B N N N I B N B2009 P55 N B N N B N N N I B B B2011 P67 N B B N N N N N I B B B2013 Z87 N B B N N N N N I B B B

BW of ethernet scales up IDE de-integrated SATA BW scales up

• Bandwidth of ethernet interface scales up• Bandwidth of SATA interface scales up• IDE interface de-integrated from 2005• Integration and de-integration both observed in PC platform• Functional, integration requirements drive design of chipset

N Function unavailableB Function by on‐board ICsI Function integrated to chipset

PC System Integration Trends

Page 13: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

13UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

A&DNetwork Consumer/Mobile

Office/Server

Medical Automotive ConsumerStationary

MPU

PE/DSP

AMS

Memory

Fabrics

Markets

ITRS System Drivers – Need to Focus1. Applications drive technology2. Need system input: mechanical, thermal, electrical, spatial

Page 14: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

14UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Mobile Proliferation• > 100% penetration rates• Complex ecosystem of operators, spectrum allocation 

Page 15: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

15UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Evolution of System Drivers Inventory1. Coming years may see a smaller list of key Drivers2. With fab/tech consolidations, Driver applications consolidate too3. Remaining non‐Driver applications ride the technology curve

System Driver (Market based) Technology Parameters Driven Likely action

High performance (computing) MPU

Frequency, number of cores, memory architecture

Keep

Mobile / consumer MPU

Leakage power efficiency

Keep

Low-power computing MPU “Microserver”

Operating power efficiency Introduce

Networking switch Number of I/Os / total I/O BW Keep?

Various fabrics (eNVM, MEMS, AMS/RF)

Various fabric-specific parameters Keep, expand

Networking MPU Number of cores, I/O BW Keep?

Page 16: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

16UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

WAS: SOC‐CP for mobile phoneArea: 49mm2

IS: SOC‐CP for smartphoneArea: 140mm2

Audio Bluetooth Modem Audio BluetoothMulti‐mode modem

Video Wifi2D graphics

Likely the most influential driver in next 10+ yearsLargest market will drive most technology innovation• Reference application of SOC‐CP is changing

• WAS: feature phones with basic applications• IS: smartphones with rich multimedia/gaming applications  

• GPU now key component in mobile AP• Design challenge of SOC‐CP  high diversity of functions

SOC-CP == The Right Driver ??

Page 17: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

17UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Evolution of More Than Moore

Focus: mobile (SOC‐CP) ($60B growth till 2025)• Concrete, real; most important socket for foreseeable future• Can roadmap “scaling of value” from MTM in this context

First target: inventory of top MTM IPs• Look into historical trajectory of teardowns, BOMs  • Can roadmap year in which discrete components are introduced, 

when they go into silicon

Second target: roadmap of components’ evolution over time• Associated “rules” to define “year of introduction” 

• E.g. 2 products in volume production, like rest of ITRS

Page 18: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

18UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Rise of Flash Content

[Source] Wikipedia; Apple press release library

Page 19: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

19UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Rise of the Application Processor

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

#IC in a smartpho

ne

Year[Source: Google Trend, TechInsights]

Decrease:Highly integrated AP

Increase:Demand for more functions

Google Trend: Qualcomm SnapdragonGoogle Trend: Samsung Exynos

• Before 2007: Smartphones contain growing #ICs from different vendors• After 2007: Smartphones contain multi-function integrated application

processors (APs) ( decreasing #ICs)

Page 20: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

20UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of Application Processor IntegrationTREND: Application processors are integrated with more featuresWAS: Independent Bluetooth (BT), wireless, multimedia and baseband (BB) ASICsIS: All features integrated into single application processor (AP)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Degree of In

tegration

LPDDR3

ARMv8 ISA

LTE

Integrated wireless

Integrated BT

1080p Video

W‐CDMA

ARMv7 ISA

GHz ApplicationprocessorLPDDR2

GPU

[Source: Wikipedia]

Page 21: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

21UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Example Roadmapping Task: Split of AP SOC• Given: An SOC design with blocks such as CPU, GPU, and memory controller (MC); performance requirements; memory interface technology; and multi‐die integration technology.

• Objective:Model the number of inter‐die connections (in future products) so as to predict the number of TSVs/micro‐bumps (and, die area, power, thermal, cost) required.

E.g., interposer vs. stacked ?  (area inflection : ~140‐150mm2)(there is an integration inflection, as well…)

Page 22: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

22UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Teardown – iPhone 5

1. Apple A6 processor2. Touch screen controllers3. LTE modem4. Multimode RF5. Three-axis gyroscope6. WiFi7. 16GB Flash8. Audio amplifier9. Power management IC

Side 1 Side 2

1

3

4

2

7

6

9

5

8

[Source: iFixit]

Page 23: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

23UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Building Blocks of a Smartphone

Subsystem Components Function

AP Application Processor Multimedia, resource management

BB Baseband Communication protocols

MemoryMobile DDR2‐S4 SDRAM Memory ‐ 512 MB

Data storageMLC NAND Flash Memory ‐ 4 GBMemory Controller

RF

RF Power Amplifier Radio signal synthesis / extractionUp/down  frequency converting Radio band management

Power Amplifier ControllerWiFi 802.11n / Bluetooth (BT) / FM RadioGSM / CDMA / W‐CDMA RxD Transceiver + GPSSP10T Antenna SwitchGPS LNA

Sensor

LED Flash DriverImage capturing

5 MP CMOS Image SensorAccelerometer Processor

Position / orientation detectionMEMS SensorAmbient Light / Proximity Sensor Environment sensing

Display / Input deviceCapacitive Touchscreen Controller Touch control

TFT‐LCD Display Driver Display

Power / AnalogPower Management IC (PMIC) Hibernation, power mode managementAudio CODEC / amplifier Audio output

Example: smartphone from major manufacturer, 2013

[Source: TechInsights]

Page 24: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

24UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Smartphone Block Diagram Evolution -- 2002

PA x1RF Switch x1

SAW x3Transceiver x1

VCO x1TCXO x1

BT BB x1BT Transceiver x1

Analog Interface x1BB Processor x1

Image Processor x1

PMIC x1DC-DC x2

Current Gauge x1 LCD Driver x1

4MB SDRAM x116MB NAND Flash x1

4MB NOR Flash x1

VGA Imaging Sensor x1

Power / Analog

Connections RF Sensor

AP / BB + Multimedia

Memory

Display + Input devices

GSM

[Source: TechInsights]

Page 25: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

25UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Smartphone Block Diagram Evolution -- 2007

GSM PA / Switch x3PA Controller x1

SAW Filter x1W-CDMA PA x2

GSM + WCDMA Transceiver x1

BT Radio x2WiFi Radio x1

BT Baseband x1BT + wireless Transceiver x1

WiFi BB/MAC/PM x3FM x1

GPS x1

Analog Interface x1BB Processor x1

Media Processor x1

PMIC x2DC-DC x2

Audio Amplifier x2Audio PMIC x1

LCD Driver x1Video Amplifier x1

16MB DDR2 x164MB SDRAM x1

16MB NOR Flash x1256MB NAND Flash x1

5M Imaging Sensor x1VGA Imaging Sensor x1

Accelerometer x1Flashlight Driver x1

Temperature Sensor x1Motor Driver x1

Power / Analog

Connections RF Sensor

AP / BB + Multimedia

Memory

Display + Input devices

Multimode

Blue: appearingGreen: scaling up

Notes:1. GSM and WCDMA RFs

merged 2. One more media

processor added3. More audio output circuits4. WiFi, FM, and GPS are

provided by > 5 ICs5. Sensor functions are

significantly enhanced6. Memory is scaling up [Source: TechInsights]

Page 26: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

26UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Smartphone Block Diagram Evolution -- 2013

PA x4PA controller x1

GPS LNA x1GSM+CDMA+WCDMA+GPS Transceiver x1

Antenna Switch

BT + WiFi + FM BB x1

App Processor x1PMIC x1

Audio Amplifier x1Power IC x8 LCD Driver x1

Touchscreen Controller x1

512MB DDR2 x14GB NAND Flash x1

Memory Controller x1

5M Imaging Sensor x1VGA Imaging Sensor x1

Accelerometer x1Flashlight Driver x1

Proximity Sensor x1

Power / Analog

Connections RF Sensor

AP / BB + Multimedia

Memory

Display + Input devices

Multimode

Blue: appearingGreen: scaling up

Notes:1. All multimedia features

are on AP2. Audio output circuits

integrated into one IC3. BT, WiFi, and FM

(baseband) integrated into one IC

4. Touch screen introduced5. Memory scaling up

[Source: TechInsights]

Page 27: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

27UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Mixed Technology Nodes Will Merge (*)Subsystem Components Model Technology

AP / BB Applications Processor + Baseband Qualcomm MSM8227 CMOS 28nm

MemoryMobile DDR2‐S4 SDRAM Memory ‐ 512 MB SK Hynix 

H9TKNNN4GDAR DRAM process

MLC NAND Flash Memory ‐ 4 GB Samsung K9ABGD8UOC ??Memory Controller Samsung S4LJ211X01 ??

RF

RF Power Amplifier TQM7M9053 GaAs HBTPower Amplifier Controller TriQuint (??) ??

WiFi 802.11n / Bluetooth / FM Radio Qualcomm WCN3660 ?? (Paid report on Chipworks)

GSM / CDMA / W‐CDMA RxD Transceiver + GPS Qualcomm WTR1605 ??

SP10T Antenna Switch Skyworks 36524 ??GPS LNA Renesas C8236 ??

Sensor

LED Flash Driver AMS AS3646 High voltage process (15V)

5 MP CMOS Image Sensor STM 5955AA CMOS (sensor process)Accelerometer Processor STM V655B ST MEMS processMEMS Sensor STM CSL23A ST MEMS processAmbient Light / Proximity Sensor AMS E2703C ??

Display / Input device

Capacitive Touchscreen Controller Synaptics T1321B ??

TFT‐LCD Display Driver Orise R242 ??

Power / AnalogPower Management Qualcomm PM8038 ?? (Paid report on 

TechInsights)Audio CODEC Qualcomm WCD9304 ??

TBR: In what years will critical merging “inflections” occur ? (2015-2030)

Page 28: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

28UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

[Source: TechInsights]

24

56

368

896

5152 8704

1

10

100

1000

10000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mem

ory Ca

pacity (M

byte) ≈1.67× per year

Capacity scaling≈1.67× / per year

#Memory ICsBaseline configuration remains similar

1 or 2 DRAM1 or 2 NAND flash1 NOR flash

%ICs = Memory ICsVaries due to different system architecture

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

#Mem

ory ICs

#Mem

ory ICs / #ICs (%

)

#Memory ICs / #ICs (%) #Memory ICs

Scaling of Memory Blocks(Implicit: Long-Term Requirements)

Page 29: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

29UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of Memory Bandwidth

[Source: http://electroiq.com/insights‐from‐leading‐edge/2011/09/]

Page 30: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

30UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of pJ / Bit

[Source: http://electroiq.com/insights‐from‐leading‐edge/2013/02/iftle‐134‐semi‐3d‐european‐summit‐is‐the‐wide‐io‐driver‐dead/]

Page 31: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

31UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of Subsystem Functions and Bandwidth

Scaling of #functions• Metric: #functions =

• Memory and AP grow faster than other components

Scaling of #pins (“bandwidth”)• Metric: #pins of ICs in category• 2007-2013: bandwidth for

display has significant jump • 2007-2013: bandwidth for RF

decreases (e.g., more highly integrated RF subsystem)

• Bandwidth of other subsystems remains similar from 2007-2013

Scaling of #functions (content in smartphone)

Scaling of #pins (bandwidth in smartphone)

[Source: TechInsights]

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013#fun

ctions

Year

Wireless BB

Sensor

RF

Power / Analog

Multimedia

Memory

Input device

Display

Connection

AP / BB

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

#pins

Year

Wireless BB

Sensor

RF

Power / Analog

Multimedia

Memory

Input device

Display

Connection

AP / BB

Page 32: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

32UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

#IC

Year

Wireless BB

Sensor

RF

Power / Analog

Multimedia

Memory

Input device

Display

Connection

AP / BB

Scaling of #ICs for Each Subsystem

Scaling of #ICs• 2002-2007: #ICs for each

subsystem increases increasing content requirement integration cannot keep pace

• 2007-2013: #ICs significantly decreases integration pace delivers

required content in fewer ICs

Scaling of #ICs as %Total ICs• 2002-2007: %power/analog flat• 2007-2013: %power/analog drops

significantly highly integrated power/analog

• 2007-2013: %RF increases multi-mode RF

• 2007-2013: %sensors increases sensor-rich functionality

Scaling of #ICs

Scaling of #ICs as %Total #ICs

Higher integration

[Source: TechInsights]0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

#IC (%

)

Year

Wireless BB

Sensor

RF

Power / Analog

Multimedia

Memory

Input device

Display

Connection

AP / BB

Page 33: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

33UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of Display and Imaging

y = 6E‐260e0.3032x

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

#Pixels

Year

≈1.35x per year

y = 1.15x ‐ 2304.5

05

1015202530354045

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

#Mpixelsim

aging sensor

Year

Scaling of imaging sensorAnother metric of

multimedia processing capacity

Scaling of display sizeMetric for system

bandwidth and memory requirement

Also metric for multimedia processing capacity and GPU performance

Near-linear (with one outlier)

[Source: Wikipedia]

Page 34: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

34UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of Sensor, RF and MEMS IC in Smartphones

AccelerometersGyroscopes

MagnetometersPressureHumidity

TemperatureeNose

Galvanic Skin ResponseHeart Rate

Motion Processing (MPU)MemoryWireless CommunicationsDisplaySpeakersMicrophonesCamerapH SensorBlood Pressure

• Roadmapping task = develop mapping functions available technologies    application‐specific performance, size, power requirements   identified gaps  required new device and manufacturing technologies

• (Still need to place future sensor functions onto a timeline)[Source: ITRS MEMS ITWG]

Emerging sensor functions

Page 35: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

35UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Scaling of Sensor, RF and MEMS IC in Smartphones• #Sensor ICs: slow but steady growth

• Recently introduced sensors gyroscope (2010), fingerprint (2013)• #RF ICs: no clear trajectory

• Two trends seem to cancel each other out(–) Technology improvement fewer RF ICs (+) Multi-standards support more RF ICs

[Source: Wikipedia, Chipworks]

0

5

10

15

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

#Sensor #RF ICs

#Sen

sor I

Cs

#RF

ICs

Page 36: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

36UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Sensor Roadmap in Smartphones

[Source: http://www.ecnmag.com/articles/2013/05/evolution‐light‐sensor‐integration]

Page 37: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

37UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Sensor Integration in Smartphones -- 2013

[Source: http://electronicdesign.com/boards/sensor‐fusion‐play‐and‐profit]

Page 38: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

38UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Notional: 4 Scaling Sub-Laws in Smartphone?

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

#Fun

ctions

Year

Digital

≈1.4x per year

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

#Fun

ctions

Year

Memory

Revert scaling!

≈1.4x per year

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

#Fun

ctions

Year

Analog and PMIC

≈1.31x per year  

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

#Fun

ctions

Year

RF

≈1.44x per year   Revert scaling!

Page 39: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

39UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Toward System Driver Integration Roadmaps• One Example = Smartphone

• High-value, high-volume driver for next 10+ years• First step: Analysis of data

• Doable with effort• Same spirit as 2013 A-factor recalibration from Chipworks data• Similar first steps needed for IoT, cloud (“AWS”), …

• Next steps: Looking forward with models• #APs vs. #sensors (gesture recognition, security, …) • Thermal and memory power limits vs. how far a bit can

physically move• Human psychophysical limits (display size/resolution, rate of

scrolling, bandwidth, form factor, …) • Sub-laws of scaling: digital, RF, analog/PMIC, memory, …

• MTM = arena for reconciliation• Q: Package-level (DRAM+AP), chip-level (multimedia + LTE BB), TSV-level (CIS + image proc)

integration: how do these drive SOC evolution, with what inflection points?• Q: What drives analog IPs to merge? What drives digital IPs to merge?

Page 40: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

40UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

Toward System Driver Integration Roadmaps• Important: find the key metrics to roadmap!

• Proportion of memory in overall BOM• #die-to-die wires / $• BW / ($-Watt)

• Important: don’t get stuck on “applications pull”!• Unforeseen new possibilities enabled by technology push

• Important: integration can reverse itself!• 16nm and analog don’t like each other • There will be dis-integration …

(e.g., how to split the ModAP SOC) • … and MTM is all about “how do you re-integrate”

(POP, Si interposer, TSV (COCOS, COWOS), …)• A&P and bump pitch, BW/pin etc. metrics become critical

• Important: A journey of a thousand miles begins …

Page 41: ITRS2.0 and Its System Drivers: Focus on System Trends and …...100 1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M 1G 10G 100G 1T 10T Size (mm 3) Bell’s Law – Spatial and Production Volumes Mainframe

41UCSD VLSI CAD Lab + ITRS Design ITWG. Do not redistribute without permission/attribution. A. B. Kahng, Santa Cruz 140514

THANK YOU !