its berlin, september 7th, 2004 polish telecommunications market overview grzegorz stanisławski...
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ITS Berlin, September 7th, 2004
Polish Telecommunications Market Overview
Grzegorz Stanisławski
Department of
Business Development and Strategic Analyses
2
POLAND
PortugalPopulation: 10,4 MHH: 3,5 M
SpainPopulation: 40,7 MHH: 13,7 M
FrancePopulation: 59,6 MHH: 24,7 M
UKPopulation: 59,3 MHH: 26,2 M
IrelandPopulation: 4,0 MHH: 1,3 M
B, DK, NL, LPopulation: 32,4 MHH: 14 M
AustriaPopulation: 8 MHH: 3,5 M
ItalyPopulation: 57,3 MHH: 22,2 M Greece
Population: 11 MHH: 4 M
MaltaPopulation: 0,4 MHH: n.a.
FinlandPopulation: 5,2 MHH: 2,4 M
SwedenPopulation: 8,9 MHH: 4,4 M
GermanyPopulation: 82,5 MHH: 38,2 M
EstoniaPopulation: 1,4 MHH: 0,6 M
LatviaPopulation: 2,3 MHH: 0,9 M
LithuaniaPopulation: 1,4 MHH: 3,5 M
Poland
SloveniaPopulation: 2 MHH: 0,7 M
Demographic data
€ 4 824GDP 2003 per capita
€ 184 bnGDP 2003
38 230 thPopulation 2003
312 th. km2Area
Households 2003 11 800 th
GDP growth and CPI (%)
5,70%3,80%
4,06%
1,00% 1,40%
5,48%3,70%
0,83%1,94%
10,09%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004F
GDP growth (real, % YoY) CPI (% YoY, pavg)
3
Poland is the only country in Central Europe with fixed penetration still growing.
In Czech Republic and Hungary decrease in number of fixed lines can be observed since 2001
Polish mobile penetration is growing much slower than in other European countries.
We expect it will be 58% in 12/2004and ca. 70% in 12/2005.
Mobile penetration 2000 - 2004
17,7
%
26,2
%
36,4
%
45,5
%
51,2
%
31,0
%
48,3
%
67,6
%
78,5
%
81,2
%
42,1
%
66,9
%
83,6
%
94,7
%
98,3
%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 H1
Poland Hungary Czech Rep.
Fixed line penetration 2000 - 2004
28,8
%
30,0
%
31,1
%
32,1
%
32,9
%
37,4
%
36,6
%
36,0
%
35,6
%
35,6
%
37,4
%
37,3
%
35,7
%
35,2
%
34,3
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 H1
Poland Hungary Czech Rep.
Penetration of Fixed and Mobile Services
4
GAP
Penetration of Households with PC and Interet (2003)
69
%
68
%
64
%
63
%
58
%
55
%
54
%
50
%
43
%
41
%
38
%
36
%
49
%
36
%
65
%
60
%
50
%
57
%
50
%
47
%
48
%
42
%
36
%
34
%
28
%
32
%
28
%
42
%
18
%
35
%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sw
eden
Den
mar
k
Bel
gium
Net
herla
nd
Sw
itzer
land
Fin
land
Ger
man
y
UK
Ital
y
Fra
nce
Spa
in
Gre
ece
Por
tuga
l
Wes
t E
urop
e
Pol
and
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PC penetration On line Households with PC that are on-line
Penetration of Internet
In Poland we observe significantly lower Internet penetration among households
that are PC equipped.
5
CAGR
2003 - 2010
9 %
23 %
11 %
- 3 %
Forecast of end customer expenditure on telecommunication services
Evolution of Demand for Telco Services
26,5
38,4
CAGR +5%
12,3 11,7 11,0 10,5 10,3 10,1 9,9 9,9
11,3 13,3 15,016,6
18,0 18,720,0
1,83,7
1,1 4,8
19,3
0
10
20
30
40
2003 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
bn
PL
N
Mobile
Internet
DataTransmission
Fixed Voice
6
AFFORDABILITY
Dustribution of disposable income of Polish households
02
00
04
00
06
00
08
00
0
95%85%75%65%55%45%35%25%15%5%
% of Popultaion
Th
. Eu
ro p
er
ye
ar
Only 10% of household can spend 50 Euro per month
as 10% of their budget
Only 30% of household can spend 20 Euro per month
as 7% of their budget
Global demand of telecommunication services in Poland is strongly restricted by affordability of households.
7
Example: ADSL roll-out
Increase of penetration of ADSL is driven by strong price decrease.The vast majority of customers chose the cheapest available option.
Number of TP's ADSL customers (th. lines)
2136
66
134164
270
380
500
1Q'03 2Q'03 3Q'03 4Q'03 1Q'04 2Q'04 3Q'04F 4Q'04F
35 Euro 22 Euro35 Euro
+free trail13 Euro
Minimal
price
- 60%
TP’s ADSL stands for 67% of total broadband
(xDSL + CATV + FWA)
8
2001.07.01
2003.01.01
2004.01.01
Full liberalisation of DLD markets
Full liberalisation of ILD market
Cost orientation of tariffs
Access to infrastructure - last mileFree market of telecommunicationservices
Competition in each segment
Monopoly
2002
Market Liberalisation
20042001 2003
9
Key Regulatory Issues
Current regulatory regime: Current
DLD, ILD and F2M market open for competition (pre-selection) Cost-orientation for universal services (Jan 1, 2004) Cost orientation concerning interconnect rates, infrastructure sharing
and leased lines Oct 1, 2003 - Amendments of the Telecommunication Law,
adapting it to the EU legislation of 1998
Sep 2, 2004, New Telecommunication Law, adopting 2002 EU legislation
Bitstream access Found for covering costs of universal service
10
TP Position in Fixed Line Market
TP90,7%
Others1,5%
TeleNet1,0%
Dialog3,4%
Netia3,4%
* Mass and business segment
Other0,3%
Netia4,0%
NOM3,0%
Energis4,0%
Tele26,0%
TP82,7%
other0,9%
Netia1,5%
NOM2,0%
Energis3,5%
Tele210,0%
TP82,1%
International Long Distance market share* (traffic)
Fixed to Mobile market share* (traffic)
Local Loop market share (main lines)
Domestic Long Distance market share* (traffic)
other0,2%
Netia2,2%
NOM1,1%
Energis1,5%
Tele25,5%
TP89,5%
Source: TP estimates as of 2004 H1
11
Main issues for telco industry
Stimulation investments in the infrastructure
PSTN in rural area xDSL to extend the coverage
(form 70% to at least 95% of lines) UMTS
Increase penetration of Internet access
Program for schools 50% of households with PC do not use Internet
New business areas
Entertainment E-commerce
Stable condition for investments
Support by universal service found
Public support(i.e. some tax deduction)
Public services(e-government, e-health..)
Regulation of media (IPR, DRM)
Security
12
Dziękujemy
Thank You!