ITS in the Year 2020

Pete Briglia

Mark Hallenbeck

Washington State Transportation Center

(TRAC-UW)

The Public Side of ITS

• Public sector sees ITS as a technical mechanism for improving– Congestion– Safety– Revenue collection– Traveler information (more satisfied travelers /

better travel decisions)– State and regional business climate

The Public Side of ITS

• Public sector is supportive of ITS deployment

HOWEVER

• Lack of financial support is expected to limit public sector ITS deployment

Public Funding Constraints

• Current revenue streams are insufficient to pay for;

– Required infrastructure maintenance

– Required infrastructure reconstruction

– Optimal roadway management

– Desired roadway expansion

Public Funding Constraints

• The general priorities of roadway agencies through 2020 and beyond will be:– Infrastructure (pavement, bridge) repair, – Reconstruction, and – Expansion

• Not ITS deploymentand operation

Public Sector ITS Deployment

• ITS will continue to be deployed

• Deployment will be made strategically, not universally

Public ITS Deployment

• The major ITS deployment will be revenue collection systems– Declining gas tax revenue means new revenue

sources will be implemented

• Unclear which technique will predominate by 2020– DSRC beacon based (major facilities only)– GPS + communications (e.g., VMT tolling)

DSRC Based Tolling

• Assumes fuel taxes remain– Most likely outcome - even by 2020– Associated with large, high volume roads

• Appropriate for paying for major projects of “limited” geographic scope– Limited access highways– Toll rings in urban areas

DSRC Based Tolling

• Integrating DSRC tolling into the vehicle itself has significant benefits

– Makes revenue collection easier / cheaper– Single bill for vehicle owner– Built in stolen vehicle/ID recognition– Can facilitate other services

GPS Based Tolling

• Alternative if fuel taxes are replaced– Less likely outcome by 2020– More privacy concerns / public resistance– Political inertia– Communications are an issue

• Cost of communications

• Technical choice of communications

• Geographic availability of communications and frequency of that communication

GPS Based Tolling

• Significant financial services opportunity – Privacy concerns best alleviated by using

private sector “trusted” service provider

– Multiple services possible– High potential revenue– High level of interaction with customers– But - potential for adverse customer reaction

GPS Based Tolling

• Bundling tolling with other services makes sense:– Toll collection / distribution– Fee for use insurance– Automatic crash notification– Concierge services – Maintenance alerts – Theft tracking – Door lock and unlock services, and – Interlock activation

Public Sector ITS DeploymentNon-Revenue Collection

• Will be performed in high priority areas

• Major urban areas

• Economically significant locations– High value/volume recreational locations– Commercial vehicle movement

Public Sector ITS Deployment

• High priority deployments – Congestion relief, capacity expansion

(operations management)– Safety – Traveler information– Severe storm management

• Snow (northern tier states)

• Hurricane evacuation planning (southern and eastern states)

Congestion Relief

• Strong public sector interest

• Active traffic management– Congestion pricing– HOT and other managed

lanes– Better traffic control

systems

Congestion Relief

• More difficult to sell politically than new capacity, because outcome is less visible– Tough to show that modest congestion from

today would have been 4-hour back up without ITS

• Need better roadway performance data to achieve operational improvements

Congestion Relief

• Willingness to consider automated vehicle controls– Likely implemented in limited right-of-way, special corridors

• Bus transit ways

• Freight (truck) only roads

– Could be expanded

• If implementation problems were solved

Congestion Relief

• Slow implementation of any major improvements

– Public sector infrastructure is slow to change (Transit Signal Priority project funded in 1991 still being tested - Snohomish, WA)

– Lack of funding

– Need to make new systems compatible with existing roadways

Safety• Very high public profile• Major emphasis (“Target Zero”) to eliminate

highway deaths– Still 40,000+ deaths each year

• Belief that benefits from most roadside engineering solutions have been exhausted

Safety: Despite High Profile

• Limited funding allocated to safety

• Safety often loses out to mobility– e.g., willing to remove shoulders to increase

capacity

• By 2020 - ITS roadside support implemented only in high profile, spot locations

Safety

• Roadside ITS safety features will NOT be ubiquitous in 2020

• Public sector will encourage in-vehicle safety improvements– Diagnostics– Driver assistance

• Curve, collision, & lane departure warning systems,

• Stability control, night vision

– Collision avoidance systems

Safety - Automated Enforcement• Significant potential improvements

– Speed enforcement

– Red light running

– Ignition interlocks

– Hours of service monitoring (commercial trucks)

• Issue: Public acceptance?

Public Acceptance?

• No blanket acceptance of automated enforcement

Yet

• History of red-light and speed enforcement cameras shows growing acceptance

Public Acceptance?

• Automated enforcement sold on a case-by-case basis

• Will require; – Obvious public benefits– Limited inconvenience to the public– Appearance of “fairness” to population– Checks and balances, right of appeal

• Expect gradual phase-in to and beyond 2020

Public Acceptance

• Expect widespread automated enforcement in 2020– But NOT ubiquitous – Including interlocks (impairment testing - for

some)– Unlikely to be mandatory

• Public will see the system as – Civil supplement to “criminal” enforcement– Control of previously demonstrated bad

behavior

Traveler Information

• Traveler information has– Strong public support– Strong public interest– Revenue potential (mostly advertising based -

and not much revenue for the public sector)

• Roadway performance data required for traveler information also required for active traffic management

Traveler Information

• Vehicle based information has great potential to– Reduce the cost of roadway performance data

collection– Improve the types of data collected

• (wet conditions, temperature, road friction, vehicle speed)

• Funding to make this happen is unclear

Severe Storm Management

• Systems currently in testing will be fully deployed by 2020

– Evacuation routing– Snow plow call out– Snow plow routing

Motorist Priorities

• Similar, but different from Public Sector

• Safety

• Travel convenience

• Counteracting the effects of aging

Motorist Priority - Safety

• Safety is not the #1 vehicle purchase criteria– Functionality of vehicle, price, performance,

etc., are – But it is important

Safety

• Larger vehicles traditionally perform better in vehicle crashes

• But other factors are pushing interest in buying smaller vehicles– Increasing fuel prices– Declining family size (aging population)– Increasing urbanization– Environmental consciousness

Safety Sells

• Ability to show a smaller vehicle is safe (or safer) than other is a selling point for car makers

• Allows consumer to have best of all worlds– Safety – Fuel efficiency– Environmental consciousness

Safety Sells

• Two major safety priorities for in-vehicle ITS

– Reduce the likelihood of an accident

– Reduce the effects when one occurs

Safety Sells

• Different ITS safety features sell to different markets, e.g.,– Parents of small children

• Back-up assistance

– Elderly drivers• Night vision assistance• Collision warning (side view)

– General• Collision warning (side view & queue detection)• Collision avoidance - (impact attenuation too?)• Run off the road warning• Hazard notification (black ice warning)

2020 ITS Safety Improvements

• All of those improvements can be performed using on-board sensors

• All can be enhanced by vehicle-to-vehicle communications

• Roadside sensors w/ communications likely to be a tertiary data source

Desired Motorist Experience 2020

Convenience is Key

Does my car make my life easier? Or more complicated?

2020 Motorist Experience

• Life is simplified– Paperwork handling

• Tolling (multiple toll authorities)– Buying other services - coffee, burgers

• Insurance handling

• Automated service notification (remote diagnostics)

• Concierge services

• Routing (when needed / desired)

• Carpool eligibility?

Motorist Experience

• Complexity of systems is hidden from driver/owner– Integration of systems is seamless– Subsystems are controlled (mostly) verbally

• O/D for routing• Simple tasks too

– Set clock– Set radio buttons, change music selections– Environmental controls

• While still adding functionality

Motorist Experience

• And allowing for flexibility– Ability to turn on/off features/services– Select how traveler information is provided

• Travel times

• Existence and location of incidents

• Routing directions

• Alternatives (if available)

– Desire to NOT pay for services• (25% of US households currently do not have cell

phone)

Motorist Experience

• Integrate vehicle with owner’s “outside life”– Cell phone accounts– External music accounts/choices– Business / personal accounts

• Allow purchase of goods/services to be connected to motorist’s financial accounts

• Charge different tolling accounts

– Vehicle ownership identification (to start vehicle), or optional passenger identification (for carpool pricing / formation)

Motorist Experience

• Driver distraction is a major issue, and one likely to grow in importance – as more in-vehicle services are provided

• ITS has the potential to– Make distraction worse (more stimuli)– Reduce distractions (better controls)– Reduce danger from distractions (warning

systems)

Our 2020 vision: Motorist Experience• The driver still (primarily) controls the vehicle• The car should make the driver’s life easier

– It provides information to the driver– Uses technology to reduce distractions – It warns of bad or distracted driving decisions– Assists the driver’s actions in avoiding accidents– Interacts, where possible, with roadside services – Gets most external input from vehicle-vehicle

communications or on-board sensors– Connected, bundled services ease customer’s

paperwork burden

Institutional Issues

• Federal influence is likely to decrease as the percentage of highway funds that are federally controlled decreases

• Federal role may become more of a facilitator of standards development / acceptance

Summary

• Roadway transportation changes in the last 100 years have been evolutionary, not revolutionary

• We do not see revolutionary change by 2020

Summary

• Public ITS deployment will be constrained by a lack of resources

• Thus, vehicle manufacturers should not count on extensive public VII infrastructure deployment– Only key services in key locations

Summary

• Most safety and service improvements must therefore come from the vehicle itself– This requires unprecedented integration of

currently independent systems

• Public sector will support, but is unlikely to lead these efforts– Unless a very clear public benefit emerges