“it's the demography stupid”

“It's the Demography Stupid”

Ethnic Change and Immigration Restriction in England

Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck [email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm;

web: sneps.net;

mailto:[email protected]

England:84% of Britain

Britain English ethnic core: 73% of England

White British: 77% of England

Other White British:Scots, Welsh, Irish, Ulster British

Source: Ipsos MORI, 'Attitudes to Immigration' (forthcoming). Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Catholic % and Female Orange Membership, Scot-land, 1855-2001

% Catholic

Female Orange Members

% C

atho

lic

Response to Catholic Growth• 1923: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee

issues report entitled The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality

• 1932: 'We are losing some of the best of our race stock by migration and their place is being taken by those whom whatever their merits, are not Scottish' - novelist John Buchan at Parliament in November 1932

• 1952: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee condemns Irish Catholics for displacing the 'native Scots population' from industrial Scotland and derided them as a 'compact community largely of alien origin' (Devine 2008)

Pendle

Wigan

Bexley

Solihull

Derby

Tower HamletsAmber Valley

Epping Forest

South Tyneside

Burnley

Gateshead

Sandwell

Hastings

Barnsley

Barnsley

Epping Forest

Leeds

Sandwell

BirminghamWakefield

South TynesideSouth Tyneside

Nuneaton and BedworthBurnley

Rochdale

Burnley

Newcastle upon Tyne

BexleyManchester

Sandwell

Bexley

Walsall

GreenwichStoke-on-Trent

Hounslow

Newcastle upon Tyne

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Manchester

KirkleesRochford

Kirklees

Kirklees

Hillingdon

Bexley

Bexley

Sandwell

Merton

Liverpool

BirminghamWigan

Kirklees

Coventry

WolverhamptonBromley

Halton

Kirklees

Solihull

Cannock Chase

Hillingdon

Wakefield

Sandwell

Broxbourne

Coventry

Hounslow

LeedsKirklees

Birmingham


Calderdale BarnetBirmingham

Sunderland

KirkleesGreenwich

Stockport

Hertsmere

RochdaleBarnsley

WolverhamptonMertonGreenwich

Harrogate

Pendle Barnsley

Wigan

Barnsley

Coventry

Bexley

Sandwell

South TynesideBasingstoke and Deane

Kirklees

Leeds

Greenwich

Bristol, City ofGateshead

Bexley

KirkleesLiverpoolNewcastle upon Tyne

HarrogateRochford

Amber Valley

South Tyneside

Ealing

GatesheadSunderlandBarnsley

Doncaster

Stoke-on-Trent

Sandwell

Harrogate

Sandwell

BurnleyBirmingham

Sandwell

SunderlandSunderland

Rotherham

RochdaleDerby Kirklees

Ipswich

Redbridge

Gateshead

Sandwell

Greenwich

Gateshead

Sutton

South Tyneside

North Tyneside


St. Helens

Calderdale

Bolton

Kirklees

Tower HamletsWigan

Bristol, City ofRichmond upon Thames

Solihull

Greenwich

Bexley

Calderdale

Bradford

Islington

Barnsley

Kirklees

Sunderland

Leeds

Sandwell

Solihull

BirminghamPendle

GatesheadNewcastle upon TyneBristol, City of

Barnsley

KirkleesBolton

Solihull

Coventry

Camden

Solihull

Redbridge

BirminghamNewcastle upon Tyne

Wakefield

Gateshead

HertsmereSouth Tyneside

BradfordBarnsley

Epping ForestCroydon

Solihull

Wakefield

Coventry

Croydon

St. Helens

WakefieldWigan

Worcester

RedditchSandwell

Wakefield

Hounslow

Worcester

Basildon

Greenwich

BexleySandwell

SunderlandGateshead

Barnsley

Leeds

Newcastle upon Tyne

BassetlawNewcastle upon Tyne

Amber ValleyBarnsley

St. Helens

Kirklees

South TynesideLiverpool

Leeds

Cannock ChaseWakefield

Burnley

Wolverhampton

Kirklees

Nuneaton and BedworthBarnsley

Hounslow

St. HelensSt. Helens

Bradford

Burnley

Burnley

HaveringHastings

Bolton

Birmingham

Wakefield

Redbridge

Bristol, City ofSouth Tyneside

Brent

CalderdaleLiverpool


Wakefield

Croydon

Gateshead

Stoke-on-Trent

Manchester

WiganWorcester

Bolton

Sutton

Newcastle upon TyneBirminghamWiganCarlisle

Stockport

Solihull

Sandwell

Bradford

Calderdale

Bradford

Sandwell

Merton

Pendle

Bristol, City of

Stoke-on-Trent

Nuneaton and BedworthBexley

Newcastle upon Tyne

Wigan

Solihull

Greenwich

Newcastle upon Tyne

Southwark

Amber Valley

Birmingham

Ealing

Crawley

LeedsNorth Tyneside

WiganWakefieldBristol, City ofBexleyKirklees

Crawley

Kirklees

Leeds

Epping Forest

Bristol, City of

Solihull

Barnsley

Leeds

Sandwell

South Tyneside

CarlisleNewcastle upon Tyne

Solihull

BexleyBarnsley

Nuneaton and BedworthLeeds

BirminghamSutton

Bexley

LeedsSunderland

Bexley

Worcester

Crawley

Pendle

Warrington

Hastings

Bradford

CoventrySouth Tyneside Bristol, City ofLeeds

Merton

Newcastle upon Tyne

Rochdale CoventrySandwell

BexleyGateshead

Rochford

SandwellSouth TynesideNuneaton and Bedworth

BirminghamBasildon

Calderdale

Broxbourne

Coventry

Leeds

Carlisle

North TynesideBristol, City of

Pendle

South Tyneside

Sandwell

Derby

South Tyneside

CrawleyHounslow

Stockport

Hillingdon

Richmond upon Thames

GatesheadGatesheadWigan

Hastings

Gateshead

St. Helens

LeedsBarrow-in-Furness

Greenwich

South TynesideSt. Helens

Manchester

Nuneaton and BedworthBarnsleyPendle Broxbourne

North TynesideWigan

Leeds

Sandwell

Newcastle upon Tyne

Enfield

Coventry

Newcastle upon Tyne

Stockport

Wandsworth

Derby

Tower Hamlets

St. Helens

Newcastle upon Tyne

Burnley

Oldham

Pendle

Swindon

Greenwich

Newcastle upon TyneWigan

Newcastle upon Tyne

CamdenBristol, City of


Greenwich

Rochford

Wigan

Newcastle upon Tyne

Barnsley

South TynesideBirmingham

RedbridgeBurnley

Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle upon Tyne

Amber Valley

GatesheadCoventry

South Tyneside Sandwell

Camden

Birmingham

Sandwell

Stockport

North Hertfordshire

Newcastle upon TyneSouth Tyneside

Bexley

Hyndburn

Wigan

MertonHounslow

Leeds

Kingston upon Hull, City ofKirklees

Bexley

WorcesterNuneaton and Bedworth

Kirklees

Salford

Newcastle upon Tyne

Sunderland

Tower HamletsDerby

Wigan

Gateshead

Barking and Dagenham

Croydon

Doncaster

Sandwell

Solihull

Crawley

SolihullStockportKnowsley

Birmingham

Solihull

ExeterBirmingham

Birmingham

Solihull

BirminghamBirmingham

Birmingham

Southend-on-Sea

Southend-on-Sea

Bradford

Birmingham

Bradford

Wigan

SalfordBirmingham

Wirral Colchester

Wirral

Wigan

Southend-on-Sea

Wigan

StockportLiverpool

Southend-on-SeaBury

LeedsManchesterLiverpool


Southend-on-SeaCroydon

Leeds

Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea

Birmingham

Tameside

Leeds

Birmingham

Birmingham

TamesideSalfordSolihull

TamesideBirmingham

Liverpool

Lincoln

Lincoln CroydonSouthend-on-Sea

Tameside

LeedsWirral

Salford

Redbridge

Southend-on-Sea

Barnsley

Bristol, City of

LeedsSefton

BirminghamNorth Hertfordshire

Liverpool

Coventry

Swindon

Southend-on-SeaLeedsTameside Croydon

Salford

Wirral

Doncaster

Leeds

Birmingham

Birmingham

Tameside

Salford Salford

Stoke-on-Trent

Carlisle

Enfield

Enfield


Coventry

SalfordSheffield


Wirral

Enfield

Rotherham

Sefton

Sheffield

Leeds

Greenwich

Newcastle upon Tyne

Manchester

Sefton

Tameside

Southend-on-Sea

ManchesterSwindonBromley

Sefton

RotherhamDoncaster

WiganLincolnStockport

Basildon

Carlisle

DoncasterManchester

Bexley

Carlisle

Rotherham

Kirklees

SunderlandCarlisle

Salford

Sefton

Tameside

DudleyLeeds

Tameside

Swindon

Thurrock

SheffieldSwindonSheffield

Barnsley

Wolverhampton

Milton Keynes

SeftonCoventry

Bexley

Basildon

Bristol, City ofLeedsTameside

Bexley

Stockport

StevenageKingston upon Hull, City ofCoventry

Bexley SheffieldLeeds

Bromley

Birmingham

Leeds

Havering

Burnley

Sutton

Southend-on-Sea

Wakefield

Leeds

Sheffield

Carlisle

TamesideWakefield

Tameside

Leeds

KirkleesSheffield

Thurrock

Walsall

Wakefield

RotherhamThurrock

Bury

Tameside

Lincoln

Tameside

Bury

Sheffield

Rotherham

North Hertfordshire

Sheffield

Dudley

Basildon

Basildon

Leeds

Thurrock

BasildonSouthend-on-Sea

Thurrock

Sheffield

Bury

Bury

Sheffield

Worcester

Reigate and BansteadCarlisleSouthend-on-Sea

North East Lincolnshire

Sheffield

Bradford

Basildon

Southend-on-Sea

Basildon

Sunderland

Sefton

BuryAmber Valley

Sefton

Tameside

Thurrock

Basildon

Havering

Havering

Rotherham

Thurrock

Bury

Wakefield

Sheffield

BuryReigate and Banstead

Wakefield

Dudley

Bury

Barnsley

BroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourne

SunderlandRotherham

Hartlepool

Barnsley

Southend-on-Sea

CrawleyRotherham

Sefton

ThurrockThurrock

BuryBasildon

Basildon

Barnsley

Basildon

Plymouth

WakefieldHartlepool

Thurrock

Thurrock

Wakefield

Hartlepool

Wakefield

Basildon

Southend-on-Sea

Thurrock

Thurrock

Thurrock

Rotherham

Hartlepool

WakefieldRotherham

Sunderland

010

2030

0 1000 2000 3000 4000% White British 2001 x Change in Minority Share '01-11

wards Fitted values

BNP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections, 2010-12%

BN

P V

ote

(Whi

te B

ritis

h O

nly)

Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

Bradford

Westminster

Birmingham

ExeterHaringey

SheffieldExeter

Westminster

Camden

WokingLambethEaling

Birmingham

Camden

SheffieldCambridgeSouth Cambridgeshire

Merton Cambridge

Harrow

South CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireWokingSwindon

Islington

Kensington and Chelsea

Wirral Reading Newcastle-under-LymeMilton Keynes

Ealing

Merton

Westminster

Hammersmith and Fulham

WirralEastleigh

CroydonCroydon

Richmond upon ThamesMole Valley

Croydon

Merton

BirminghamTraffordSheffield

Harrow

Southend-on-SeaOxford

Westminster

Wirral

Southend-on-SeaEastleigh

Wirral

BradfordGosport

South CambridgeshireBirminghamBradford

WiganSeftonWirral

BirminghamExeterBradford

WirralWirralWirral

ExeterWiganSouthend-on-SeaWiganWokingham

SheffieldSwindon

Exeter

Milton Keynes

Waltham Forest

South CambridgeshireWokingham Doncaster

Waltham Forest

Chorley

Harrow

Kensington and Chelsea

SouthamptonWokingSouthend-on-Sea

Leeds

West LindseyWirralManchester

Croydon

ExeterMilton KeynesGloucesterDoncasterReigate and BansteadMaidstone

Milton Keynes

Wokingham


Eastleigh

Southend-on-SeaMilton Keynes

Croydon

LeedsStockport

Southend-on-Sea

SheffieldBirminghamTameside

Croydon

Norwich

SuttonBradford

Reigate and Banstead

Croydon

Milton KeynesEastleighGosport Milton KeynesBasingstoke and Deane

EastleighTamesideTrafford

Milton KeynesReigate and BansteadTameside

BirminghamMole Valley Woking

WirralBradfordEastleigh

Huntingdonshire

Wirral

Sheffield

Merton

Wirral

SouthamptonLincolnHavant

Lincoln Eastleigh

LincolnRedbridge

WokingWokingham

PlymouthBasingstoke and Deane Milton KeynesSouth CambridgeshireCroydon

HaveringTameside

Newham

SeftonLeeds

Lincoln

WirralNorwichWirral

RedbridgeBromley

Swindon

Southend-on-SeaGosportLincolnSefton

Wokingham

WirralEastleighSefton Epping ForestNorwich

Woking


WirralMole ValleyWoking

Enfield

Merton

WirralPurbeck

CoventrySwindonStevenage

Milton KeynesNorwich

SouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaNorwich

CroydonBromley

BradfordSefton Tameside

Croydon

Huntingdonshire

Walsall Hounslow

MaidstoneSheffield

WirralBirmingham

Redbridge

Crawley

Enfield


Tameside

Sefton

Enfield

Mole ValleyGloucester

Milton KeynesEastleigh

BromleyHavant

BromleyHaveringSouth Cambridgeshire

Manchester

Tandridge

Tameside

Stoke-on-TrentNewcastle-under-Lyme


Enfield

Enfield

StevenageTandridgeReading


Maidstone


Eastleigh

Enfield

WalsallRotherhamNorth East LincolnshireSefton

Stoke-on-TrentStoke-on-TrentManchester

Sheffield

LeedsWokingham

Greenwich

Redbridge

FarehamWirral

Woking

Newcastle upon TyneStoke-on-Trent

Sefton Mole ValleySeftonWoking Manchester

Milton Keynes

Sefton

WolverhamptonSwindonNorth East LincolnshireBromley

SeftonRotherhamDoncaster

Gloucester

BrentwoodWigan

EastleighDudley

LincolnExeter

Maidstone

TamesideLincolnLincoln

Eastleigh

WokingStoke-on-TrentMilton Keynes

Stockport

Kingston upon Hull, City ofSwale

West Lindsey

Doncaster

DoncasterStoke-on-Trent

Manchester

GosportBromleyExeter

BexleySutton

Eastleigh

Milton KeynesWokingham

BromleyNewcastle-under-Lyme

RotherhamMole Valley

GloucesterStoke-on-TrentNewcastle-under-Lyme

Mole Valley

DudleySefton

Stevenage

Havant

Eastleigh

Newcastle-under-LymeTamesideDudley

Leeds South Cambridgeshire

Tameside

Sefton TandridgeHuntingdonshireStevenage


SheffieldAdur

West LindseyNewcastle-under-Lyme

Sheffield

Milton KeynesNewcastle-under-LymeWest Lindsey

Tameside

Walsall

Manchester

EastleighFarehamAdur

Walsall

Tunbridge Wells

WokingKingston upon Hull, City of

WolverhamptonGloucester

North Hertfordshire

Epping Forest

Milton KeynesSefton

BexleyStoke-on-Trent

Basildon

Walsall

SwindonSwindonSwindonSwindon

Leeds

TamesideDudley

BexleyRotherham

Exeter

HuntingdonshireTunbridge Wells

Stevenage

Plymouth


Stevenage


WokinghamReigate and BansteadCoventry

HaveringBexley

Woking

Tandridge

Hillingdon

Newcastle-under-LymeWalsall Bromley

Birmingham

Bromley

Leeds


Gosport

Sheffield

North HertfordshireWolverhamptonWorthingMole Valley


Tandridge

Sefton BromleyHaveringBrentwood

Chorley

Sutton

Walsall

Sutton Sutton

Gosport

Tandridge

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Dudley

Havering

PlymouthReigate and BansteadSeftonExeterPurbeck Worthing


SheffieldTameside

Tunbridge Wells

Wolverhampton

RunnymedeStoke-on-Trent

Worthing

ThurrockWalsall

AdurWalsall

Wakefield

PlymouthWokingham

Rotherham

ThurrockReigate and BansteadWokingham

Dudley

Lincoln

Stoke-on-Trent

Tandridge

Havering

Lincoln

Runnymede


Fareham

Adur

Tandridge

HaveringRotherham

Sheffield

Tunbridge WellsStevenage

Worthing


Kingston upon Hull, City of

Dudley

Basildon

Dudley

PlymouthBasildonPlymouthWalsallAdur

Havering

Dudley

North East LincolnshireReigate and Banstead

Adur


Stevenage

Thurrock

PlymouthNorth East LincolnshireCarlisle

North East LincolnshireDoncasterWiganHuntingdonshire


Worthing

Havering

North East LincolnshireWaveney

Dudley

Bradford

Mole Valley

Waveney


Walsall

Newcastle-under-Lyme Kingston upon Hull, City of

Basildon

Mole ValleyHavant

Worthing

Mole ValleyWaveneyDudley

Bradford


HavantPlymouth

Brentwood

HaveringDudley

PlymouthWorthing

WorthingAdur

Tandridge

SeftonTameside

Thurrock

Stevenage

Stoke-on-Trent

Reigate and BansteadNorth East Lincolnshire

Tandridge

Basildon

Havering

WalsallHavering

RotherhamSeftonRotherham

HuntingdonshireSwale

Plymouth

Adur

Adur

Wokingham

Reigate and BansteadWaveney Swale

SheffieldBrentwoodDudleyAdur

Rotherham

Havant

PlymouthAdurBrentwood

Runnymede

Rotherham

Dudley

TandridgePlymouth

Sefton

Plymouth

RotherhamHartlepool Southend-on-Sea

Swale

Dudley

Tunbridge Wells

Runnymede

Huntingdonshire

Plymouth

RunnymedeNewcastle-under-Lyme

Huntingdonshire


Worthing

Milton Keynes

PlymouthWorthing RunnymedeRotherham

PlymouthPlymouth

ThurrockThurrock

RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme

Dudley

North East LincolnshireHuntingdonshire

SheffieldDudley

Plymouth


Hartlepool

West Lindsey


Thurrock

Hartlepool

RotherhamSwale

Runnymede

Plymouth

Hartlepool

Rotherham

Waveney

Hartlepool


Newcastle-under-LymeAdur

North East LincolnshireSouthend-on-Sea

West Lindsey

Thurrock

ThurrockRotherham

Tandridge

Adur

Dudley

Adur


Rotherham

Hartlepool




010

2030

0 1000 2000 3000 4000% White British in 2001 x Change in minority share '01-11

Wards Fitted values

UKIP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections 2010-12%

UK

IP v

ote

Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

English Ethnic Nationalism

Individualism Cultural Liberalism

Integration/ Assimilation/Boundary Shift

Immigration and Minority Growth

-

- -

+

Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of minorities in ward,

white British only

50556065707580859095

UpperWorking classAll

Least Renters

2 3 4 Most Renters

50556065707580859095

UpperWorkingBase

Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of renters, among

ward residents, white British only

Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and Home Office 2010, 2011)

Minority Growth Matters more than East European Immigration for Opinion

• Minority changes at low-scale and levels at large-scale heighten white opposition

• Minority levels at low-scale reduce opposition• White Other/E European share not associated with

opposition to immigration• Minorities: whether UK-born, English-speaking, social

housing, employed, matters little. Mixed, Muslim, Caribbean – sporadic effects

• Contact and Habituation of native white population to the local presence of minorities, even if segregated/foreign-born/Muslim, seems key

Immigration and Immigration Opinion in the US & Canada since 1965

Source: Wilkes, Guppy & Farris 2007

Conclusion

• Minority change associated with more English ethnic nationalism

• Minority levels can mean less opposition: but requires residential integration

• Local contact with and habituation to minorities, rather than deep integration, reduces opposition to immigration

• Assimilation has historically reduced ethnic nationalism

“It's the Demography Stupid”

Ethnic Change and Immigration Restriction in England

Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck [email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm;

web: sneps.net

mailto:[email protected]

“it's the demography stupid”

Documents