Forest Carbon Stock Change Uncertainty Estimation in Mexico

Oswaldo Carrillo, Jorge Morfín, Craig Wayson, Gustavo Rodríguez, Luis Rangel, Miguel Muñoz, Marcela Olguín and Lucio Santos

October 2014

• What is the Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) system in Mexico

• General process of carbon stock change estimation in Mexico and its uncertainty under a MRV system

• Importance of uncertainty estimation in a national GHG emissions report

• Limitations in developing countries to estimate GHG emissions and its uncertainty

• General methodologies of carbon stock change estimation in Mexico

• Evolution of carbon emission estimation in Mexico and changes in trends

• What are the political implications?

• So we need to be sure that this carbon stock change Is real for FL-FL

• For FL-FL, how was forest carbon stock change estimated and as well as its uncertainty?

• The National Forest Inventory data shows that Mexican forest sector is a huge sink and, their uncertainties of estimations are moderate

• Next steps

What is the MRV system in México

MRV is part of strategies and policies for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, as well as the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+).

A comprehensive national forest MRV system should consider 3 major components for measuring, monitoring and reporting anthropogenic GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the forest sector:

• a Satellite Land Monitoring System to assess activity data (AD), forest area and forest area changes.

• a National Forest Inventory to assess carbon stocks and changes in carbon stocks (i.e. emission factors - EF);

• a National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory to estimate and report anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks;

The MRV system in México

Some characteristics of an MRV system to support REDD+ implementation:

• Multiscale: designed to measure, monitor, and report forest resources at a national and subnational scale.

• Should rely on both remote sensing and ground based forest inventory approaches.

• The MRV system must be transparent :• well documented robust methodologies

• consistent

• accurate (reducing uncertainties at least for key categories, and incorporating Quality Control and Quality Assessment in all steps).

• MRV system should provide timely and appropriate feedback to policymakers on the effectiveness of REDD+ strategies.

General process of carbon stock change estimation in Mexico and their uncertainties under a MRV system

One of the main objectives of Mexican MRV system is the update of GHG report in the LULUCF category

Importance of uncertainty estimation in a national GHG emissions report

Reference: IPCC 2006

¿What are the limitations in developing countries to estimate GHG emissions and their uncertainties?

It is not a common practice

not enough information

not representative at national levelchanges are

made in the methodologies

no standard statistical methods

no permanent staff to estimate GHG emissions

decision makers don´t have the technical background

General methodologies of carbon stocks changes estimation in Mexico -inputs

Stratified, systematic random sample

Grid of km | 5x5 | 10x10 | 20x20 |

Sampling: 2004-2007Re sampling: 2009 - 2013

UMP = 26, 220Sitos = 81, 665

INEGI Land cover map Series lV (2007)INEGI Land cover map Series V (2012)

Land cover maps developed by the Statistics and Geography National Institute (INEGI)

General methodologies of carbon stock changes estimation in Mexico -categories

FL-OU

FL-FL

FL-FLd

FLd-FL

OU-FL

Forest Land (FL) converted to Other Uses (OU)

Forest Land remaining Forest Land

Forest Land remaining Forest Land but degraded (FLd)

Degraded Forest Land changing to no degraded Forest Land

Other Uses converted to Forest Land

Evolution of carbon emission estimation in Mexico and changes in trends

20064° GHG

19901° GHG

19982° GHG

20023° GHG

20105° GHG

FL-OUFL-FLdFLd-FLOU-FL

2009-2012 (14) re-sampling

INFyS

2004-2007 sampling

INFyS

FL-OUFL-FLdFLd-FLOU-FL

FL-FL

-180000

-160000

-140000

-120000

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Including FL-FL

Including FL-FL

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Not including FL-FL

Not including FL-FL

• We found that FL-FL seems to be a large sink.

• When de total removals of LF remain LF is included in the LULUCF total emission, the emission trend at national level change and the LULUCF sector was estimated to be a sink.

• Its means, that LF-LF are a huge sink and is able to soak up all the emission coming from FL-OU and FL-FLd

Evolution of carbon emission estimation in Mexico and changes in trends

What are the political implications?

• The forest sector of Mexico seems to be a sink, and can be a strategic sector to reduce the total carbon emissions of Mexico

• For this reason, the Mexican government is interested in having a robust statistical support for these estimations and their uncertainties.

• If these results are well supported and their uncertainties are moderate, the total sink of FL-FL is able to soak up an important part of the total carbon emissions of Mexico!

-40,000,000 -30,000,000 -20,000,000 -10,000,000 - 10,000,000

FL-FL

FL-FLd

FLd-FL

OU-FL

FL-OU

FL-FL FL-FLd FLd-FL OU-FL FL-OU

Emissions -39,733,337 494,260 -1,733,354 -799,587 3,067,576

Emissions

So we need to be sure that this carbon stock change Is real for FL-FL• Is accurate and precise this estimation?

• We need a precise and accurate estimation

as the IPCC guidelines suggested

• Following the sampling design of the NFI, ratio estimator is a precise and accurate estimator:

6

475

8

387

2

953

5

931

Reference: IPCC 2006

R = 𝑖=1𝑛 y𝑖

𝑖=1𝑛 𝑎𝑖

Where: R =Ratio estimator at strata level

y𝑖 =Total carbon at sub-plot level (o UMS) 𝑖

𝑎𝑖 = Sub-plot sampled area (o UMS) 𝑖 (400m2)𝑛 = Number of sub − plots

𝑅 =5 + 6 + 4 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 3 + 8 + 3 + 2 + 9 + 5 + 1 + 5 + 9 + 3

0.04 × 16

𝑅 =85

0.64= 132.8

We need to be sure that this carbon stock change in FL-FL Is real

• What is the level of uncertainty of this estimation?

• Uncertainty estimation of EF at strata level

• Error propagation IPCC methods (2006)

• Analytical method 𝑈𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 =𝑈1∗𝐴1

2+ 𝑈2∗𝐴22+⋯+ 𝑈𝑛∗𝐴𝑛

2

𝐴1+𝐴2+⋯+𝐴𝑛

• where:

Utotal : total uncertainty.

Ui : Uncertainty of factor i, con i=1…n

𝑛: Number of factors

Ai : Uncertain quantities i.

• Monte Carlo simulation

𝑈 = 1 2 𝐼𝐶

𝑅=1.96 𝑉 𝑅

𝑅× 100

𝑉 𝑅 =1

𝑛 𝑛 − 1 𝑎2

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝑦𝑖2 − 2 𝑅

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝑦𝑖𝑎𝑖 + 𝑅2

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝑎𝑖2

Reference: IPCC 2006

For FL-FL, how was forest carbon stock change estimated and as well as its uncertainty?

“FL remaining as FL”• GHG in FL-FL needs the estimates of

carbon stock changes.

• Methods

Gain and loss

Stock change

Is a closer approach to TIER2

This approach is better suited to the data

available in Mexico

Is convenient when there is National Forest

Inventory

Reference: IPCC 2006

We estimate the carbon stock change at sub-plot level

C1=0.8

C5=1.2

C2=1C3=2.5

C4=1.5

C1=0.9

C5=1.5

C2=1.2

C3=2.5

C4=1.8

C3=2.7

∆𝐶1 = 8.1 − 7.0= 0.1

t1t2

𝐶1 = 0.8 + 1 + 2.5 + 1.5 + 1.2𝐶1 =7

𝐶1 = 0.9 + 1.2 + 2.7 + 1.8 + 1.5𝐶1 = 8.1

For FL-FL, how was forest carbon stock change estimated and as well as its uncertainty?

t1 t2

t2-t1

BPE

BE

PBPE

BE

P

PPBPE

BE

BPE-BE

BE-P

𝐶𝐴 𝑡1 𝐶𝐴 𝑡2

∆𝐶𝐴 = 𝐶𝐴 𝑡2 − 𝐶𝐴 𝑡1

∆𝐶𝑖 ∆𝑆1 = 𝑆1𝑡2 − 𝑆1𝑡1∆𝑆2 = 𝑆2𝑡2 − 𝑆2𝑡1∆𝑆3 = 𝑆3𝑡2 − 𝑆3𝑡1∆𝑆4 = 𝑆4𝑡2 − 𝑆4𝑡1

For FL-FL, how was forest carbon stock change estimated and as well as its uncertainty?

The National Forest Inventory data shows that Mexican forest sector is a huge sink and, their uncertainties of estimations are moderate

Satratan

Emission Factors(ton/ha/year)

Uncertainty(%)

BCO/P - BCO/P 3190 -0.43 25

BCO/S - BCO/S 780 -0.30 57

BE/P - BE/P 2330 -0.46 19BE/S - BE/S 1037 -0.48 24

BM/P - BM/P 245 -1.46 52

BM/S - BM/S 102 -0.30 228

EOTL/P - EOTL/P 22 +0.41 311

EOTL/S - EOTL/S 28 -0.09 193

EOTnL/P - EOTnL/P 1 0.00 NA

MXL/P - MXL/P 1116 +0.15 51

MXL/S - MXL/S 129 -0.04 324

MXnL/P - MXnL/P 599 -0.06 158

MXnL/S - MXnL/S 58 +0.10 144

P - P 1186 -0.10 110

SC/P - SC/P 660 -0.41 48

SC/S - SC/S 413 -0.66 35

SP/P - SP/P 1436 -0.48 51

SP/S - SP/S 280 -0.63 63

SSC/P - SSC/P 680 -1.36 18SSC/S - SSC/S 187 -0.63 63

VHL/P - VHL/P 142 -1.03 56

VHL/S - VHL/S 11 -0.78 105

VHnL/P - VHnL/P 49 -0.17 159

OU-LF 678,780 799,587-

LF-LF 86,073,201 39,733,337- 13

LF-LFd 238,116 494,260

LFd-LF 1,147,570 1,733,354-

Total 88,137,667 41,772,018- 13

Subcategory Area (has) Emission (ton/year) U (%)

-40,000,000 -30,000,000 -20,000,000 -10,000,000 - 10,000,000

LF-LF

FL-FLd

FLd-FL

OU-LF

FL-OU

LF-LF FL-FLd FLd-FL OU-LF FL-OU

Emissions -39,733,337 494,260 -1,733,354 -799,587 3,067,576

Emissions

The National Forest Inventory data shows that Mexican forest sector is a huge sink and, their uncertainties of estimations are moderate

Mexico can move in the emission ranking

Forest carbon sector is important to reduce emissions of Mexico

FL-FL subcategori of Mexico is a sink

This estimations can be used by maker decisions

What does It

mean for

Mexico?

• Mexico could move from 14th to

36th position in the emission

countries ranking.

Mean04

• Forest sector is very important

to offset the total carbon

emission of Mexico.

Mean

03

• Carbon stock change in FL-FL

is weakly negative.

• Mexican needs to improve the

management and

conservation of the forest

sector.

Mean02

• The estimations are accurate.

• The levels of uncertainty are

moderate for key strata (18-

63%).

Mean01

Next steps

We need to try reduce the uncertainty and make more accurate our estimations of carbon stock change in the forest sector at national and subnational levels

• We need to increase our knowledge from other uncertainty sources

• We need to improve methods of measurement and estimation methodologies of NFI to reduce uncertainty

Reference: Chave, 2012

Thank you!