ivrcl 3q fy 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 IVRCL 3Q FY 2013
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 2QFY13 % chg (qoq)Revenue 1,494 1,598 (6.5) 1,270 17.6EBITDA 134 103 30.0 68 96.8
PAT 6 5 22.6 (68) -Source: Company, Angel Research
For 3QFY2013, IVRCL ltd (IVRCL) reported a good set of numbers on the
profitability front, which were significantly above our and consensus
estimates. The companys order book stands at ~`27,444cr (including L1 ordes).
During the quarter, the company has entered into a definitive sale agreement with
TRIL Roads Pvt Ltd to divest stake (74%) in its three road BOT projects. As per the
Management, these asset sales are intended towards meeting the equity
requirement for the road BOT projects and reducing debt levels.
High other income boots bottom-line: The company reported revenues of`1,494cr in 4QFY2013, a decline of 6.5% yoy (slightly below our estimate of
`1,520cr). The EBITDAM grew by 252bp/360bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 9.0% for
the quarter, and was above our estimate of 8.7%. This was mainly on account of
pick up in execution and lower base of last year. The interest cost grew by
100.7%/16.9 on a yoy/qoq basis to `133cr for the quarter. On the earnings
front, IVRCLs PAT grew by 22.6% yoy to`6cr (our estimate was of a loss of`22cr)
in 3QFY2013. This was mainly on back of higher-than-expected other income of`44cr (a jump of 698% yoy). The other income includes a gain of `35cr on
account of monetization of a land parcel in Noida.
Outlook and valuation: IVRCL has a strong order book of ~`27,444cr (4.8xtrailing revenue), which provides comfortable revenue visibility. However the
proportion of slow moving orders remains high in the current order book. Given
the slower-than-expected execution and weak performance in FY2013, we lower
the EPS estimates for FY2014 to `1.4 and introduce FY2015E EPS to `1.8. Thestock is trading at FY2015E P/E (including subsidiaries) and P/BV of 10.3x and 0.3xrespectively. We recommend Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `29.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012(15M) FY2013E(9M) FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 6,178 3,759 5,673 5,892% chg (12.5) 1.4 13.2 3.8
Adj.Net Profit 18 (102) 44 56% chg (90.8) - - 27.2
EBITDA (%) 8.1 7.2 8.1 8.4
FDEPS (`) 0.6 (3.3) 1.4 1.8P/E (x) 32.0 - 13.1 10.3
P/BV (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
RoE (%) 0.8 (4.6) 2.0 2.6
RoCE (%) 8.5 4.4 7.8 8.2
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 10.7 6.5 6.3
Order/Sales (x) 5.6 5.8 4.9 4.9
Order inflows 11,112 4,441 5,976 6,975
% chg (14.3) (33.4) 0.9 16.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `19
Target Price `29
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Net debt 2,748
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 13.7
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 2.9
FII / NRIs / OCBs 24.7Indian Public / Others 58.7
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 2.2 22.1 14.3
IVRCL (24.1) (51.7) (89.4)
2
19,568
5,924
IVRC.BO
IVRC@IN
578
55/17
1,523,135
Infrastructure
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
52 Week High / Low
2.0Beta
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842
IVRCL InfrastructurePerformance Highlights
3QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure
June 5, 2013
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IVRCL Infrastructure | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 2QFY13 % chg (qoq) 9MFY2013 9MFY2012 % chg (yoy)Net sales 1,494 1,598 (6.5) 1,270 17.6 37,591 38,466 (2.3)Total expenditure 1,360 1,495 (9.0) 1,202 13.2 34,868 35,552 (1.9)Operating profit 134 103 30.0 68 96.8 2723 2915 (6.6)OPM (%) 9.0 6.4 252bp 5.4 360bp 7.2 7.6 (33)bp
Interest 133 66 100.7 114 16.9 3479 2854 21.9
Depreciation 22 27 (19.2) 22 (0.2) 640 747 (14.4)
Non operating income 44 5 698.4 17 149.3 704 998 (29.5)
Non recurring items - - - - -
Profit before tax 23 15 49.6 (50) (146.3) (691) 311 (321.9)
Tax 17 10 62.3 18 (7.3) 325 113 188.5
Reported PAT 6 5 22.6 (68) (108.9) (1017) 199 (611.7)
PAT (%) 0.4 0.3 10bp (5.4) (107.6) 0.3 2.8 -
Adjusted PAT 6 5 22.6 (68) (108.9) (1017) 199 (611.7)
Adj. PAT (%) 0.4 0.3 10bp (5.4) 577bp 0.3 2.8 (250)bp
Adj. FDEPS 0.2 0.16 (2.22) (110.2) (33.13) 6.47 (611.7)Source: Company, Angel Research,
Exhibit 2:3QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net Sales 1,494 1,520 (1.7)
EBITDA 134 132 1.3
Interest 133 118 12.9
Tax 17 21 (19.7)
PAT 6 (22) (127.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue execution improves
The company reported revenues of`1,494cr in 3QFY2013, a decline of 6.5% yoy
(slightly below our estimate of `1,520cr). This was mainly due to pick up in
execution activity, particularly in the EPC segment, during the quarter. Going
forward, given the strong order book position, we expect execution to improve in
FY2014.
During the quarter, the company has entered into a definitive sale agreement with
TRIL Roads Pvt Ltd to divest stake (74%) in its three road BOT projects-(a) Salem
Tollways, (b) Kumarapalayam Tollways and (c) IVRCL Chengapally Tollways.
However IVRCL will be able to sell only 49% stake in Chengapally Tollways since
the project is under construction as per NHAI. Once the project is completed, the
company can sell its remaining stake. The Management expects to complete the
sale transaction within the next two-three months.
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IVRCL Infrastructure | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Exhibit 3:Execution improves
Source: Company, Angel Research
Asset sale leads to profitability
The EBITDAM grew by 252bp/360bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 9.0% in 3QFY2013
and was above our estimate of 8.7%. This was mainly on account of pick up in
execution and lower base of last year. The interest cost grew by 100.7%/16.9% on
a yoy/qoq basis to `133cr for the quarter. On the earnings front, IVRCLs PAT
grew by 22.6% yoy to`6cr (our estimate was a loss of `22cr) in 3QFY2013. This
was mainly on back of higher-than-expected other income of `44cr (a jump of
694.4% yoy). The other income includes a gain of`35cr towards monetization of a
land parcel in Noida.
Exhibit 4:EBITDAM back on track
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5:Higher other income boosts bottom-line
Source: Company, Angel Research
1,
046
1,
203
1,
598
1,
207
995
1,
270
1,
494
(2.7)
(15.2)
(22.1)
7.4
(4.9)
5.6
(6.5)
(29.0)
(24.0)
(19.0)
(14.0)
(9.0)
(4.0)
1.0
6.0
11.0
16.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 5QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
9
4
9
4
1
03
1
24
7
0
6
8
1
34
9.0
7.9
6.4
10.3
7.1
5.4
9.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 5QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
EBITDA (`cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
0.80.6
0.3
(0.5)
(4.0)
(5.4)
0.4
(6.0)
(5.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
(90)
(70)
(50)
(30)
(10)
10
30
50
70
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 5QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
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IVRCL Infrastructure | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Order book analysis
The company secured orders worth `6,375cr during the last three quarters,
thereby taking the order book to `27,444cr (including L1 of `3,494cr) at end-
3QFY2013. Adjusting for L1 orders, it has an order book to sales ratio of ~4.8x
trailing revenues. Of the total order book, the proportion of slow moving orders,
(which particularly comprise of BOT transportation and irrigation segment orders)
remains high.
Exhibit 6:3QFY2013 revenue break-up (`cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:Order book break-up (` cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Change in estimates
Considering the poor performance in FY2013, we are revising our revenue
estimates for FY2014 to`5,673cr and introduce our FY2015 revenue estimate at`5,892cr. The EBITDAM has been revised to 8.1% for FY2014. Due to lower-than-
expected revenue performance and higher interest cost, we are now estimating a
PAT of`44cr (our earlier estimate was of a profit of`72cr) and`56cr for FY2014
and FY2015, respectively.
Exhibit 8:Change in estimates
FY2014E FY2015EEarlier Estimates Revised Estimates Variation (%) Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Variation (%)
Revenues (`cr) 6,287 5,673 (9.8) 5,892 5,892 0.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.5 8.1 (78)bp 8.4 8.4 0.0
PAT (`cr) 72 44 (38.5) 56 56 0.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
699
184
369
82
0
Water Transport Building Power Oil & Gas
9,898
9,071
4,623
1,672
1,253 927
Water Transport Building Power Mining International
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IVRCL Infrastructure | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Outlook and valuation
The company needs to invest ~`769cr in its BOT assets over the next three years.
Out of this, the company would need to invest `553cr in FY2014 and `139cr in
FY2015. During the quarter, the company has entered into a definitive sale
agreement with TRIL Roads Pvt Ltd to divest stake (74%) in its three road BOT
projects. We believe that monetisation of existing assets along with sale of land
parcels would help the company to fund its equity requirement. IVRCL has a strong
order book of ~`27,444cr (4.8x trailing revenues), which provides revenue
visibility; however, the company would need to focus on its execution going ahead,
which has not kept pace with order book growth.
Given the slower-than-expected execution and weak performance in FY2013, we
lower the EPS estimate for FY2014 to`1.4 and introduce FY2015 EPS to`1.8. The
stock is trading at a P/E (including subsidiaries) and P/BV of 10.3x and 0.3x
FY2015E earnings respectively. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a
target price of`29.
Exhibit 9:SOTP valuation
Particulars Segment Value(` cr) Value pershare (`) BasisIVRCL Standalone Construction 282 9 P/E of 5x FY15earnings
BOT projects BOT projects 560 18 Discount of 20% to book value
Hindustan Dorr Oliver Engineering 35 1Holding company discount of20%
Grand Total 877 29Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:Angel EPS forecast vs consensus
Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 1.4 1.5 (4)
FY2015E 1.8 1.9 (3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
IVRCL is one of the leading construction companies in India. Set up in 1987, the
company is based in Hyderabad and is promoted by E Sudhir Reddy. IVRCL has a
track record of executing infrastructure projects over the last two decades. The
company is the leader in water management and irrigation systems in India. It also
operates in the construction of road, buildings, industrial structures and power
transmission towers.
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Exhibit 11:Recommendation summary
Company CMP (`) TP (`) Rating Top-line (`cr) EPS (`) P/E OB/FY13 FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E Sales(x)
ABL 200 255 Buy 1,853 1,928 2,234 9.8 16.0 18.0 22.2 17.7 12.5 11.1 9.0 2.3CCCL 11 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (3.4) 16.5 5.6 2.2
IRB Infra 116 157 Buy 3,687 3,997 4,312 8.1 16.7 15.7 16.6 (0.3) 6.9 7.4 7.0 2.4
ITNL 175 230 Buy 6,645 7,444 8,041 10.0 26.8 29.8 32.1 9.4 6.5 5.9 5.4 2.2
IVRCL 19 29 Buy 3,759 5,673 5,892 8.4 (3.3) 1.4 1.8 - - 13.1 10.3 4.8JP Assoc. 67 90 Buy 13,358 14,850 15,631 8.2 2.2 2.5 2.9 13.8 30.4 26.5 23.5 -
L&T 1,420 1,761 Buy 60,873 68,946 78,040 13.2 67.5 77.9 88.3 14.4 21.0 18.2 16.1 2.5
NCC 30 42 Buy 5,725 6,167 6,945 10.1 2.4 2.7 3.6 22.0 12.5 11.4 8.4 3.2
Punj Lloyd 45 - Neutral 11,717 12,954 14,740 12.2 (0.2) 0.5 0.9 - - 88.6 48.2 1.9
Sadbhav 107 139 Buy 1,811 2,462 2,731 22.8 0.9 5.9 6.7 177.2 123.2 18.1 16.0 5.6
Simplex In. 99 131 Buy 5,897 6,308 7,033 9.2 10.8 11.9 18.7 31.9 9.2 8.4 5.3 2.7
Unity Infra 29 41 Buy 2,040 2,146 2,339 7.1 12.5 11.0 11.5 (4.0) 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12:SOTP break-up
Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `
ABL 87 34 - - 168 66 - - - - 255
CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16
IRB Infra 45 29 - - 112 71 - - - - 157
ITNL 80 35 - - 120 52 - - 30 13 230IVRCL 9 31 - - - - 20 69 - - 29JP Assoc. 24 27 23 25 - - - - 43 48 90
L&T 1,318 75 - - - - 443 25 - - 1,761
NCC 23 55 - - 7 17 - - 12 29 42
Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64
Sadbhav 47 33 - - 93 67 - - - - 139
Simplex In. 131 100 - - - - - - - - 131
Unity Infra 35 85 - - 6 15 - - - - 41
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Profit and loss (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY10 FY11 FY12(15M) FY13E(9M) FY14E FY15ENet Sales 5,492 5,651 6,178 3,734 5,656 5,874Other operating income - - - 25.1 17.0 17.6Total operating income 5,492 5,651 6,178 3,759 5,673 5,892% chg 12.2 2.9 (12.5) 1.4 13.2 3.8
Total Expenditure 4,961 5,137 5,677 3,487 5,212 5,396R.M. consumed 2,388 2,406 2,591 1,053 1,573 1,598
Construction expenses 2,240 2,322 2,554 2,153 3,275 3,401
Employee expenses 203 262 323 177 195 215
SG&A 130 147 208 103 170 182
EBITDA 531 515 501 272 461 496% chg 21.9 (3.1) (22.1) (9.4) 27.0 7.6
(% of Net Sales) 9.7 9.1 8.1 7.2 8.1 8.4
Depreciation & Amort. 54 76 119 64 97 102
EBIT 477 439 382 208 364 394% chg 22.8 (8.0) (30.3) (9.1) 31.2 8.2
(% of Net Sales) 8.7 7.8 6.2 5.6 6.4 6.7
Interest & other Charges 212 263 506 348 383 398
Other Income 64 57 170 70 85 88
(% of PBT) 19.4 24.3 366.7 (101.9) 128.4 104.8
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 329 233 46 (69) 66 84% chg 20.1 (29.3) (84.1) (349.1) (171.7) 27.2
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 329 233 46 (69) 66 84Tax 117.7 74.7 28.2 32.5 21.8 27.7
(% of PBT) 35.8 32.1 60.9 (47.1) 33.0 33.0
PAT (reported) 211 158 18 (102) 44 56Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
Prior period items - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 211 158 18 (102) 44 56ADJ. PAT 211 158 18 (102) 44 56% chg (6.6) (25.2) (90.8) - - 27.2(% of Net Sales) 3.8 2.8 0.3 (2.7) 0.8 1.0
Basic EPS (`) 7.9 5.9 0.6 (3.3) 1.4 1.8Fully Diluted EPS (`) 7.9 5.9 0.6 (3.3) 1.4 1.8% chg (53.3) (25.2) (92.0) - - 27.2
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Balance sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY10 FY11 FY12(15M) FY13E(9M) FY14E FY15ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 53 53 53 61 61 61Share App Money - - 8 - - -
Reserves & Surplus 1,800 1,934 2,209 2,108 2,124 2,151
Shareholders Funds 1,853 1,987 2,270 2,169 2,185 2,213Minority Interest - - - - - -Total Loans 1,613 2,096 2,638 2,505 2,605 2,705
Deferred Tax Liability 12 9 (39) (31) (31) (31)
Total Liabilities 3,479 4,092 4,870 4,643 4,759 4,887APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 750 924 1,011 1,043 1,103 1,163
Less: Acc. Depreciation 184 232 321 385 482 584
Net Block 566 692 690 657 621 579Capital Work-in-Progress 35 26 2 2 2 2
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 614 635 1,584 1,654 1,654 1,654Current Assets 4,700 5,452 5,569 6,126 6,055 6,344Inventories 245 273 272 269 278 288
Sundry Debtors 1,945 1,930 1,926 1,867 2,005 2,098
Cash 164 143 88 92 96 66
Loans & Advances 661 953 1,425 1,772 1,913 2,024
Other 1,686 2,153 1,857 2,127 1,762 1,866
Current liabilities 2,437 2,713 2,975 3,796 3,572 3,691
Net Current Assets 2,264 2,739 2,594 2,331 2,483 2,653Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 3,479 4,092 4,870 4,643 4,759 4,887
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Cash flow (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY10 FY11 FY12(15M) FY13E(9M) FY14E FY15EProfit before tax 329 233 46 (69) 66 84
Depreciation 42 49 89 64 97 102Change in Working Capital 91 (497) 91 267 (149) (200)
Less: Other income (64) (57) (170) (70) (85) (88)
Direct taxes paid (118) (75) (28) (33) (22) (28)
Cash Flow from Operations 280 (347) 28 159 (93) (129)(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (104) (165) (63) (31) (60) (60)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (225) (21) (950) (69) - -
Other income 64 57 170 70 85 88
Cash Flow from Investing (264) (129) (843) (30) 25 28Issue of Equity 27 - 8 - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 215 482 542 (133) 100 100
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (25) (19) - - (29) (29)
Others (169) (9) 210 9 (0) (0)
Cash Flow from Financing 48 455 760 (125) 71 71Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 63 (21) (55) 4 4 (30)
Opening Cash balances 101 164 143 88 92 96Closing Cash balances 164 143 88 92 96 66
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Key ratios
Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12(15M) FY13E(9M) FY14E FY15EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 2.4 3.2 32.0 - 13.1 10.3P/CEPS 1.9 2.2 4.2 - 4.1 3.7
P/BV 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dividend yield (%) 4.2 3.2 - - 4.2 4.2
EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5
EV/EBITDA 3.7 4.8 6.1 10.7 6.5 6.3
EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 7.9 5.9 0.6 (3.3) 1.4 1.8
EPS (fully diluted) 7.9 5.9 0.6 (3.3) 1.4 1.8
Cash EPS 9.9 8.8 4.5 (1.2) 4.6 5.2
DPS 0.8 0.6 - - 0.8 0.8
Book Value 69.3 74.3 73.9 70.6 71.1 72.0
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 8.7 7.8 6.2 5.6 6.4 6.7
Tax retention ratio 64.2 67.9 39.1 147.1 67.0 67.0
Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.2
ROIC (Post-tax) 9.5 8.2 3.4 6.6 5.3 5.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 9.0 9.6 8.4 19.9 10.1 10.1
Leverage (x) 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Operating ROE 9.9 7.0 (1.8) (8.3) (0.1) 0.3
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 14.2 11.6 8.5 4.4 7.8 8.2
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 15.0 12.2 8.8 4.5 7.9 8.3
ROE 11.5 8.2 0.8 (4.6) 2.0 2.6
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 7.8 6.8 6.4 3.7 5.3 5.2
Inventory / Sales (days) 15 17 20 20 18 18
Receivables (days) 109 125 142 139 125 127
Payables (days) 135 164 207 246 234 221
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 212 235 280 255 226 234
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Net debt to EBITDA 2.7 3.8 5.1 8.9 5.4 5.3
Interest Coverage 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement IVRCL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)