iwsm2014 transforming dust into pots of gold (alain abran)
TRANSCRIPT
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Software Estimation: Transforming Dust into
Gold?
Alain Abran École de Technologie Supérieure, University of Québec, Montréal, Canada
24th International Workshop on Software Measurement & 9th International Conf. on Software Process
and Product Measurement - IWSM-MENSURA 2014 Rotterdam, Oct.6- 8 2014
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© Copyrights Abran 2014 2
Alain Abran
20 years 20 years
+ 35 PhD Development
Maintenance
Process Improvements ISO: 19761, 9216,
25000, 15939,
14143, 19760
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Key Topics Addressed
A lot of software estimation practices share characteristics of craft practices, in comparison to current professional practices from engineering & sciences.
The goal of estimation in an uncertainty context is not come up with accurate estimate but to provide the required insights to manage uncertainty.
How do our current practices in software estimation stack up with best practices in project management?
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Or?
(Software) Estimation
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Software Estimation by ‘Experts’
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Estimation expectations
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Adjustment Phase
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A look at the prevalent estimation approach:
The ‘COCOMO-like’ approach
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COCOMO-like estimation models:
Effort is a function of Size & +15 step-functions
An Estimate
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COCOMO-like estimation models:
Effort is a function of Size & +15 step-functions
Error Range ?
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COCOMO-like estimation models: Effort is a functIon of Size &
+15 step-functions
of unknown quality combined into a single number!
Greater
Error
Ranges
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Kemerer 1987 on COCOMO81
Small scale replication studies - 17 projects
24
Basic Exponential
on Size
Intermediate & 15 cost drivers
Detailed & 4 project
phases
R2
(max=1.0)
0.68
0.60
0.52
MMRE (mean magnitude or relative errors)
610%
583%
607%
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KEMERER 1987
On another Estimation Model:
With complex mathematical formula
Claims of being based on +4,000 projects
….
Still being marketed in 2014
…at a very high cost!
MMRE = 772%
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KEMERER 1987 on Estimation Tool Y
Small scale replication study – 17 projects
MMRE = 772%
With both large + & -
(i.e. cannot be calibrated!) 27
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Larger scale replication study - MMRE
Programming language,
size range [in Function
Points]
(1)
Vendor’s black-box
estimation tool (%)
(2)
White-box models
built directly from
the data (%)
Access [200,800] 341 15
C [200, 800] 1653 50
C++ [70, 500] 97 86
C++ [750, 1250] 95 24
Cobol [60, 400] 400 42
Cobol [401, 3500] 348 51
Cobol II [80, 180] 89 29
Cobol II [180, 500] 109 46
Natural [20, 620] 243 50
Natural [621, 3500] 347 35
Oracle [100, 2000] 319 120
PL1 [80, 450] 274 45
PL1 [550, 2550] 895 21
Powerbuilder [60, 400] 95 29
SQL [280, 800] 136 81
SQL [801, 4500] 127 45
Telon [70, 650] 100 22
Visual Basic [30, 600] 122 54
Min 89 15
Max 1,653 120 28
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Larger scale replication study - MMRE
Programming language,
size range [in Function
Points]
(1)
Vendor’s black-box
estimation tool (%)
(2)
White-box models
built directly from
the data (%)
Access [200,800] 341 15
C [200, 800] 1653 50
C++ [70, 500] 97 86
C++ [750, 1250] 95 24
Cobol [60, 400] 400 42
Cobol [401, 3500] 348 51
Cobol II [80, 180] 89 29
Cobol II [180, 500] 109 46
Natural [20, 620] 243 50
Natural [621, 3500] 347 35
Oracle [100, 2000] 319 120
PL1 [80, 450] 274 45
PL1 [550, 2550] 895 21
Powerbuilder [60, 400] 95 29
SQL [280, 800] 136 81
SQL [801, 4500] 127 45
Telon [70, 650] 100 22
Visual Basic [30, 600] 122 54
Min 89 15
Max 1,653 120 29
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Software Estimation by ‘Experts’
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The bundled models!
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Estimation Outcomes!
32
Quick &
Easy…
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COCOMO-like estimation models
The ‘feel-good’ dead end!
33
Quick &
Easy…
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Criteria for the Quality of the Estimation Models
Academic literature:
R2 (coefficient of determination)
MMRE (mean magnitude of relative errors)
MARE (Median of relative errors), etc…..
Residuals of errors ramdonly distributed
Statistical significance (spearman test).
Etc.
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Criteria for the Quality of the Estimation Models
Academic literature:
Complex criteria for the verification of the outputs of the estimation models
but …
no verification:
- That the models’ assumptions are met!
- Nor of the inputs themselves
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Invalid range
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Invalidity range
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A New Software
Metric to Complement
Function Points
The Software Non-functional
Assessment Process (SNAP)
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Author Very strong relationship of SNAP with Effort
R2 = 0 ,89 (R2 max = 1,0)
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Author’s assertion on Figure 4:
R2 = .89 Significance F = 1.7 * 10-23 Spearman = .85 Runs = pass
&
Spearman test for rank correlation of .85, with an associated confidence of statistical significance of greater than 99% (p-value <.0001).
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Invalidity Range
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Author’s assertion on Figure 4:
R2 = .89 Significance F = 1.7 * 10-23 Spearman = .85 Runs = pass
&
Spearman test for rank correlation of .85, with an associated confidence of statistical significance of greater than 99% (p-value <.0001).
But:
These numbers & stats are invalid the necessary requirements for a regression are not met! (Presence of large outliers = meaningless stats numbers!!)
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What it really looked like
for the range for which
there is enough data
points
Approxmimatively:
An R2 = 0.3
Not R2 = 0.89 (R2 max = 1,0)
CONCLUSION: invalid approach to empirically adopt SNAP!
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Hell is paved all over
with good intentions!
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Invalidity Range
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Project Scope
The dreamer
Accounting
Marketing
The visionnary 53
Stakeholders initial wishes
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Imprecise Inputs at Feasibility Analysis – Much Greater Error Range
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Project Scope
Agreed Project Scope!
The dreamer
Accounting
Marketing
The visionnary 55
Stakeholders initial wishes
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Estimation Models: The Uncertainty Cone: Requirements Specs
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Scales in Plans - Architects & Engineers
57
© Almakadmeh-Abran
2013 © Almakadmeh-Abran
2012
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Scales in Software Documents?
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© Almakadmeh 2013
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Scales in Software Documents?
59
© Almakadmeh 2013
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An investigation of an existing functional size approximation technique: reproducibility
60
Difference of functional size approximation
© Almakadmeh 2013
Participant
code
Approximate functional size
using an approximation technique X
(Min, Most-likely, Max) (in CFP)
Percentage difference in
functional size approximation
(w.r.t. Most-likely value)
A6 (45, 74, 93) − 90%
A12 (57, 114, 179) − 84%
A3 (238, 543, 910) − 23%
A9 (250, 545, 909) − 23%
A5 (299, 592, 962) − 16%
A2 (250, 705, 1250) 0%
A1 (521, 1071, 1616) + 52%
A11 (581, 1185, 1972) + 68%
A8 (697, 1454, 2472) + 106%
A7 (964, 2077, 3450) + 195%
A4 (1181, 2369, 3957) + 236%
A10 (2265, 4510, 7408) + 540%
Minimum − 90%
Maximum + 540%
12
Participants
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An investigation of an existing functional size approximation technique: accuracy
61
Accuracy of the functional size approximation
© Almakadmeh 2013
12
Participants
Participant
code
Approximated functional
size using the E&Q
COSMIC technique in CFP
(min, most-likely, max) (1)
Reference
functional
size for
accuracy
criteria (2)
MRE calculated using
values in (1) and (2)
(min, most-likely, max)
A6 (45, 74, 93)
79 CFP
(43%, 7%, 17%)
A12 (57, 114, 179) (28%, 44%, 126%)
A3 (238, 543, 910) (200%, 585%, 1047%)
A9 (250, 545, 909) (215%, 587%, 1046%)
A5 (299, 592, 962) (277%, 646%, 1113%)
A2 (250, 705, 1250) (215%, 789%, 1476%)
A1 (521, 1071, 1616) (557%, 1251%, 1938%)
A11 (581, 1185, 1972) (633%, 1394%, 2387%)
A8 (697, 1454, 2472) (779%, 1733%, 3017%)
A7 (964, 2077, 3450) (1115%, 2519%, 4250%)
A4 (1181, 2369, 3957) (1389%, 2887%, 4890%)
A10 (2265, 4510, 7408) (2756%, 5587%, 9241%)
Average MRE on functional size approximations
(all 12 participants) (684%, 1502%, 2546%)
Average MRE on functional size approximations
(except participants A6 & A12) (814%, 1798%, 3041%)
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Software Size?
Lines of code
Or
Function Points:
– +30 variations
– & 5 International Standards!
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Lack of universally accepted references & Impact
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FP to LOC convertion ratios in Estimation Models
What happened to Ariane 5 spacecraft … and why?
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Estimation Approaches
The ‘feel-good’ dead end!
66
Quick &
Easy…
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http://www.projectcodemeter.com/cost_estimation/kop3.html
ProjectCodeMeter
Is a professional software tool for project managers to measure and estimate the Time, Cost, Complexity, Quality and Maintainability of software projects as well as Development Team Productivity by analyzing their source code.
Using a modern software sizing algorithm called Weighted Micro Function Points (WMFP) a successor to solid ancestor scientific methods as COCOMO, COSYSMO, Maintainability Index, Cyclomatic Complexity, and Halstead Complexity,
It produces more accurate results than traditional software sizing tools, while being faster and simpler to configure.
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Gold Estimation at the
Renaissance
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Estimation Models in the Renaissance
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Books as
Sources of
Estimation
Models
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