jackie robinson george silk, time & life pictures · 12/31/2010 · jackie robinson george...
TRANSCRIPT
George Silk, Time & Life Pictures JACKIE ROBINSON
JOE CARTER
SPORTS.CA.MSN.COM
National Nikkei Museum and Heritage Centre
National Nikkei Museum and Heritage Centre
Photo: Washington Post
BUNT
GREAT DEFENSE!
RUN
STEAL +
MICHAEL LEWIS
$0.7M
$68.6M
96 WINS
$1.6M
$118.2M
74 WINS
$2.7M
$229.0M
85 WINS
JOHN BOGLE
$100,000 @ 7%/annually / 2% fee
INVESTOR
FEES
$761,226
$1,497,446
$2.945,703
43%
53%
61%
$196,715 $386,968
17% 31%
30yrs 40yrs 50yrs 10yrs 20yrs
WON
51
LOST
111
ALEX RODRIGUEZ
Taylor Glenn Photographs
CASH
CDN STOCKS
SMALL CAP
BONDS EMERGING
U.S.
INT’L STOCKS
DEFAULT
GIC
REAL ESTATE
COMMODITIES
65%
40%
11%
35% 20%
4%
1980 1991 2013
Cash
Publicly -traded Commodities
Natural Resources
Real Estate
Inflation-Indexed Bonds
High Yield
Foreign Bonds
Domestic Bonds
Absolute Return
Private Equity
Emerging Market Equities
Foreign Equities
Domestic Equities
DATA: HARVARD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, INC.
POLICY PORTFOLIO EVOLUTION
3 6 13
DIVERSIFICATION
$1 $5 $9 $15 $44 $115 $160 $341
$550
$1,100
$3,700
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2017E 2020E
GROWTH
Source: Vanguard, Cerulli Associates, Investment Companies Institute, Casey Quirk Analysis
DC AUM 48%
$7.7 trillion
DC AUM 12.5%
$4.4 trillion Targ
et D
ate
Fun
d A
sset
s ($
billi
ons
US
D)
TARGET-DATE FUND ASSETS
Target Date Retirement Fund >55% Equities
Ret
irem
ent
45 Y
ears
40 Y
ears
35 Y
ears
25 Y
ears
20 Y
ears
15 Y
ears
10 Y
ears
5 Y
ears
30 Y
ears
Intl
Equ
ities
F
ixed
Inco
me
Sho
rt T
erm
N
A E
quiti
es
TARGET-DATE FUND
Source: DC Connections, Mercer, January 2012
CASE STUDY
ACTUAL RISK
COMPOSITE GLIDE PATH
51.2%
89.9%
December 31, 1970 – December 31, 2010
TARGET-DATE FUND
TECHNOLOGY/S&P 500
S&P 500 VOLATILITY
1990 2000 2002 Source: PŮR Investing Inc.
3.00%
8.00%
13.00%
18.00%
23.00%
TECHNOLOGY BUBBLE TECHNOLOGY
S&P VOLATILITY 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: PŮR Investing Inc.
CORPORATE BONDS/ U.S. TREASURIES
MARK MCGWIRE
CREDIT CRISIS
S&P VOLATILITY
Hypothetical 10 years to Dec/2012 S&P 500 CONSTANT RISK
Return -1.1% 4.9%
Risk 26.3 15.1
2000 2003 2006 2009
Source: PŮR Investing Inc.
CONSTANT RISK
TED WILLIAMS
BALANCED 60:40
TARGET DATE FUND
DYNAMIC CR
97%
52%
37%
B
WINNING GLIDE PATH
TAR
GE
T C
AP
ITA
L
RISK
C
A
Source: PŮR Investing Inc.
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION PATH (EST)
What
15.6%
10.7%
10.0%
6.6%
5.5%
ALL STOCKS
BALANCED 60/40
TARGET DATE FUNDS
ALL BONDS
DYNAMIC CR
RISK! 5 YEARS BEFORE RETIREMENT
INFORMATION ASSYMETRY
ADVISOR
COST-EFFECTIVE DIVERSIFICATION
LOW FEES
TRANSPARENCY
PROCESS NOT PERFORMANCE
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
Photo: Washington Post
National Nikkei Museum and Heritage Centre