jackson son & co - lri - jun 03, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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Ema i l : i n fo@l i v e r i c e i ndex . c om | Webs i t e : www. l i v e r i c e i ndex. c om | T e l : +44 ( 0 ) 1252 741 403 - © Copy r i gh t 2011 J ac k s on Son & Co . ( London) Ltd .
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Issue Date: 03/06/2011
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We want to encourage you to take an active role in theprice assessment process and help us to ensure thatthe price assessments become increasingly accurateand robust. Have your say. Don’t be left out. You cancall us or email us with the information that you wouldlike us to take into account.
We will continue to develop our list of priceassessments and our methodology, listening carefullyto the participants in the rice industry in order to keepthem relevant to the international rice market. Updateswill be published in our report and on our website.
We hope that this will become a useful and reliableresource for the industry.
IntroductionWelcome to the new “Live Rice Index” Reportproduced by Jackson Son & Co (London) Ltd. Thisreport will be published weekly and will include marketcommentary and our weekly price assessments.
We are also developing a new website that will beavailable soon. We expect it to become a valuableresource for up to date information and historical data,catering to all sectors of the industry from farmers tothe point of sale.
All our price assessments will be determined in linewith the “LRI Methodology” with particular attentionto those that we have chosen to be benchmarks,marked with this symbol: For more information onour benchmarks and assessment principles pleaserefer to our methodology statement available on ournew web site:
www.livericeindex.com
Ema i l : i n fo@l i v e r i c e i ndex . c om | Webs i t e : www. l i v e r i c e i ndex. c om | T e l : +44 ( 0 ) 1252 741 403 - © Copy r i gh t 2011 J ac k s on Son & Co . ( London) Ltd .
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B
Report Date: 03/06/2011
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THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE + / - PRICE
100% Grade B 10 $495
5% Broken 17 $477
10% Broken 13 $468
15% Broken 13 $463
25% Broken 13 $453 A1 Super Broken 5 $410
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE + / - PRICE
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New -20 $945
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old - n/a
Hom Mali White Rice A1 Super 9 $474
Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B 65 $710
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE + / - PRICE
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX 15 $500
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% 15 $490
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 15 $495
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% 15 $485
PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE + / - PRICE
IRRI-6 5% Broken -5 $495
IRRI-6 10% Broken -5 $490
IRRI-6 15% Broken -5 $480
IRRI-6 25% Broken -6 $452
386 2% Broken - n/aBroken Rice - n/a
VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE + / - PRICE
Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New 5 $595
Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old - n/a
PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE + / - PRICE
IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $540
IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 15% Broken STX -10 $530
IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken - n/a
PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE + / - PRICE
385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% -10 $860
D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $825
Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $980
Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -5 $1,015
INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE + / - PRICE
IR 64 5% Broken - n/a
IR 64 25% Broken - n/a
PR 106 5% Broken - n/a
PR 106 25% Broken - n/a
1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken - n/a
INDIA - BASMATI RICE + / - PRICE
Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% 180 $1,410
Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% 30 $1,090Traditional Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 40 $1,090
Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% 35 $1,115
Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% 75 $975
Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 40 $1,090
1121 White Basmati Rice 2% -20 $1,020
1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -20 $1,070
INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE + / - PRICE
IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX - n/a
PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX - n/a
U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE + / - PRICE
U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $520
U.S. #3, 15% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $489
U.S. #5, 20% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $460
U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken 0 $610
U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) 0 $280Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice 0 $330
Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice 0 $300
U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE + / - PRICE
U.S. #1, 4% Broken 0 $865
U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield 0 $550
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE(FOB FCL)
+ / - PRICE
Uruguayan 5% Broken 0 $525
Argentine 5% Broken 0 $520
Brazilian 5% Broken -5 $565
Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens) 0 $415
EGYPT - WHITE RICE + / - PRICE
Medium Grain #2 6% Broken - n/a
Medium Grain #3 12% Broken - n/a
Round Grain #2 6% Broken - n/a
Round Grain #3 12% Broken - n/a
Broken Rice Grade 0 -3 $470
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE(FOB FCL)
+ / - PRICE
Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 0 $500
Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 0 $530
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE + / - PRICE
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken -10 $860
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) -20 $980
White Glutinous Broken Rice A1 5 $755
VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE + / - PRICE
5% Broken 8 $468
10% Broken 8 $460
15% Broken 8 $450
25% Broken 6 $435
Broken Rice 3 $408
Live Rice Index
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B
B
B
B
B
B = INDICATES BENCHMARK
B
B
Report Date: 03/06/2011
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Perhaps the biggest story in Thailand
at the moment is that of the upcoming
elections, due to be held on July 3rd.
The two major parties, the Pheu ThaiParty and the Democrat Party are locking
horns over rice policies in attempts to
win the votes of the largest group in the
electorate; the farmers. The Pheu Thai
Party is proposing that they will re-
introduce a crop-mortgage programme to
support farmers, increasing the payments
made to farmers to 15,000 Baht for
regular paddy and 20,000 Baht for Hom
Mali paddy. Additionally, the Pheu Thai
Party have proposed a credit card scheme
for farmers for purchasing key inputssuch as seeds, fertilisers and farming
equipment. The credit card programme is
similar to the Kisan credit card scheme in
India but, unlike the Indian scheme, Thai
farmers will not be charged interest for
purchases and will be restricted to using
the cards for farm-related purchases.
The Democrat Party aims to maintain the
existing crop insurance programme, with
the aim of increasing farmer’s earnings by
25%. We have put together a table of the
key policies of each party for our reader’s
review.
Local prices have strengthened and
export prices for white rice varieties have
increased. The market has reacted to the
increase in prices with a signicant drop
in enquiries. The farmers will not mind
holding on to their rice for a little longer
given the upcoming elections and the
CURRENCY THB
1 USD $ 30.35
INVERSE 0.033
Export Statistics:
Unocial Thai rice exports from the
16th of May 2011 to the 22nd of May
2011 were 182,380 MTS, excluding
fragrant rice. This represents a
decrease of 12,470 MTS from the
previous week.
Exports of white and parboiled rice
from January 1st until May 22nd 2011
totaled 3,901,194 MTS, which is an
increase of 67.9% from the same
period last year.
Source: Thai Rice Exporters.
Thailand
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Report Date: 03/06/2011
opportunity to earn more money for their
paddy, should there be a change of policy.
As anticipated, prices for Pathumthani
rice have risen sharply as demand picksup.
Pheu Thai Party Rice Policy Democrat Party Rice PolicyReinstate the crop-mortgage programme. Maintain the income guarantee programme, with a plan to
increase farmer’s earnings by 25%.
Introduce credit cards for farmers. Allocate community land deeds for 250,000 farmers growingon state-owned property.
3-year debt moratorium for farmers with less than 500,000Baht debt. Debt restructuring for farmers with debt within
500,000 – 1 million Baht.
Expand the social security system to cover 25 millionfarmers and informal workers.
1 million Baht allocated per village in addition to the existingvillage fund.
Standardise production and distribution chains byestablishing farm economic zones.
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE + / - PRICE
100% Grade B 10 $495
5% Broken 17 $477
10% Broken 13 $46815% Broken 13 $463
25% Broken 13 $453
A1 Super Broken 5 $410
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE + / - PRICE
Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New -20 $945Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old - n/a
Hom Mali White Rice A1 Super 9 $474
Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B 65 $710
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE + / - PRICE
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX 15 $500
Parboiled Milled Rice 100% 15 $490
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 15 $495
Parboiled Milled Rice 5% 15 $485
THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE + / - PRICE
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken -10 $860
White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) -20 $980
White Glutinous Broken Rice A1 5 $755
B
B
B
B
B
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USA
Farmers have taken to the elds in the
mid-south as the rains nally halted al-
lowing for some last-minute planting and
re-planting of crops. More than 3.5 millionacres of farmland have been aected by
the oods, including an estimated 40%
of this year’s rice crop. Of the aected
states, Arkansas and Missouri appear to
have suered the most signicant delays
to planting as recent USDA statistics sug-
gest that, as of May 29th, Arkansas had
planted 93% of their crop and Missouri
had planted 88% of their crop, compared
to their respective 5 year averages of
99% and 97%. Consequently, the delayed
planting means that both these states aresignicantly behind their 5 year averages
for emerged rice. Specically, in Missouri
only 57% of the rice has emerged, where
the 5 year average is 90% and this time
last year, 100% of the state’s rice crop
had emerged. Farmers who either could
not plant or have lost crops due to the
oods are seeking federal funding from
the government for lost revenue.
The market in the South is still quiet with
thin demand for exports but domestic
market prices are stable on account of
steady domestic demand. The outcome
of the latest Iraqi tender is still unclear.
Export Statistics:
The next USDA Export Sales Report is
due for release later today due to the
Memorial Holiday.
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In California, the recent tenders oated
by Korea and Japan were cause for
some excitement but only one cargo of
US medium grain was sold and bids inthe market returned to previous levels of
around US $13 per hundredweight over
loan. Planting in California has gained
momentum and as of May 29th planting is
now ahead of the 5 year average (but still
behind re: emerged rice), 80% of the crop
U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE + / - PRICE
U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $520
U.S. #3, 15% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $489
U.S. #5, 20% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $460
U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken 0 $610
U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) 0 $280
Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice 0 $330
Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice 0 $300
U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE + / - PRICE
U.S. #1, 4% Broken 0 $865
U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield 0 $550
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In Brazil, prices for brokens, and to
a lesser extent parboiled brown rice,
shot up recently as a result of urgent
enquiries from certain parties whowere caught short. Prices for brokens
rocketed up by about US $40 - $50
PMT but this level is by no means
sustainable. The Brazilian government
recently announced their R$ 1 billion
PEP (Premium for Marketing of
Products) campaign and in the auction
on May 26th, of the 133,000 MTS of
paddy that was oered, commitments
were made for only 58% of this volume.
Most of the rice supply from Guyana
is committed to Venezuela as partial
payment for the oil that Guyana receives
under Venezuela’s 2005 PetroCaribe
accord. Peru have been active buyers
in the market and, similarly to Chile, are
expected to almost double their imports
this year.
In Uruguay exporters are struggling to
secure containers for their shipments
with shipping lines reporting that there is
a shortage. Milling time is still available
in Uruguay for parts of July and August.The outcome of the latest Iraqi tender is
still unknown. Although there are reports
suggesting that South American bids
were unsuccessful, we believe that the
nal awards are not yet known.
CURRENCY BRL ARS UYU
1 USD $ 1.576 4.091 18.450
The monsoon has arrived in good time,
reaching southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu
on May 29th. The monsoon brings more
than 70’s of India’s annual rainfall andirrigates around 60% of India’s farms. The
monsoon is expected to advance through
the rest of Kerala and Tamil Nadu into
Karnataka and the south Bay of Bengal
over the coming days before blanketing
the entire country by mid-July.
Early forecasts suggest that the monsoon
may bring 98% of the 50 year average
rainfall, boosting hopes that India will
produce a bumper crop. Rice production
may increase by around 7% this year
to a record level if the monsoon does
provide favourable growing conditions.
Monsoon-sown rice production could
reach 86 million MTS, which may further
encourage the government to remove the
ban on rice exports. There is currently no
proposal to end the ban.
The government’s rice procurement plans
are stuttering throughout the country as
drastic measures are now being taken to
store rice. With storage within the state
at full capacity, administrators in WestGodavari have instructed ocials to make
use of 120 schools and colleges to store
paddy. The schools and colleges are due
to re-open later this month.
India
CURRENCY INR
1 USD $ 44.870
INVERSE 0.0223
South America
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Report Date: 03/06/2011
INDIA - BASMATI RICE + / - PRICE
Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% 180 $1,410
Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% 30 $1,090
Traditional Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 40 $1,090Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% 35 $1,115
Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% 75 $975
Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 40 $1,090
1121 White Basmati Rice 2% -20 $1,020
1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -20 $1,070
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE(FOB FCL)
+ / - PRICE
Uruguayan 5% Broken 0 $525
Argentine 5% Broken 0 $520
Brazilian 5% Broken -5 $565
Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens) 0 $415
S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILEDRICE (FOB FCL)
+ / - PRICE
Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 0 $500
Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 0 $530
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Offering A Grain
Of Truth...
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Report Date: 03/06/2011