jaime malaga, ph.d. center for north american studies
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Jaime Malaga, Ph.D. Center for North American Studies Texas Tech University - Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics. Recent Trends in U.S. Cotton and Sorghum Exports and their Impact on the South. Outline. Cotton Price and Exports Cotton in the South Cotton Trends and Expectations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Jaime Malaga, Ph.D.
Center for North American Studies
Texas Tech University - Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics
Recent Trends in U.S. Cotton and Sorghum Exports and their Impact on the South
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Outline
Cotton Price and Exports
Cotton in the South
Cotton Trends and Expectations
Sorghum Price and Exports
Sorghum in the South
Sorghum Trends and Expectations
General Remarks
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Cotton Price A Index (Monthly)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
'Aug-09 'Oct-09 'Dec-09 'Feb-10 'Apr-10 'Jun-10 'Aug-10 'Oct-10 'Dec-10
Cents/lb
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World Cotton Production and Mill Use
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21
000 bales
ProductionMill Use
Source: CERI
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World Cotton Imports
EU19%
ROW45%
Bangladesh4%
China3%
Indonesia
10%
Pakistan2%
Turkey15%
Vietnam2%
ROW26%
EU2%
Bangladesh10%
China41%
Indonesia5%
Pakistan
4%Turkey
8%
Vietnam4%
2000-01 2010-11
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World Cotton Exports
2000-01 2010-11
Uzbekistan14%
U.S.27%
WAC8%Brazil
1% Australia15%
ROW35%
India13%
ROW17%
Australia
7%
Brazil5%
WAC5%
U.S.43%
Uzbekistan10%
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Cotton China
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21
000 bales
Ending Stocks Production Mill Use Imports
Source: CERI
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Cotton Mexico
Source: CERI
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21
000 bales
Ending Stocks Production Mill Use Imports
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Factors Affecting Cotton MarketsTable 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
- Changes in US cotton production
- India cotton export restrictions
- Pakistan flooding
- China Textile Industry Quick recovery
- Exchange rates
- Depletion of cotton stocks
- Inflation in China
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US Cotton Production by RegionTable 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9
Southeast Mid-South Southwest Other
Southwest (TX)
Mid-South (MS, AR, LA, TN)
Other
Southeast (GA, NC, AL)
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US Cotton Forecast?Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21
000 bales
Production Mill Use Exports
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US Sorghum (Prices) 2006-2010Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
Sorghum PriceGulf Port LA
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US Sorghum Production and Exports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11
000 MT
Production Exports
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World Sorghum Exports 2006-2010Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
US
Argentina
75%
65%
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World Sorghum Imports 2006-2010Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
E.U.
Mexico 41%
Japan
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US Sorghum by RegionTable 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
Southern States
Total US
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Southern Sorghum Production by States (200-2010)
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US Sorghum Production by State (South)Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses
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Factors Affecting Sorghum Export Markets
- US total production and exports declining (long term) Ethanol use increasing
- Most of US exports going to Mexico (Chicken industry)
- Some unexpected demand (EU) may affect flows and prices
- Growing competition from Argentina and Australia
- Potential new markets in Sub Saharan Africa and LA (Colombia, Chile, Ecuador)
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Final Remarks
- Cotton-Record high prices will go down and stabilize next year-US exports 75% of its cotton and exports will continue to grow -Southern States account for 90% of US exports-Relative prices of other commodities will be key variables. -Factors to watch: China mill use, Exchange rates, Energy prices, Indian,
Australian and Brazilian exports, WTO Doha round?
- Sorghum -Erratic prices will tend to stabilize and decline-US exports 40% of its sorghum but exports may decrease-Southern States (mainly TX) account for 40-45% of US production-Factors to watch: Mexican chicken industry, competition from Argentina and
Australia, New emerging markets, ethanol industry demand.
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