jan 29/06 10:00amgeog 152b1 disasters (quarantelli, in cutter (1994): ch 2) disasters (quarantelli,...
TRANSCRIPT
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 1
DisastersDisasters((Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2 ))
• short history of disaster research• defining disasters• disasters worldwide• disaster trends• explaining disaster trends• two schools of thought on
disaster trends
Geography 106bGeography 106bHazardsHazards
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 2
Short History of Disaster Research
• funded by military in USA• military interested: disaster recovery,
specifically psychological stress - individuals and social organization under stress
• emphasis on large-scale, sudden, rare “civilian” disasters – akin to warfare bombing
• emphasis on how to establish command and control structures post-disaster
• little on emergency preparedness
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 3
Defining DisastersDefining Disasters
Question:• Why do you suppose the definition of
a “disaster” is so critical that an entire book has been devoted to the topic? (Quarantelli, E.(1998) What is a Disaster?)
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 4
Defining DisastersDefining Disasters
Database Problems• disasters co-occur e.g., cyclones and
floods; landslides and earthquakes• mortality difficult to count e.g.,
primary effect vs secondary effects (famine, epidemics in refugee camps)
• lack of census taking generally in LDCs
• what gets counted? – thresholds reasonable?
Implication• worst case e.g., up to twofold
difference in reporting for same area same time period (Mitchell, 1989)
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 6
CRED and EM-DAT
• major international disaster data centre
• more inclusive CRED event-threshold criteria– 10 or more deaths per event– at least 100 persons affected– drought or famine – 2000 persons
affected– OR government disaster declaration– OR plea for international assistance
• industrial(technological) disasters always use more inclusive since impacts typically much lower – 5 or more deaths per event
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 7
Defining DisastersDefining Disasters
Absolute vs Relative Statistics• data often presented in absolute terms
– numbers dead, $billions lost• impact of losses felt differently one
place to next• e.g., 10 fishers lost in remote village
of 200 vs 10 factory workers in city of 200,000
• place disasters in community/regional context
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 8
Media and Disasters
media concentration on• human interest• visual impact• events close to home• prioritized according to “western
perspective”
- Adams (1986) death of one Westerner =
3 East Europeans
9 Latin Americans
11 Middle Easterners
12 Asians
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 9
Type of Disaster and Type of Impact
• impacts vary by disaster type• e.g., earthquakes tend to include
more deaths• e.g., floods = more affected -
homelessness
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 10
Exercise:Identifying Disasters
• Break into groups of four and discuss:
• Which of the following should qualify as a “disaster”– 1998 East Canada ice storm
– Walkerton tainted water
– 2003 Canada/US blackout
– Love Canal toxic waste
– Three Mile Island nuclear power plant
• if you do not know details, speculate
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 12
Disasters Increasing?
• yes• not just improvement in reporting• improvement in reporting likely
overestimate the magnitude of increase
• e.g., 80s & 90s each four times more events than 50s
• rank order of disaster frequency relatively stable
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 14
Disaster DataBeware High Magnitude Events
• single high impact events can overwhelm trend data (e.g., Bangladesh cyclone; Tangshan earthquake)
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 15
Disasters Over Time
Go see up-to-date trend data from EM-DAT here: EMDAT - The International Emergency Disasters Database
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 17
LDCs Greatest Impacts
• whether measured in absolute terms (e.g., deaths) or relative terms (e.g, deaths per 100,000) – LDCs do worse
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 22
Disaster Impact Trends
• most impacts have increased over time– property damage– persons affected– deaths (adjust for major epidemics)
• but not in equal proportions– deaths increased twofold increase
– economic damages fourfold increase
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 25
Disaster Impact Trends
• in many of the MDCs inverse relationship between economic losses and fatalities from disasters over time
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 26
Explanation of Growing Impacts
Questions• What explains the patterns of
increasing disaster impacts?• What explains the differences between
MDCs and LDCs?• Describe a scenario of impacts in an
LCD from a natural disaster.
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 27
Explanation of Growing Impacts
Scenario:• Indian farmer, farms land on fertile
coastal plain• subsistence agriculture – e.g. root
crops• cyclone hits and devastates crop due to
flooding• remainder of year, engages in
environmentally threatening wood-cutting
• accepts aid, but encouraged to grow cash crop – e.g., spices – by aid donor
• crop/way of life changes, but not vulnerability (which may have actually increased due to wood cutting)
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 28
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
population growth• 6.4 billion, growing steeply• 90% growth in developing world• safe drinking water, food shelter low
even in non-disaster times• pressure large families still
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land pressure• approx. 1 billion live on severely degraded
land• poverty/unequal access to arable land =
unsustainable farming practices• soil erosion, deforestation, over-cultivation• e.g., clearing of coastal mangrove forests
for plantation monoculture (fish farming)• monoculture – loss of biodiversity (natural
protection against hazards)
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 30
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
urbanization• globalization = rural → urban flight• squatter settlements (in LDCs)
growing faster than LDCs
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 31
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
inequality• gap between rich and poor growing!• 20% of world population controls
approx. 80% of wealth
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 32
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
climate change• flooding and coastal areas• potential increased disease• felt most in areas already under stress
i.e. (LDC’s)
political change• less government involvement• more privatization (free-market ideals)• less development aid (pre-Tsunami)
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 33
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
economic growth and technological innovation
• accumulation of wealth in MDCs especially = more at risk
• growth in technological “threat”, e.g., about 700 new chemicals produced annually
Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 34
Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts
social expectations (pressure)• people expect technology to work
irrespective of, e.g., weather conditions
• e.g., fly in severe weather
global interdependence• LDCs incorporated, but produce
mainly primary commodities• primary commodity prices dropped• LDC high foreign debt