jan husdal instr 2004
TRANSCRIPT
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Objective Why (and how) should we apply
vulnerability (and reliability) in cost-benefit evaluations or projectevaluations in general?
3 fields are brought together: engineering (reliability and vulnerability) economics (costs and benefits) politics (decision- making)
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Contentions Additional travel costs incur when
persons, travellers or goods do notreach their destination in space ortime as intended.
Reliability Benefit
Vulnerability... Cost
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Rationale To add reliability and vulnerability to the
traditional equations of costs and benefits. So that transport planners and
professionals not only consider economicalarguments, but also dare to take onpolitical statements.
To allow these statements to be inopposition to the factual costs and benefitsof a project (as prescribed by currentevaluation methods).
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Vulnerability vs. Reliability Reliability
Probability Predictability Maintaining a link (or a system)
Vulnerability
Susceptibility Impact (system-wide) Disrupting a link
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Vulnerability vs. Reliability A reliable network:
Exhibits a high degree of operability(serviceability, accessibility, non-variability)under any circumstance
A vulnerable network: Exhibits a low degree of operability under
certain (usually external) circumstances
Vulnerability = Non-Reliability(under said circumstances)
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Vulnerability vs. Risk R = P x C
R = Risk P = Probability C = Consequence
V = S x I V = Vulnerability S = Susceptibility to
operational degradation, I = Impact (cost) of
degradationVulnerability matrix.
The threshold indicates thevulnerability acceptance level
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Attributes of vulnerability
Road networks are vulnerable to 3 influences: structure-related,nature-related and traffic-related. It is the collective sum of thesevulnerabilities that needs to be addressed.
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The cost of vulnerability
The societal costs of vulnerability versus reliability. A - current state, B high investment
(new road), C low investment (upgrading existing road), D - optimum
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Future research Establish a practice-oriented methodology
for aggregating a vulnerability index for aroad network, pertaining to attributes ofstructure, nature and traffic.
Integrate vulnerability into the quantitativeand qualitative framework of cost-benefitanalyses used in the transport sector.
Apply vulnerability as a decision variable inthe evaluation process for new roaddevelopments.
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The service area of the hospitals in Molde and Kristiansund, onthe north-western coast of Norway, is marked by a number ofpotential vulnerabilities: F=Ferry, CW=Causeway, ST= SubseaTunnel, T=Tunnel, M=Mountain Pass, B=Bridge
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Current research in Norway The transport sector in
general has very limited
experience with regard torisk based management
Cost-benefit analyses andenvironmental impact
analyses are being used, butrisk analyses and riskacceptance criteria are not.
Risk as a concept and as amanagement tool has nomarked tradition among theNorwegian road authoritiesor amongst the internationalroad authorities
(Aven, 2004)
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Thank you