january 2017 - d3rp5jatom3eyn.cloudfront.net · in january 2017 the index for goods and services...

1Namibia Consumer Price Index - January 2017

Namibia Statistics AgencyP.O. Box 2133, FGI House, Post Street Mall,Windhoek, Namibia

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Email: [email protected]

Namibia Consumer Price Index

January 2017

N C P I

2 Namibia Consumer Price Index - January 2017

Mission Statement

“In a coordinated manner produce and disseminate relevant, quality and timely statistics that are fit-for-

purpose in accordance with international standards and best practice”

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“Be a high performance institution in statistics delivery”

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Contents

Summary 4

Overall Inflation 5

Main drivers of Inflation 6

Box 1: NCPI Basket Weights 7

Major groups 8

Minor groups 10

Box 2: Chart of the Month 11

Goods and Services Inflation 12

Table 1: NCPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100) 13

Table 2: NCPI for January 2017 by main groups and sub-groups (Dec.2012=100) 14 - 16


Summary

The year 2017 opened with the annual inflation rate of

8.2 percent, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points higher

than the 5.3 percent registered in January a year earlier.

This increase was mainly attributed to price increases

registered in the categories of Food and non - alcoholic

beverages (13.2 percent), Hotels, restaurants and

cafes (9.8 percent), Furnishing, household equipment

and routine maintenance of the house (9.5 percent),

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (9.3

percent), Education (8.2 percent) and Communications

(6.2 percent).

On a monthly basis, the price levels increased to 3.2

percent from 0.2 percent recorded last month. This

is the highest monthly inflation rate recorded for the

last 14 years. This increase emanated from monthly

increases registered in all the groups comprising

the Namibia CPI with the exception of Clothing and

footwear, Communications and Recreation and Culture

which declined to -0.4, -0.2 and -0.8 percent in January

2017 from 0.0, -0.1 and 0.4 percent in December 2016

respectively.

Alex ShimuafeniStatistician-General

Annual and monthly inflation increasedAnnual inflation rate for January 2017 increased from 5.3 percent to 8.2 percent and on monthly basis, it went up to 3.2 percent from 0.2 percent.

“On a monthly basis, the price levels increased to 3.2 percent from 0.2 percent recorded last month. This is the highest monthly inflation rate recorded

for the last 14 years.”


Overall Inflation

The All Items Index for January 2017 stood at 126.1 an increase of 9.6 percantage points over the January 2016 index of 116.5.

During the period between January 2016 and January 2017 the annual inflation fluctuated between 8.2 percent and 5.3 percent

see (Chart 1). The highest annual inflation rate recorded during this period was 8.2 recorded in January 2017 and the lowest of 5.3

percent registered in January 2016.

Chart 1: NCPI; Monthly and annual percentage changes; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Main drivers of Inflation

Miscellaneous

Hotel & Restaurants

Education

Recreation & Culture

Communications

Transport

Health

Furnishings etc.

Housing, Water, Electricity

Clothing

Alchohol & Tobbacco

Food etc.

-0.5%

9.3%

5.8%

13.2%

9.5%

5.6%

5.2%

6.2%

4.2%

8.2%

9.8%

7.2%

Chart 2: NCPI; Junuary 2017 annual percentage changes by all groups; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)

During January 2017 prices of Food and non - alcoholic beverages (13.2 percent), Hotels, cafes and restaurants (9.8 percent), Furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house (9.5 percent), Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (9.3 percent), Education (8.2 percent) and Communications (6.2 percent) accelerated much more faster than all other components comprising the Namibia CPI.


Box 1: NCPI Basket WeightsInflation is calculated based on a basket of goods and services, containing a representative sample of the goods and or services commonly consumed in a country, and weighted in accordance with the relative percentage of expenditure allotted to each of the said goods at household level. The price of these goods and services are then tracked over time, to illustrate the change in the cost of living over time. As spending patterns change, new products and services are added to the basket, and the basket reweighted so as to better capture the current spending patterns of the consumer at the current point in time.

As such, the inflation basket is generally reconstituted every five years. In Namibia, the basket was last rebased in 2013, using household expenditure data collected in the 2009/10 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. The basket now contains over 350 items, grouped into 12 categories and 55 sub-categories, for which prices are collected on a monthly basis from more than 900 retail outlets.

Namibian inflation however, is largely determined by three categories of the overall NCPI basket, namely: (i) Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, (ii) Food and non-alcoholic beverages and (iii) Transport, which cumulatively make up just under 60 percent of the total inflation basket. Additionally, following the rebasing of the NCPI basket in 2013, “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco” make up an additional 12.6 percent of the basket, meaning that the four largest categories represent well over 70 percent of the total basket. As such, a large increase in inflation in these categories has a greater impact on the overall inflation than do increases in the lower weighted categories. Thus, it is rare to see major increases in overall inflation attributed to the lower weighted categories, despite the fact that these categories may have seen relatively high inflation in their own right.

28.36%

16.45%

14.28%

12.59%

5.47%

5.39%

3.81%

3.65%

3.55%

3.05%

2.01%

1.39%

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco

Furnishings, Household Equipment

Miscellaneous Goods and Services

Communication

Education

Recreation and Culture

Clothing and Footwear

Health

Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants

Transport


Major groups

13.2%The Food and non-alcoholic beverages Index increased to 137.4 in January 2017 up from 121.3 obtained during the same period of the preceding year. The annual inflation rate for this category stood at 13.2 percent in January 2017 as compared to 6.1 percent registered during the same period last year, resulting in an increase of 7.1 percentage points. The significant increase in this group emanated from annual price increases recorded in all the sub-groups comprising the Food and non-alcoholic beverages component with the exception of Vegetables including potatoes and other tubers which slowed down from 13.3 percent recorded in January 2016 to 8.3 percent in January 2017.

The monthly inflation rate for this category increased to 1.6 percent from 0.6 percent recorded a month earlier.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

5.8%The annual inflation rate for Alcoholic beverages and tobacco stood at 5.8 percent in January 2017 showing a decrease of 1.7 percentage points when compared to 7.5 percent recorded during the same period a year earlier. The downward trend of inflation in this category, resulted from the declines in the price levels of both sub-components of the group namely Alcoholic beverages and Tobacco which slowed to 6.9 and 1.3 percent from 7.5 and 7.4 percent recorded in January 2016.

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

Chart 3: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for selected food sub-categories; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)

Chart 4: NCPI; Annual inflation rate for Alcohol beverages and Tobacco; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Major groups

5.2%The annual inflation rate for this group stood at 5.2 percent in January 2017, representing an increase of 4.3 percentage points over the January 2016 rate which was estimated at 0.9 percent. This increase was mainly due to increases witnessed in the price levels of Purchase of vehicles and Operation of personal transport equipment which increased from 6.0 and -0.7 percent in January 2016 to 10.1 and 5.2 percent in January 2017 respectively.

Transport

9.3%The Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel Index for January 2017 stood at 126.7 up from 115.9 registered in January 2016. The annual inflation rate for this group stood at 9.3 percent in January 2017 as compared to 7.6 percent recorded during the same period a year earlier.

The increase in this group emanated from annual price increases recorded in all the sub-groups comprising theHousing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels component except for the electricity, gas and other fuels which slowed down to 6.7 percent from 8.7 percent recorded in January of the preceding year.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

Chart 5: NCPI; Annual inflation rate for Transport; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)

Chart 6: NCPI; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Minor groups For the minor groups, high annual inflation rates were observed in the groups of Hotels, cafés and restaurants (9.8 percent), Furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house (9.5 percent), Education (8.2 percent), Miscellaneous goods and services (7.2 percent), Communication (6.2 percent), Health (5.6 percent), Recreation and culture (4.2 percent), while Clothing and footwear registered the lowest annual inflation rate of -0.5 percent.

Chart 7: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for Minor groups; January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Box 2: Chart of the Month The annual inflation rate for Communications rose to 6.2 percent in January 2017 compared to -1.0 percent registered during the same period last year, resulting in a 7.2 percentage points increase. The increase in the group resulted from a rise in the level of prices of communication equipment and telecommunications charges.

Chart 8: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for Communication January 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Goods and Services InflationIn January 2017 the Index for Goods and Services stood at 127.3 and 124.5 respectively as compared to the corresponding indices of 117.7 and 115.0 recorded during the same period last year.

The monthly and annual inflation rates for Goods were 0.8 and 8.1 percent while those for Services stood at 6.6 and 8.3 percent. Corresponding rates recorded during the same period in the previous year stood at 0.5 and 4.8 percent for Goods and 4.9 and 6.1 percent for Services respectively.


Table 1: NCPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100)

Period Index m-o-m y-o-y

Jan-14 105,9 0,9 4,9

Feb-14 106,6 0,7 5,2

Mar-14 107,3 0,6 5,2

Apr-14 108,3 1,0 5,9

May-14 108,6 0,3 6,1

Jun-14 108,9 0,3 6,1

Jul-14 109,1 0,2 5,6

Aug-14 109,4 0,3 5,4

Sep-14 109,6 0,2 5,3

Oct-14 109,7 0,1 5,0

Nov-14 109,9 0,2 5,0

Dec-14 109,8 -0,2 4,6

An. Av 108,6 0,4 5,4

Jan-15 110,6 0,8 4,5

Feb-15 110,4 -0,2 3,6

Mar-15 110,9 0,4 3,4

Apr-15 111,5 0,5 2,9

May-15 111,9 0,4 3,0

Jun-15 112,3 0,3 3,0

Jul-15 112,7 0,4 3,3

Aug-15 113,1 0,3 3,4

Sep-15 113,2 0,1 3,3

Oct-15 113,4 0,2 3,4

Nov-15 113,6 0,2 3,3

Dec-15 113,8 0,2 3,7

An. Av 112,3 0,3 3,4

Jan-16 116,5 2,4 5,3

Feb-16 117,2 0,6 6,1

Mar-16 118,1 0,8 6,5

Apr-16 118,8 0,6 6,6

May-16 119,4 0,5 6,7

Jun-16 119,8 0,3 6,7

Jul-16 120,6 0,6 7,0

Aug-16 120,8 0,2 6,8

Sep-16 121,0 0,2 6,9

Oct-16 121,6 0,5 7,3

Nov-16 121,9 0,2 7,3

Dec-16 122,1 0,2 7,3

An. Av 119,8 0,6 6,7 Jan-17 126,1 3,2 8,2


Table 2: NCPI for January 2017 by main groups and sub-groups (Dec.2012=100)

Weights CPI Inflation Rate

Jan-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 m-o-m y-o-y

ALL ITEMS 100,00 116,5 122,1 126,1 3,2 8,2

GOODS 57.7 117.7 126.2 127.3 0.8 8.1

SERVICES 42.3 115.0 116.8 124.5 6.6 8.3

FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 16.45 121.3 135.2 137.4 1.6 13.2

Food 14.78 122.1 136.5 138.7 1.6 13.5

Bread and cereals 4.84 117.4 134.0 135.5 1.1 15.4

Meat 3.53 124.5 134.4 137.4 2.2 10.3

Fish 0.81 113.2 140.7 139.6 -0.8 23.3

Milk, cheese and eggs 1.17 128.5 138.5 140.0 1.1 9.0

Oils and fats 0.78 117.9 131.7 132.0 0.2 11.9

Fruit 0.33 133.1 148.8 154.1 3.6 15.8

Vegetables including potatoes and other tubers 1.23 134.3 141.6 145.5 2.7 8.3

Sugar, jam, honey, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

1.44 122.8 143.4 147.0 2.5 19.7

Food products n.e.c. 0.65 119.3 132.2 134.5 1.8 12.8

Non-alcoholic beverages 1.66 113.8 123.2 125.7 2.0 10.4

Coffee, tea and cocoa 0.31 122.6 149.9 149.2 -0.4 21.7

Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 1.35 111.8 117.1 120.3 2.7 7.6

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO 12.59 125.4 131.9 132.6 0.5 5.8

Alcoholic beverages 9.99 126.3 134.4 135.0 0.5 6.9

Tobacco 2.61 121.8 122.5 123.3 0.7 1.3

CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 3.05 108.1 108.0 107.6 -0.4 -0.5

Clothing 2.04 109.2 110.9 110.5 -0.4 1.2

Clothing materials 0.07 115.3 136.3 136.5 0.1 18.3

Ready-made clothing 1.93 108.9 109.9 109.5 -0.4 0.5

Men's clothing 0.58 112.7 114.1 112.1 -1.8 -0.5

Women's clothing 0.70 103.1 97.9 97.8 -0.1 -5.1

Children's clothing 0.66 111.6 117.6 118.2 0.5 5.9

Boys' clothing 0.24 114.6 106.2 106.6 0.3 -7.0

Girls' clothing 0.33 112.8 128.9 129.7 0.6 14.9

Infants' clothing 0.09 99.6 108.6 108.8 0.2 9.3

Other articles of clothing and clothing accessories 0.05 113.8 117.3 117.0 -0.3 2.8

Dry cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 0.00 109.8 122.3 123.9 1.3 12.9





Footwear 1.01 105.8 102.0 101.6 -0.4 -4.0

Adult footwear 0.80 103.7 98.7 97.6 -1.1 -5.9

Children's footwear 0.20 113.7 113.7 116.3 2.3 2.3

Repair of footwear 0.01 114.4 125.6 125.6 0.0 9.8

HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS 28.36 115.9 117.7 126.7 7.6 9.3

Rental payments for dwelling (both owners and renters)

23.28 112.7 112.7 123.6 9.7 9.7

Regular maintenance and repair of dwelling 0.19 119.2 126.8 127.5 0.5 7.0

Water supply, sewerage service and refuse collection

1.03 137.0 154.0 154.0 0.0 12.4

Electricity gas and other fuels 3.86 129.4 138.0 138.1 0.1 6.7

FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE 5.47 113.6 121.4 124.4 2.5 9.5

Furniture, furnishings, decorations, carpets, floor coverings, incl. repairs

1.78 103.2 109.1 109.8 0.7 6.5

Furniture and furnishings 1.69 102.2 108.4 109.1 0.6 6.7

Carpets and other floor coverings 0.07 116.4 117.1 118.7 1.4 2.0

Repair of furnishings and floor coverings 0.02 143.0 150.0 150.0 0.0 4.9

Household textiles 0.73 118.2 127.1 127.0 -0.1 7.4

Heating and cooking appliances, refrigerators, washing machines and similar major household appliances, etc

0.92 118.4 126.4 126.6 0.1 6.9

Glassware, tableware and household utensils 0.22 124.8 142.5 142.7 0.2 14.4

Tools and equipment for house and garden 0.43 112.3 122.2 122.3 0.1 8.9

Goods and services for routine household maintenance

1.36 119.9 127.1 138.1 8.7 15.2

HEALTH 2.01 117.0 119.9 123.6 3.1 5.6

Medical products, appliances and equipment 0.84 111.2 117.8 117.7 -0.1 5.8

Outpatient Services, medical, dental and paramedical

0.98 125.2 125.5 133.2 6.1 6.3

Hospital services 0.19 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0





TRANSPORT 14.28 109.4 114.0 115.1 1.0 5.2

Purchase of vehicles 2.88 123.9 135.5 136.3 0.6 10.1

Operation of personal transport equipment 8.96 103.5 107.2 108.8 1.6 5.2

Public transportation services 2.44 114.2 113.6 113.4 -0.2 -0.7

COMMUNICATIONS 3.81 100.7 107.1 106.9 -0.2 6.2

RECREATION AND CULTURE 3.55 116.4 122.4 121.4 -0.8 4.2Audio-visual, photographic and data processing equip. incl. repairs

1.16 110.7 114.3 113.2 -1.0 2.3

Other major durables for recreation and culture

0.08 125.8 133.1 132.8 -0.2 5.5

Other recreational items and equipment; flowers, gardens and pets

0.46 116.5 121.4 121.5 0.1 4.3

Recreation and cultural services 0.85 117.9 124.7 124.8 0.1 5.9

Newspapers, books and stationery 0.89 111.7 124.9 122.7 -1.8 9.8

Package holidays 0.11 194.3 163.7 159.9 -2.3 -17.7

EDUCATION 3.65 125.6 126.2 135.9 7.7 8.2

Pre-primary education (ages 2 to 6 years) 0.23 147.6 147.6 157.3 6.6 6.6

Primary (private) and Secondary education (ages 7 to 17 years)

1.44 124.1 124.7 139.6 11.9 12.5

Tertiary education 1.98 124.1 124.7 130.6 4.8 5.3

HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 1.39 120.8 129.9 132.7 2.2 9.8

Catering 0.74 120.4 127.8 128.1 0.2 6.4

Accommodation services 0.65 121.3 132.4 138.1 4.3 13.8

MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES 5.39 114.9 119.4 123.2 3.1 7.2

Personal care 1.41 113.4 122.4 123.4 0.8 8.8Personal effects n.e.c. 1.03 117.1 123.8 122.9 -0.8 5.0Insurance 0.74 108.6 110.7 110.5 -0.1 1.8

Financial services n.e.c. 0.94 123.2 123.2 145.5 18.0 18.0

Other services n.e.c. 1.26 112.2 114.9 114.2 -0.7 1.7


Namibia Consumer Price Index

January 2016

N C P I

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