MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 1

March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Highlights

Manitoba's total population was estimated at 1,360,396 residents as of January 1, 2019, up 3,560 individuals from the October 1, 2018 estimate. Population growth continues on a twelve-month basis, with Manitoba’s increase since January 1, 2018 estimated at 16,011 people, or 1.19%. Although a net outflow of interprovincial migrants has a negative impact on Manitoba's growth, high immigration levels more than offset the loss.

Population Growth, Canada and Provinces

Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01

0.26

0.19

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

AB MB ON SK CA QC BC NS PE NB NL

Change (%) Oct 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019

1.191.44

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

PE ON AB CA BC MB NS QC SK NB NL

Change (%) Jan 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019

Per '000 Population?

A rate per thousand population is calculated by dividing the number of events for a time period by the population at the mid-point of the period, then multiplying by 1,000. These crude rates allow for quick comparisons among characteristics or jurisdictions.

In this document, the mid-point population is the average of population estimates for the start and end of the quarter.

Manitoba Quarterly Population and Demographic Estimates

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and

17-10-0059-01

Demographic Component

Estimate

(Persons)

Per '000

Population

Start Population (Oct 1, 2018) 1,356,836

Natural Increase (Net) 1,347 0.99

Births 4,292 3.16

Deaths 2,945 2.17

Total Net Migration 2,213 1.63

Net Interprovincial -1,948 -1.43

In 1,990 1.46

Out 3,938 2.90

Net International 2,999 2.21Immigration 3,417 2.52

Emigration 418 0.31

Other International 1,162 0.86

Net Non-permanent Residents 1,061 0.78Returning Emigrants 188 0.14

Net Temporary Emigrants 87 0.06End Population (Jan 1, 2019) 1,360,396

Statistics Canada's documentation: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3601

Next Release: June 19, 2019.

Quarterly Demographic Estimates

J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9

MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 2

March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Population Growth

Quarterly growth Over the three months ending January 2019, Manitoba's population increased by an estimated 3,560 people. Our quarterly growth rate of 0.26% was stronger than Canada's 0.19%, and second among provinces.

Twelve-month growth Manitoba's population increased by an estimated 16,011 people between January 2018 and January 2019. The province's twelve-month growth rate of 1.19% was weaker than Canada's 1.44%, and fifth among provinces.

Population Estimates - Manitoba and Canada

Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01

Manitoba Canada

Estimate (Persons)

Jan 1, 2018 1,344,385 36,786,021

Oct 1, 2018 1,356,836 37,242,571

Jan 1, 2019 1,360,396 37,314,442

Change (Persons)

Jan 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 16,011 528,421

Oct 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 3,560 71,871

Change (%)

Jan 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 1.19 1.44Oct 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 0.26 0.19

Twelve-month Growth, Component Contributions

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2018201520122009200620032000

Persons (000's) Jan 1 to Dec 31 Residual

Other InternationalMigration

Net InternationalMigration

Net InterprovincialMigration

Natural Increase

Population Growth

Other International Migration?

Other International migration groups together the temporary international migration flows and is comprised of the net change in Non-permanent Residents, plus Returning Emigrants, less Net Temporary Emigrants.

Non-permanent Residents?

The majority of Non-permanent Residents are students and temporary workers, while the remainder are refugee status claimants and non-Canadian born dependents of refugee claimants or permit holders.

Residual?

Residual deviation is obtained by distributing the error of closure linearly throughout the intercensal period.

The error of closure is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the most recent Census counts (adjusted for Census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated indian reserves).

A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population. A negative residual would then be required to correct the overestimation.

Population Estimate?

Estimates are derived from Census counts, but are adjusted for net Census undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and demographic growth.

MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 3

March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Components of Growth

Natural Increase During the fourth quarter of 2018, Manitoba recorded a gain of 1,347 people due to natural increase (births minus deaths). Over the twelve months ending December 31, 2018, our natural increase was 6,377 people, 1.16% higher than the twelve months prior.

Total Net Migration Combining all the migration components together, Manitoba had a total net inflow of 2,213 migrants during the fourth quarter of 2018. Our quarterly rate of 1.63 migrants per thousand population ranked third among provinces. Manitoba's twelve-month total net inflow was 9,634 migrants, 29.30% less than the previous twelve months.

Net International Migration During the fourth quarter of 2018, Manitoba gained 2,999 residents through net international migration (immigrants minus emigrants). Our quarterly inflow of 3,417 immigrants resulted in a rate of 2.52 immigrants per thousand population, above Canada's rate of 1.91. During the twelve months ending December 31, 2018, Manitoba welcomed 15,221 immigrants, 3.50% more than the twelve months prior.

Other International Migration Manitoba experienced a net gain of 1,162 other international migrants during the fourth quarter of 2018, resulting in a rate of 0.86 migrants per thousand population. Our net increase of 6,154 migrants between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018 was 14.23% lower than during the preceding twelve months.

Net Interprovincial Migration Manitoba had a net interprovincial outflow of 1,948 migrants during the fourth quarter of 2018. Our quarterly rate of -1.43 migrants per thousand population ranked ninth among provinces. The province's twelve-month net interprovincial outflow was 9,918 migrants, compared to the net outflow of 6,455 migrants for the previous twelve months.

Quarterly Net Interprovincial Migration Rate

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0020-01

-1.43

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

NS AB ON BC QC NB PE SK MB NL

Rate (per 1,000 population) Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)

Quarterly Immigration Rate

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0040-01

2.52

1.91

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

PE MB SK ON AB BC CA NS QC NB NL

Rate (per 1,000 population) Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)

Quarterly Total Net Migration Rate

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01,

17-10-0023-01 and 17-10-0040-01

1.63

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

AB ON MB NS SK QC BC NB PE NL

Rate (per 1,000 population) Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)

MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 4

March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Manitoba Net Interprovincial Migration - Gains and Losses

Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0045-01

-1,200

-800

-400

0

400

NL PE NS NB QC ON SK AB BC YT NT NU

Persons Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)

Q4-2018 Q4-2017

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

BC NB NL PE NT NU YT QC NS SK AB ON

Change (persons) 2018 Minus 2017 (Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Q4-2018 Q4-2017

Q1-2018

to Q4-2018

Q1-2017

to Q4-2017

(1) (2) (3) (4)

NL 34 -6 40 ↑ 8 -2 10 ↑

PE 6 5 1 ↑ -8 7 -15 ↓

NS -53 -27 -26 ↓ -272 -91 -181 ↓

NB 5 -19 24 ↑ 1 -39 40 ↑

QC -39 -1 -38 ↓ -330 -192 -138 ↓

ON -879 -678 -201 ↓ -4,214 -2,478 -1,736 ↓

SK -187 2 -189 ↓ -511 205 -716 ↓

AB -781 -581 -200 ↓ -2,497 -1,620 -877 ↓BC -46 -407 361 ↑ -1,934 -2,246 312 ↑

YT -2 0 -2 ↓ -83 8 -91 ↓

NT -13 8 -21 ↓ -46 -22 -24 ↓

NU 7 -4 11 ↑ -32 15 -47 ↓TOTAL -1,948 -1,708 -240 ↓ -9,918 -6,455 -3,463 ↓

Change Change

(1)-(2) (3)-(4)

Gains and Losses: Quarterly During the fourth quarter of 2018, Manitoba had net migration gains from four jurisdictions. The largest net interprovincial inflow was from Newfoundland, while the largest outflow was to Ontario.

Compared to the same quarter twelve months ago, Manitoba's net interchange has improved with five jurisdictions.

Twelve-month Over the twelve months ending December 31, 2018, Manitoba had net migration gains from two jurisdictions. The largest net interprovincial migration inflow was from Newfoundland, while the largest outflow was to Ontario.

Compared to the previous twelve month period, Manitoba's net interchange has improved with three jurisdictions.

Gains and Losses?

Manitoba is considered to have a net gain when the number of people moving in from a given province or territory is greater than the number moving out, otherwise the net interchange is considered to be a loss.

Example: Say 28 people moved from Manitoba to Ontario and, over the same time period, 10 people moved from Ontario to Manitoba. Our resulting net interchange with Ontario would be a loss of 18 people.

Contact: Tara Newton Tara.Newton@gov.mb.ca

MBS intranet website: http://intranet.mbgov.ca/finance/mbs/Pages/default.aspx

MBS public website: http://www.gov.mb.ca/mbs/

MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 5

March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Manitoba Net Migration - Gains and Losses

Current Quarter

Current Twelve-month period

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0045-01

-5,000 0 5,000

InflowOutflowTotal Net Movement

39

879

187

78146

October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018

Total Net Movement: 2,213

Net International: 2,999

Other International:(Net Non-permanent Residents,Returning Emigrants &Net Temporary Emigrants)

1,162

Atlantic8

Territories8

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000

InflowOutflowTotal Net Movement

330

4,214

511

2,4971,934

January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018

Total Net Movement: 9,634

Net International: 13,398

Other International:(Net Non-permanent Residents,Returning Emigrants &Net Temporary Emigrants)

6,154

Atlantic271

Territories161

MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 6

March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Manitoba Population and Demographic Estimates - 12-month (Persons)

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01

Jan 1 to

Dec 31

Start

Population

Natural

Increase

Net

Interprovincial

Net

International

Other

International Total Net

Component

Growth Residual

Population

Growth

End

Population

1999 1,138,946 4,455 -2,387 2,074 1,133 820 5,275 207 5,482 1,144,428

2000 1,144,428 4,198 -4,188 2,999 812 -377 3,821 207 4,028 1,148,456

2001 1,148,456 4,268 -4,633 2,946 967 -720 3,548 833 4,381 1,152,837

2002 1,152,837 4,039 -4,120 3,204 1,213 297 4,336 1,196 5,532 1,158,369

2003 1,158,369 4,073 -2,189 4,860 1,347 4,018 8,091 1,196 9,287 1,167,656

2004 1,167,656 3,908 -3,823 6,011 1,099 3,287 7,195 1,200 8,395 1,176,051

2005 1,176,051 4,288 -8,602 6,246 741 -1,615 2,673 1,196 3,869 1,179,920

2006 1,179,920 4,791 -7,277 8,313 1,022 2,058 6,849 -2,266 4,583 1,184,503

2007 1,184,503 5,327 -3,449 9,249 2,074 7,874 13,201 -4,296 8,905 1,193,4082008 1,193,408 5,412 -3,931 9,567 1,555 7,191 12,603 -4,309 8,294 1,201,702

2009 1,201,702 5,968 -2,514 11,972 1,102 10,560 16,528 -4,297 12,231 1,213,933

2010 1,213,933 5,801 -2,590 14,160 204 11,774 17,575 -4,296 13,279 1,227,212

2011 1,227,212 5,370 -4,171 14,423 1,297 11,549 16,919 -1,990 14,929 1,242,1412012 1,242,141 6,296 -3,928 11,789 2,372 10,233 16,529 -730 15,799 1,257,940

2013 1,257,940 6,373 -6,146 11,642 2,481 7,977 14,350 -728 13,622 1,271,5622014 1,271,562 5,857 -6,884 14,489 2,157 9,762 15,619 -728 14,891 1,286,453

2015 1,286,453 6,005 -5,859 13,069 3,604 10,814 16,819 -728 16,091 1,302,544

2016 1,302,544 6,153 -5,426 15,048 6,395 16,017 22,170 -259 21,911 1,324,455

2017 1,324,455 6,304 -6,455 12,906 7,175 13,626 19,930 0 19,930 1,344,385

2018 1,344,385 6,377 -9,918 13,398 6,154 9,634 16,011 0 16,011 1,360,3962019 1,360,396

Migration

Manitoba Population and Demographic Estimates - Quarterly (Persons)

Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01

Start of

Quarter

Start

Population

Natural

Increase

Net

Interprovincial

Net

International

Other

International Total Net

Component

Growth Residual

Population

Growth

End

Population

Jan 1, 2014 1,271,562 1,048 -1,646 3,324 298 1,976 3,024 -179 2,845 1,274,407

Apr 1, 2014 1,274,407 1,559 -2,083 4,554 759 3,230 4,789 -182 4,607 1,279,014

Jul 1, 2014 1,279,014 1,968 -2,134 3,568 1,133 2,567 4,535 -183 4,352 1,283,366

Oct 1, 2014 1,283,366 1,282 -1,021 3,043 -33 1,989 3,271 -184 3,087 1,286,453

Jan 1, 2015 1,286,453 895 -1,738 2,622 41 925 1,820 -179 1,641 1,288,094

Apr 1, 2015 1,288,094 1,647 -1,785 3,661 792 2,668 4,315 -182 4,133 1,292,227

Jul 1, 2015 1,292,227 1,912 -1,643 3,465 1,551 3,373 5,285 -183 5,102 1,297,329

Oct 1, 2015 1,297,329 1,551 -693 3,321 1,220 3,848 5,399 -184 5,215 1,302,544

Jan 1, 2016 1,302,544 1,293 -888 3,921 1,000 4,033 5,326 -181 5,145 1,307,689

Apr 1, 2016 1,307,689 1,567 -1,657 4,933 1,685 4,961 6,528 -78 6,450 1,314,139

Jul 1, 2016 1,314,139 1,983 -2,293 3,617 2,611 3,935 5,918 0 5,918 1,320,057

Oct 1, 2016 1,320,057 1,310 -588 2,577 1,099 3,088 4,398 0 4,398 1,324,455

Jan 1, 2017 1,324,455 1,342 -886 3,537 534 3,185 4,527 0 4,527 1,328,982

Apr 1, 2017 1,328,982 1,607 -1,357 4,165 1,999 4,807 6,414 0 6,414 1,335,396

Jul 1, 2017 1,335,396 2,022 -2,504 3,136 2,726 3,358 5,380 0 5,380 1,340,776

Oct 1, 2017 1,340,776 1,333 -1,708 2,068 1,916 2,276 3,609 0 3,609 1,344,385

Jan 1, 2018 1,344,385 1,360 -2,244 3,012 338 1,106 2,466 0 2,466 1,346,851

Apr 1, 2018 1,346,851 1,616 -2,743 4,132 2,298 3,687 5,303 0 5,303 1,352,154

Jul 1, 2018 1,352,154 2,054 -2,983 3,255 2,356 2,628 4,682 0 4,682 1,356,836

Oct 1, 2018 1,356,836 1,347 -1,948 2,999 1,162 2,213 3,560 0 3,560 1,360,396Jan 1, 2019 1,360,396

Migration

Appendix Tables

Comparability over time?

Estimates of population and demographic components may not be fully comparable over time due to seasonal effects, changes in methodologies and completeness of source data.