january 29-30, 2004 fort lauderdale, fl 1 remi southeast policy analysis and users’ conference...

January 29-30, 2004January 29-30, 2004

Fort Lauderdale, FLFort Lauderdale, FL

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www.sfrpc.comwww.sfrpc.com

REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ ConferenceREMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference

Developing the South Developing the South Florida Economic Florida Economic

Forecasting PartnershipForecasting Partnership

January 30, 2004

Presented by

Richard F. Ogburn, Principal Planner

January 29-30, 2004January 29-30, 2004


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South Florida Economic Forecasting PartnershipSouth Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

Purpose of the Partnership

Enhance the ability of the partners and other interested parties to prepare accurate and timely demographic and economic forecasts and analysis in the Southeast Florida region (composed of the 7 counties in the jurisdiction of the two Regional Planning Councils - South Florida and Treasure Coast).

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• In 2000, the 7-county region had a population of 5.5 million, up from 3.5 million in 1980 and 4.5 million in 1990.

• Projected growth for the next 20 years is 250 net new residents each and every day.

• Almost one-third of the region’s population in 2000 was foreign-born.

• Over half of the net new residents each year come from abroad.

South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

January 29-30, 2004January 29-30, 2004


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Decennial Population Growth, 1920-2030

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1920/30 1930/40 1940/50 1950/60 1960/70 1970/80 1980/90 1990/00 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30

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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

Monroe County Martin CountyMiami-Dade County St. Lucie CountyBroward County Indian River CountyPalm Beach County Rest of the State of Florida

The Partnership acquired an 8-region 53-sector version of REMI’s Policy Insight. The eight “regions” of the model are:

Identical copies of the model are maintained at 6 locations:the 2 RPC offices, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, and the South Florida Water Management District.

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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

• A coordinated forecasting process will improve the internal consistency of forecasts within the region.

• For example, the estimate of future net migration between Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will be useful for each county’s population forecast. A coordinated forecasting process would ensure that both counties use the same inter-county migration estimate in their respective forecast. Failing to do so will create an internal inconsistency from a regional perspective.

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County-to-County Migration, 1995-2000

Place ofResidence in 1995 Monroe M-Dade Broward P Beach Martin St Lucie I River SE Florida

Population 5 years and Over 76,301 2,108,512 1,520,842 1,069,257 121,277 182,029 107,745 5,185,963Same Residence (Non-Movers) 36,782 1,059,057 716,810 528,923 60,585 94,514 56,122 2,552,793Different Residence (Movers) 39,519 1,049,455 804,032 540,334 60,692 87,515 51,623 2,633,170 From Elsewhere in Same County 16,405 693,888 412,957 277,655 22,941 40,665 22,131 1,715,966 In-Migrants 23,114 355,567 391,075 262,679 37,751 46,850 29,492 917,204 From Another County in Florida 7,080 45,963 137,382 77,803 17,587 20,538 11,468 88,497 Monroe County 1,844 1,239 751 157 193 106 Miami-Dade County 2,501 89,915 14,448 1,373 1,993 1,002 Broward County 668 18,136 36,032 1,995 2,994 1,365 Palm Beach County 568 3,894 18,136 6,416 3,282 1,193 Martin County 59 408 404 2,243 4,268 573 St. Lucie County 4 612 1,012 1,831 3,329 1,611 Indian River County 75 560 224 410 174 1,326 Other Counties 3,205 20,509 26,452 22,088 4,143 6,482 5,618 88,497 From Another State 12,984 102,915 160,477 138,170 17,551 22,305 15,940 470,342 New Jersey 638 10,954 15,301 14,530 2,201 1,995 1,212 46,831 New York 1,035 28,591 46,438 41,581 3,376 5,159 2,178 128,358 Other States 11,311 63,370 98,738 82,059 11,974 15,151 12,550 295,153 From Abroad 3,050 206,689 93,216 46,706 2,613 4,007 2,084 358,365

Florida County of Residence in 2000

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Growth of the Foreign-Born Population

Categories 1980 1980-1990 1990 1990-2000 2000TOTAL POPULATION 3,495,124 980,279 4,475,403 1,044,123 5,519,526NATIVITY AND PLACE OF BIRTH Native population 2,728,795 538,665 3,267,460 445,696 3,713,156 Foreign-born population 766,329 441,614 1,207,943 598,427 1,806,370 Entered U.S. during the previous 10 years 251,191 261,879 513,070 171,711 684,781 Native population (%) 78.07 54.95 73.01 42.69 67.27 Foreign-born population (%) 21.93 45.05 26.99 57.31 32.73 Entered U.S. during the previous 10 years (%) 7.19 26.71 11.46 16.45 12.41

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Growth of the Foreign-Born Population

766,329

441,614

1,207,943

598,427

1,806,370

2,728,795

538,665

3,267,460

445,696

3,713,156

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 Change 1980-90 1990 Change 1990-00 2000

Foreign-born Native

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• A coordinated forecasting process will create opportunities for testing the reasonableness of county-based forecast results.

• Since 1970, Southeast Florida’s share of the total population of the State of Florida has remained stable, although it is projected to decline, due to factors such as the proportionally lower supply of developable land and the higher cost of living in the region. Forecasts at the individual county level could be combined and checked against the region’s share of the state.


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Region’s Share of State Population

Counties 1970 1980 1990 2000Indian River 35,992 59,896 90,208 112,947St. Lucie 50,836 87,182 150,171 192,695Martin 28,035 64,014 100,900 126,731Palm Beach 348,993 576,758 863,503 1,131,184Broward 620,100 1,018,257 1,255,531 1,623,018Miami-Dade 1,267,792 1,625,509 1,937,194 2,253,362Monroe 52,586 63,188 78,024 79,589Southeast Florida 2,404,334 3,494,804 4,475,531 5,519,526Florida 6,791,418 9,746,324 12,938,071 15,982,378Region/State (%) 35.4% 35.9% 34.6% 34.5%

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• The use of a consistent forecast for the entire region will enhance the ability of the region and each of its component counties to negotiate successfully for an appropriate share of state and federal resources.

• Official population estimates for Southeast Florida used in the state’s 2001 budgeting process underestimated the April 1, 2000 population of the region by almost a quarter of a million residents, when compared with Census 2000 data (85.5% of the overall underestimate in the State).


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Differences in Population Estimates

Area 2000 EDR 2000 Census Difference %Palm Beach 1,069,790 1,131,184 -61,394 -5.4%Broward 1,517,825 1,623,018 -105,193 -6.5%Miami-Dade 2,164,494 2,253,362 -88,868 -3.9%Monroe 87,654 79,589 8,065 10.1%SE Florida 4,839,763 5,087,153 -247,390 -4.9%Florida 15,693,075 15,982,378 -289,303 -1.8%Region/State (%) 30.8% 31.8% 85.5%

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• As the interrelationships among counties grow stronger, it is increasingly important to forecast growth and change at the regional level.

• The labor market in Southeast Florida is increasingly becoming a single regional market, with many people living in one county while working in another. As population growth in one county is also dependent upon conditions (such as proximity to build-out) in other counties, it is increasingly difficult to conduct accurate forecasting solely at the county level.


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Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 1990

County ofResidence I River St Lucie Martin P Beach Broward M-Dade Monroe Other Total

Indian River 30,126 2,381 240 216 31 97 0 1,426 34,517St. Lucie 2,839 42,394 10,851 2,334 325 172 0 1,088 60,003Martin 54 2,574 29,373 7,466 201 136 0 806 40,610Palm Beach 107 535 2,061 343,100 25,462 3,483 39 5,473 380,260Broward 29 134 98 31,809 471,595 77,285 186 6,953 588,089Miami-Dade 12 32 0 2,909 31,561 844,722 1,801 6,959 887,996Monroe 0 0 0 31 227 1,727 38,189 733 40,907Other 3,141 1,114 882 4,155 2,838 8,993 244 21,367Total 36,308 49,164 43,505 392,020 532,240 936,615 40,459 22,012 2,016,015

County of Work

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County ofResidence I River St Lucie Martin P Beach Broward M-Dade Monroe Other Total

Indian River 39,072 2,907 365 177 92 86 0 2,177 44,876St. Lucie 4,577 49,979 15,166 4,248 353 297 16 1,625 76,261Martin 239 3,703 34,150 9,926 422 316 0 1,485 50,241Palm Beach 113 698 2,289 421,811 37,685 5,560 97 7,319 475,572Broward 41 117 251 52,712 565,812 115,044 256 9,310 743,543Miami-Dade 76 64 65 3,843 60,096 823,642 2,821 8,716 899,323Monroe 0 0 6 42 142 1,186 39,721 520 41,617Other 4,003 2,037 891 6,509 5,669 10,327 1,035 0 30,471Total 48,121 59,505 53,183 499,268 670,271 956,458 43,946 31,152 2,361,904

County of Work

Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 2000

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• Build expertise in demographic and economic analysis in the region and its component counties – shared learning.

• Improve understanding of the region and the relationships among its member counties.

• Develop consensus demographic and economic forecasts, adjusting the regional REMI control as appropriate.

• Support systematic use of the model in project and policy analysis to ensure improved decision-making.

Convening the Partnership: Objectives

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• SFRPC, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach met to discuss demographic forecasts starting in 2001

• Broward County encouraged inclusion of regional economic forecasting and fiscal impact analysis

• Agreement to acquire a model – Summer 2002• Letter of Interest – REMI, Rutgers Center for Urban

Policy Research, Washington Economics Group• Selection of REMI’s Policy Insight – late 2002• Expansion of group to include counties in the 2 RPCs

Convening the Partnership: Steps

January 29-30, 2004January 29-30, 2004


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Other Potential Users• School Boards• Economic Development promotion organizations• Airports• Seaports• Metropolitan Planning Organizations• Florida Department of Transportation Districts• Developers

Convening the Partnership: Coordination

january 29-30, 2004 fort lauderdale, fl 1 remi southeast policy analysis and users’ conference...

Documents

remi southeast policy

users conference slide

fort lauderdale

users conference growth

users conference county

southeast florida region

foreignborn population

principal planner slide