japan energy update kae takase senior economist governance design laboratory
TRANSCRIPT
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Japan Energy Update
Kae TakaseSenior Economist
Governance Design Laboratory
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Energy and Economy to 2030 (reference)
Mill
ion
kl o
f cr
ude
oil e
quiv
alen
t
Billion yen (1995 prices)
Economy is assumed to grow by 2% to 2010, 1.7% to 2020, 1.2% to 2030. But energy demand is not supposed to grow, but to decrease since 2021.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000
TFC TFCgov GDP
Gov. Reference
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Reference assumption (2)
Economic growth
TFP (total factor productivity) is assumed to increase 1%/year.
Labor force will continue to decrease since 1997. Unemployment rate will be around 4%.
F.Y. 2010/2003 2020/2010 2030/2020
GDP growth 2.0 %/y 1.7 %/y 1.2 %/y
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ΔCO2=ΔCO2/E+ ΔE/GDP+ ΔGDP
Japanese government expects very high E/GDP reduction for the future.
Renewable scenario for 2030 does not show much CO2/E reduction.
- 4.0- 3.0- 2.0- 1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0
ref cur.pol. ex.pol. ref efi ren
70- 90 90- 00 2000- 2010 2010- 2030CO2/ E E/ GDP GDP CO2
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ΔCO2=ΔCO2/E+ ΔE/GDP+ΔGDP/POP+ΔPOP
- 4.0- 3.0- 2.0- 1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0
ref cur.pol. ex.pol. ref efi ren
70- 90 90- 00 2000- 2010 2010- 2030CO2/ E E/ GDP GDP/ POP POP CO2
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Energy intensity of GDP (reference + higher efficiency)
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
ref. high efi.
Energy intensity of GDP is assumed to decrease very fast.
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CO2 Emission
207
286317 318 302
287311
258
299
0
350
ref cur.pol. ex.pol. ref efi ren
70 90 00 2010 2030
Mt-
C
Kyoto target is set to +-0% of 1990 level for CO2 emission from energy, and it is expected to be accomplished by ‘additional’ policies.
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CO2 Emission in 2003
0.0
350.0
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Mt-
C
+13%
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Final Demand by sector (reference)
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
2000 2010 2030
Industry RefResidential RefCommercial RefPassenger RefCargo Ref
Energy demand decrease in industrial sector, but increase in other sector (except for cargo after 2010).
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Final Demand by sector (reference + energy saving tech.)
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
2000 2010 2030
Industry RefIndustry SavResidential RefResidential SavCommercial RefCommercial SavPassenger RefPassenger SavCargo RefCargo Sav
Kyoto target
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Policy Measures for Kyoto target 1) Industry
Reference Current AdditionalVoluntary reduction by JFE* -192High performance furnace -30 -40High performance boiler -10 -50High performance laser -Cascading in complex - 100*Japan Federation of Economic Organizations (Nippon Keidanren)
Unit: 0000 kl (Crude oil equivalent)
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Policy Measures for Kyoto target 2) Residential & Commercial
Reference Current Additional
Best efficient standard (current) -570
Best efficient standard (current) - 10
Reduction of stand-by elec. -40
Higher efficient house -240 -280 -300
Higher efficient building -250 -530 -560
Efficient boiler -20 -110 -260
Efficient lighting 0 -50
Efficient air conditioner for building - -30
HEMS 0 -50 -90
BEMS -120 -170
Strict implementation of energy efficiency law - 70
Unit: 0000 kl (Crude oil equivalent)
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Policy Measures for Kyoto target 3) Transportation
Reference Current Additional
Best efficient standard (current) -870
Best efficient standard (current) - 10
More clean energy car -20 -60 -110
Introduction of sulfur-free fuel - 40
Introduction of no-idling car - 20
Comprehensive policies in transportation system
-310 -720 -980 to -1170
Unit: 0000 kl (Crude oil equivalent)
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Policy Measures for Kyoto target 4) Trans-sectoral
Reference Current Additional
More information of efficient appliances
- -100
R&D in energy efficiency - -110
Unit: 0000 kl (Crude oil equivalent)
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Policy Measures for Kyoto target 5) Transformation
Reference Current Additional
Nuclear Capacity factor 83-77% 87-88%
Renewables 9 G liter 15 G liter 19 G liter
NG cogeneration 3030 MW 4620 MW 4910 MW
Fuel cell 40 MW 2200 MW
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Summary of Government Outlook (1)
Energy demand is expected to increase gradually to 2030. Structural change in economic activity Demand grows for residential, commercial, and
passenger transportation. Nuclear generation plan has became smaller
since last outlook. (+13 +4 plants until 2010) Policy to raise capacity factor for Kyoto target. From 2010 to 2030
High nuclear case: 4+13 (capacity factor 90%) reference: 4+6 (85%) Low nuclear case: 4+4 (85%)
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Summary of Government Outlook (1)
Kyoto target is set to +-0% of 1990 level, but it is a challenging target.
-6% is planned to meet by flexibility measures (emission trading, CDM, etc) and carbon tax.
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Japan LEAP model for AES04
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Scenarios1. Reference
Follows IEEJ (Institute of Energy Economics, Japan) forecast in 2002.
2. National Alternative Additional policies for less nuclear and more
renewables and energy efficient technologies.
3. Regional Alternative Additional policies with North East Asian regional
cooperation. All scenarios are calculated from 2000 to 2030.
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Regional Alternative (1)
Pipeline Oil Import from Siberia 1 million bbl/day, from 2010, $1.5/bbl
higher price Pipeline Gas Import from Sakhalin
6 million ton from 2015, price is set $3/GJ in 2005 (rise at the rate of crude oil price)
Electricity import from Sakhalin 2GW from 2012, 4GW from 2014, 5
USC/kWh (fueled by natural gas)
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Regional Alternative (2) Oil Refining on Commission with China
10,000 bbl/day in 2004, increase to 60,000 bbl/day in 2010, remain same until 2015, finish in 2016
Commission fee is set $3/bbl Regional Cooperation in Nuclear
Funds Nuclear Research: 8 million USD from 2007 to 2015, raise to 100 million
USD until 2025, raise to 300 million USD by 2030 Waste Agreement: 8 million USD from 2006 to 2015, 25 million USD from
2016 to 2030 Cooperation in Energy Efficiency and Renewables
Funds Energy Efficiency: cost $1/HH since 2006 (approx. 50 million USD/year),
Renewables: cost 50 million USD/year to Elec. Gen. Effect
2 years earlier implementation of technologies in energy efficiency and renewables
Cost reduction by 10%
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Total Cost of scenariosBillion Japanese yen (2002 Price)
*These costs are annual (not cumulative) costs, and are relative to the reference case.
NA=National Alternative, RA=Regional Alternative
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
NA RA
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Difference with reference (Primary)
-222 -304
-1,217 -1,264 -1,308 -1,339-361
-506
-1,546-1,691
-1,814 -1,912
314 308930 947 912 859
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
NA RA NA RA NA RA
2010 2020 2030
Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro-p Nuclear Renewables Heat
Unit: 10^10kcal
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Comparison with other outlook Final Energy Demand
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000
2000 2010 2020 2030
gov2004 gov04c gov04agov04sav COMPASS04ref COMPASS04bCOMPASS04c IEEJ 2002 AES05REFAES05NA AES05RA
Unit: 10^15J
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Self-sufficiency
EJ, % 20002030
BAU NA RA
Rate of self-sufficiency (%)
20% 23% 22% 22%
Rate of NEA sufficiency (%)
33%
Definition of self-sufficiency : production of fossil fuel, renewable energy (including geothermal , hydropower, and waste), and nuclear energy.
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CO2 Emission
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
BAU NA RA
BAU
NA
RA
Index: 2000=1
reference
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Summary Regional cooperation needs higher cost in early ye
ars, but results in lower cost in a long run (comparing with national alternative). More energy efficiency measure and renewables are inst
alled in RA, but the cost of them decline, and the total cost becomes lower even more are installed.
Regional cooperation policy would result in higher regional-self-sufficiency. (BAU 23%, NA 22%, RA 33%)
CO2 emission: slightly lower emission in regional alternative than national alternative