japan low-carbon society (lcs) studygroup3: investment: enabling low-carbon societies jose alberto...

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Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) Study

Designed by Hajime Sakai

http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf

1. If we cannot go to LCS,…2. LCS offers higher QOL with

less energy demand and lower-carbon energy supply

3. LCS needs good design, early action, and innovations

Junichi Fujino (NIES), 17th Feb, 2008The 13th AIM International Workshop, Ohyama Memorial Hall, Tsukuba

2東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター

By Earth Simulation

CCSR/NIES/FRSGCSurface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC)

3

UN Climate Change Conference 2007COP13 and COP/MOP3Bali Indonesia3-14 December, 2007

4

http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html

5

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050FY2004-2006 (PhaseI),2007-2008 (Phase II)

Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ

Green buildingsSelf-sustained city

Decentralized services

Eco awarenessEffective

communicationDematerializa

tion19

90

2000

2020

2050

2010

BaU scenario

Interventionscenario

EE improvement

New energy

Energy saving

Structure change

Life-stylechange

Tech. innovation

Urban structure IT-society

Techno-Socio Innovation Study

GHG reduction target（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target

Long-termScenario

DevelopmentStudy

Development of socio-economic scenarios, evaluating counter-measures with social-economic-technology models GH

G em

issi

on

DecoplingEco modernizationHigh value industry

Middle-termTarget year

Loge-termTarget year

-1135

Valid

Equity

Suitable

Effective

ReductionTarget study

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan Advisory board：advice to project

5 teams60 Researchers

Propose options of long-term global warming policy

Next generation vehiclesEfficient transportation

systemAdvanced logisticsTransportation

system

Industrial structure

6

JapanJapanLowLow--

Carbon Carbon SocietySocietyProjectProject

BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

年

温室

効果

ガス

排出

量 (二

酸化

炭素

換算

：G

tC/年

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

年

気温

上昇

(199

0年=0

.6℃

)

GHG475ppm

GHG: Greenhouse gases50% reduction

650

550500

BaU

Tem

pera

ture

rais

e(a

bove

the

pre-

indu

stria

l lev

el)

Year

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (G

t-Ceq

)

475

650550500

BaUGlobal GHG emissions should Global GHG emissions should be reduced by 50% in 2050be reduced by 50% in 2050

Calculated by AIM model

To control temperature rTo control temperature raaise ise below 2below 2ooCC

Year

Japanese reduction

target in 205060-80%

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

W orld

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO

2 per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-C

/cap

)

GermanyMETI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

How to structure How to structure global participation global participation

Large GHG cut is possible in JapanLarge GHG cut is possible in Japan

Possible trendPossible trend--breaking options breaking options to achieve to achieve 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan

Intensity Imp. (CI)

Imp. (EE)Carbon

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

• Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS• Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

EE & CI• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuel cell battery vehicles

Energy Efficiency • Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting system

• Fuel cell system• Photovoltaic on the roof

Carbon Intensity Imp. (CI)

• Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas

Demand growth by activity level change

• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of households

Soci-ety


Reduction of service demands (SD)


Energy Efficiency Imp. (EE)

Factors Class.

• Nuclear energy• Effective use of electricity in night time with storage• Hydrogen supply with low-carbon energy sources

Energy Transform

ation

• Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function• Public transportation system

Trans-portation

• High insulation dwelling and building• Home/Building energy management system

Residential and com

mercial

• Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motor etc.

Industrial

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions

Intensity Imp. (CI)

Imp. (EE)Carbon



EE & CI• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuel cell battery vehicles

Energy Efficiency • Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting system



• Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas

Demand growth by activity level change

• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of households

Soci-ety





Factors Class.


Energy Transform

ation


Trans-portation


Residential and com

mercial


Industrial

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissionsActivity

31

CO

2em

issi

ons

in 2

000

SD29

EE84

CI27

EE & CI73

CCS42

CO

2re

duct

ions

in e

nerg

yen

d-us

e se

ctor（

MtC

）C

O2

redu

ctio

ns in

ene

rgy

trans

form

atio

n se

ctor（

MtC）

Red

uctio

n of

CO

2em

issi

ons

（M

tC）

Incr

ease

of

CO

2Em

issi

ons

22

9

19

28

610

34

12

73

42

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demand

CO

2em

issi

ons

in 2

050

7

Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-orientedUrban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

As for LCS visions, As for LCS visions, we prepared two different we prepared two different but likely future societiesbut likely future societies

Akemi Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/Expo_2005_of_Satsuki_and_Mei%E2%80%99s_House_01.jpg

8Efficient useNew energy

InfrastructureEco-lifestyle

Super high efficiency air-conditioner

Stand-by energy reduction

LED lightPV on roof

Fuel cell cogeneration

Heat insulation house

Hot water supply by heat pump or

solar heating

HEMS (Home Energy

Management System)

Eco-life Navigation

COP=8for cooling

EnvironmentEducation

10-20% reduction

66% reduction oflighting demand

60% reduction of heat demand

33% reduction COP=5 for warming

3-4kW

Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050

10-20% reduction

Maho Miyashita

9

17

10

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

toe)

Change of the numberof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of energydemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption

H2 consumption

Solar consumption

Biomass consumption

Gas consumption

Oil consumption

Energy consumption in2000

Residential sector CO2 reduction potential: 50%

Hi-Insulated housing

Energy Effiency

Social Innovations

TechnologicalInnovations

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

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Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions Factors Class.

Soci-ety • High economic growth

• Decrease of population and number of householdsDemand growth by activity level change

• Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas Carbon Intensity Imp. (CI)



• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuel cell battery vehicles

EE & CI



• Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting system







Industrial


Residential and com

mercial


Trans-portation


Energy

Transformation

Activity31

CO

2em

issi

ons

in 2

000

SD29

EE84

CI27

EE & CI73

CCS42

CO

2re

duct

ions

in e

nerg

yen

d-us

e se

ctor（

MtC

）C

O2

redu

ctio

ns in

ene

rgy

trans

form

atio

n se

ctor（

MtC）

Red

uctio

n of

CO

2em

issi

ons

（M

tC）

Incr

ease

of

CO

2Em

issi

ons

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society

22

9

19

28

610

34

12

73

42

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demand

CO

2em

issi

ons

in 2

050

Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳwith moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050

11

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

W orld

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO

2 per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-C

/cap

)

GermanyMETI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

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CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Gt-C LCS Scenario

Jiang Kejun, Low-Carbon Options in ChinaEMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006

13http://2050.nies.go.jphttp://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan-UK Joint Research ProjectLCS through Sustainable Development

for Global Participation

A Second workshop was held in London, June13-15, 2007.

A Third workshop was held in Japan, Feb13-15, 2008.

A First workshop was held in Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.

G8 JapanJuly 2008

G8 Gleneagles 2005

Developing and Diffusing Innovations for our good life and LCS through SD

Participants from 19 countries;Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)Africa: South Africa, NigeriaEurope: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, RussiaLatin America: Brazil, Mexico, ChileNorth America: US, Canada

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Panel Discussion: Interactive discussion using electronic opinion counters

13:00-15:30 Co-chairs: Dr. Shuzo Nishioka (NIES) and Dr. Jim Skea(UKERC)

Group1: Behaviour change and its impact on delivering low-carbon societiesJeremy Watson (Arup, UK) and Yuichi Moriguchi (NIES, Japan)

Group2: Aligning Sustainable Development with low-carbon societiesOgunlade Davidson (University of Sierra Leone) andTaka Hiraishi (IGES, Japan)

Group3: Investment: enabling low-carbon societiesJose Alberto Garibaldi (Energeia, Mexico) and Takejiro Sueyoshi (Special Advisor to the UNEP Finance Initiative)

Group4: Barriers and Opportunities: approaches to sensitive low-carbon sectorsJim Watson (SPRU, UK) and Naoya Tsukamoto (MoEJ, Japan)

Overall Discussion

The 3rd Symposium of Japan-UK Joint Research Project on Low-Carbon Societies“Roadmap to Low-Carbon World”

Date: 15th February, 2008, Venue: Hotel Metropolitan Edmont, Iidabashi, Tokyo

All presentations and discussions will be webcast

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Step 1 After the ANSWER call,PUSH the button of youranswer.

Step 1 After the ANSWER call,PUSH the button of youranswer.

Step 2 CHECK your answershown in display panel.

Step 2 CHECK your answershown in display panel.

Step 3 If you CHANGE your answer,push the button of correctanswer again.

Step 3 If you CHANGE your answer,push the button of correctanswer again.

Input button

Display panel

How to use the analyzer?How to use the analyzer?

* Tallying only your latest answer!* Tallying only your latest answer!

＊最後に押した番号が集計されます＊最後に押した番号が集計されます

17

2%2%

8%8%

47%47%

43%43%

0% of 1990 levels or increasing from current levels 0% of 1990 levels or increasing from current levels 削減する必要はない、もしくは増加削減する必要はない、もしくは増加

About 30% of 1990 levels About 30% of 1990 levels 1990年比で約30% 1990年比で約30%



In 2050, our world HAS TO reduce COIn 2050, our world HAS TO reduce CO22 to ?to ?QQ

世界で世界で20502050年までに年までに19901990年比で年比でCO2CO2を何を何%%削減する必要がある？削減する必要がある？

Before

18

15%15%

45%45%

32%32%

8%8%





In 2050, our world CAN reduce CO2 to ?In 2050, our world CAN reduce CO2 to ?QQ

世界で世界で20502050年までに年までに19901990年比で年比でCO2CO2は何は何%%削減されている削減されている？？

Before

19

0%0%

7%7%

53%53%

40%40%







After

20

2%2%0%0%

8%8%7%7%

47%47%53%53%

43%43%40%40%





Before After



After

21

8%8%

34%34%

47%47%

11%11%







After

22

15%15%8%8%

45%45%34%34%

32%32%47%47%

8%8%11%11%





Before After



After

23

0%0%

7%7%

53%53%

40%40%







After

8%8%

34%34%

47%47%

11%11%

CANCANHAS TOHAS TO

242020 20502000

Long-term target year

Release of A

IM result

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend

Forecasting

Back-casting

Normative target world

Reference future world

Service demand change

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredPolicy

intervention and Investment

required intervention policy and measures

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Checkingyear(2015)

Checkingyear(2025)

Requ

ired

int

erve

ntion

3. We need“Innovation”

to realize visions

2. We need“Visions”

1.”Target”is tough

50% reductionsIn the world

Forecasting from now and Backcasting Forecasting from now and Backcasting from future prescribed/normative worldfrom future prescribed/normative world

25

CO2 emissions＝PopActivity Energy CO2

× Pop Activity Energy× ×

＋＋＋

Changerate

CO2emissionChange rate

PopChange rate

ActivityPop

change rate

EnergyActivity

change rate

CO2

Energychange rate

＝

integral

differential

Total

Change rate＝speed

Total amount

Per capitaactivity

EnergyIntensity

CarbonIntensity

How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions

-0.5%/year 1.5%/year-2~3%/year1%/year

Y%/year X%/year

-3~4%/year

60-80% reductions

Kaya identity

The case of Japan LCS

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Hurry up!

Our time is limited towards a LCS.

Brussels Midi Station

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What do you want to do now What do you want to do now for our future?for our future?

Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’sPiano Class on Dec 23, 2005

28

What gift you can provide What gift you can provide for our future?for our future?

Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’sPiano Class on Dec 23, 2005

japan low-carbon society (lcs) studygroup3: investment: enabling low-carbon societies jose alberto...

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