japan s strategy for mitigating global warming · study on measures for mitigating climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
Japan’s Strategy for Mitigating Global Warming
Yoichi KayaResearch Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earth ( RITE )
Contents
1.What is RITE?
2. Short term strategy: Kyoto protocol
3. Medium term strategy: new agreement?
4. Long term strategy: non carbon energy
What is RITE
1. Established in 19902. Employees about 1903. Main sponsor government of Japan4. Size of annual budget 4 – 5 billion Yen3. Objective
Study on measures for mitigating climate change and related technologies
Industry
transport
commercial
households
Fig. Demand structure of Japan:2004
transport
commercial
household
industry
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
indu
stry
tran
spor
t
commer
ce
hous
ehold
tota
l CO2
2005
Kyoto plan
% increase after 1990
Fig.1.1 CO2 in Japan: Present status and 2010 target
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05
ton-km
Cargo ton-km1990=1
Fig. Trends of Cargo transport in Japan – 1995-2005 -
Fig. CO2 emission in households- 2004 trends, Japan -
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
heating
cool ing
hot water
cooking
lights etc
heat ing
cooling
hot water
cooking
lights/app liance
heating
lights/home appliancesshare in 1990
2004/1990% increase
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
'02 '03 '04 '08 '10
buildings
houses
Fig. percentage of those satisfying insulation standard- Buildings and houses newly built since 002 in Japan -
%
houses
buildings
CO2 emission in commercial sector-2004 trends, Japan -
offices
sales
hotels
schools
hospitals
others
05
1015
2025
3035
4045
50
offices
sa lesschools
CO2
area
share in 1990
2004/1990%increaseoffices
sales
Issues in the government planfor achieving Kyoto target
1. How to limit energy consumption in household and commercial sectors?household / wholesale and retail sales
only regulartory measures ? then what measures ?
2. How to reduce CO2/ energy in power sector?improvement in operation rates of nuclear power ?reduction in use of coal fired plants ?
Limits of Kyoto protocol
1. Participationlimiting GHG emission:
only one third of the world2. Character of the target
macroscopic numerical target of a country--- government can regulate small energy
consumers’ behavior?
Energy conservation
1. Most effectiveIn 20th century : rates of change
C/E : - 0.3% / y < E/G: - 0.9% / y decarbonization energy conservation
2. Applicable to all countries : beneficial in costs3. Ways of energy conservation
1) improvement in efficiencies of processes / machines2) cascade use of energy in various systems
METI’s long term forecast in 2004
1. Energy demand will peak between 2020 and 2030 mainly due to decrease in population.
2. Energy conservation will advance and give rise to further reduction in CO2 emission.
3. Further expansion of nuclear power is expected.
Future of Population in Japan
126,926
117,580
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
千人
高位推計中位推計低位推計
2000年
2030年
ピーク高位推計 2009年中位推計 2006年低位推計 2004年
99
121115
161
129
110
129
97106
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
年度
90年
度=10
0産業:鉱工業生産指数
家庭:世帯数
業務:業務床面積
旅客:人キロ
貨物:トンキロ
commercial
Person-kmNo. of households
Industrial production index
Ton km
Future activities in Japan: METI’s forecast
259
258
276
274
324
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
年度
百万
t-C
レファレンスケース
(上段)省エネ進展+原子力Lowケース(下段)省エネ進展ケース
(上段)省エネ進展+経済成長High+原子力Lowケース(下段)省エネ進展+経済成長High
METI forecast: CO2 emission in Japan
reference
Accelerated E conservation
+ modest nuclear
Fig.2.1 Penetration Share of Energy Efficient Technologies in Iron & Steel Industry in 2000
Source: Estimates by RITE from data of reports from IISI, NEDO, etc.
When the installation capacities of energy efficient technologies are estimated from various literatures, the installation shares are large in Japan.Detailed bottom-up modeling is needed to evaluate the effects of technology diffusions.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Continuouscasting
COG recovery LDG recovery CDQ TRT
Sha
re o
f fac
ility
in to
tal B
OF
stee
l pro
duct
ion
(%)
Japan Korea EU (15) US China India
Alternative idea about the future action for mitigating climate change
1. Multi-nation orientedNOT UN orientedvoluntary consortium of large countriesex. Asia Pacific Partnership, G-8
2. Action orientedenergy conservation for developing countriesrenewables in the long term
280
380
450
500
550
CO2ppm
Preindustrial level
Present level
EU 2C proposal, 50% prob.
Lovelock, collapse of seaweedsStern Review
THC collapse, 5-10%
Fig.CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
CO2 concentrations (ppmv)
Prob
abili
ty o
f TH
C c
olla
pse
(%)
Murphy(2004)Annan(2006)Hegerl(2006)
Fig. Possibility of the Collapse of Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
ppm
CO2 concentration in the air
Fig. CO2 emission for stabilizing its concentration in the airSource: IPCC TAR technical summary
550ppm
Presentlevel
Reforestation
CO2
Sequestration
Nuclear Power
OtherRenew. Energy
Photovoltaics
Fuel Switching
Energy Saving
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Car
bon
emis
sion
s an
d re
duct
ions
(GtC
/yr)
Energy SavingFuel SwitchingPhotovoltaicsOther Renewable EnergyNuclear PowerCO2 SequestrationReforestationNet CO2 Emission
among Fossil Fuels
Net Carbon Emissionsin 550ppmv Case
Net Carbon Emissionsin Reference Case
Technological Options for 550 Technological Options for 550 ppmvppmv StabilizationStabilization
Efforts for decarbonization1. Energy conservation
industries / transportationhouses and buildings
2. Non carbon primary energy 1) nuclear power 2) renewablesa. wind power / photovoltaicsb. remote hydro - space solar (SSPS)c. biomass d. ambient resources – geoheat
3. CO2 capture and storage (CCS)
Future key issues on nuclear power
Basis: Nuclear is almost indispensable in decarbonized future.
1. How to scrap and build present reactors?ex. Japanese case ( see the figure )
2. How and where to dispose nuclear wastes?
3. How to improve public acceptance?
0 20 40 60 80 100
USA
UK
Germany
Finland
Japan
Switzerland
Korea
Sweden
Belgium
France
nuclear
%
Fig. Share of nuclear in power supply (kwh、2001)
World average
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34
capacity
104 kw
yearFig. Age structure of Japanese nuclear power plants
20102020203040 years
old
Future of Renewables
1. Wind power / photovoltaics ( WP/PV)recent trends and limitsSSPS: future dream
2. Biomass3. Other renewables: ambient energy sources
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
wind power
GW
Fig. 3.1a Total capacity of wind power ( World)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
PV
MW
Fig.3.1 b: Recent trends of photovoltaics in the world (capacity )Source: Trends in photovoltaics applications, IEA
3.4 % (2030)0.9 GWJapan
20% ( 2030)3.1 GWDenmark
6 % (2020)6.8 GWUSA
---------8.3 GWSpain
25% (2025)16.6 GWGermany
Future target( % of elec.power )
Capacity(2004)
Table. Present and future target of wind power
1 plant
1,500plants
Fig. time variability of outputs of wind power(Germany)
Limits of WP / PVdue to output changeability
1. Their output changeability innevitably requires installation of those power plants which adjust their outputs so as to satisfy the condition
total supply = total demand
2. Facility costs of these power plants are additional costs of the grid solely due to introduction of WP/PV. = too heavy burden
→ capacity of WP/PV << grid capacity
Novel renewables in the long term
1. Requirements1) large scale2) outputs are stable in time
2. Future candidates1) remote large scale hydro2) space solar power system (SSPS)
Inst. for unmanned SpaceExperiment Free Flyer, Japan 2003
Source11.6 cents / kwhPower cost
Space facilities 5,800M$Transportation 6,800Other 20,100
Costs
Rectenna 12.5 km2Earth surface facility
microwavePower transmission
Solar cell- magnetron1GW, 2.6km×2.4km
Power generator
Geostational earth orbit(36,000km high)
Location of the orbitTable: Outline of SSPS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
UK Canada Germany USA Japan
heat ratio
Fig. Share of heat in residential energy demand
How to satisfy residential heat demand
1.Passive use of solar powerex. Passive house in Germany
2. Active use of solar powerintroduction of solar heater,etc.
3. Utilization of ambient energy resourcesas low temp. heat source of heat pump
P0 Heat demand D
Ph
αe COP low temp.ambient energy sources
D =α・COP・P (1)
Energy gain from ambient energy sources
F = P0-Ph = ( 1/αh - 1/ αe・COP ) (2)
Utilization of low temp. geoheat in residential sector
Primary E αh
conversion tosecondary E
powergeneration
heatpump
200Japan
9.000France
42.000Switzerland
50,000Germany
500,000USA
Number of houses utilizingGeoheat
Table: Distribution of Houses utilizing Geoheat
Potential of low temp. geothermal E- share in residential E, Japan -
1. COP of heat pumpgeothermal: 10 degrees in Celsium ( Sapporo, 10m deep )
supply temp. Theoretical real 30 deg. ( room?) 15 8 ?50 deg. ( water?) 8 6 ?
2. Availability of low temp. geothermal ( potential )Share in primary energy in Japan
residential commercial totalCOP=5 3.7 % 2.5 % 6.2 %COP=10( heating) 4.3 3.0 7.3
Concluding remarks (1)
1. Achievement of Kyoto target is not an easy task for Japan, and desperate efforts particularly in commercial and household sectors are required.
2. Multi-country action oriented approach should be promoted for long term GHG reduction, in parallel with Kyoto protocol .
3. Energy conservation is always one of the most effective measures for reducing CO2 emission.
Concluding remarks (2)
4. The role of nuclear power will be much larger, not only in Japan but also all over the world.
5. Present renewable technologies are important but we should notice that their capacity when connected to the grid is limited due to their output changeability.
6. Novel large scale renewables such as SSPS should be developed in the long term.
7. CCS is a useful but technology bridging the age of fossil fuel use and decarbonized society.