Germany

Argentina

Australia

Brazil

Canada

Chile

China

Colombia

Spain

France

India

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Netherlands

Russia

Saudi Arabia

UK

USA

y = 0.288995e0.000045x

R² = 74.7%

y = 0.000056x - 0.054949R² = 64.8%

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

3.5x

4.0x

4.5x

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Flig

hts

per

Capita

GDP per Capita (USD)

0.0x

0.1x

0.2x

0.3x

0.4x

0.5x

0.6x

0.7x

1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Real Regression

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Price for Air Travel Index Domestic Traffic Index

y = -52.5%x + 11.8%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25%

RP

K

Yield

1,450

1,460

1,470

1,480

1,490

4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60

RP

K

YieldIJET VOLAR AEROMEX

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

e

2019

e

2022

e

2025

e

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mexico USA South America LatAm Continent

RASK CASK Yield

7.8 8.7 7.3 5.3 79.4%

7.9 8.6 6.8 4.8 76.7%

5.3 5.0 4.6 3.1 82.2%

7.2 8.2 7.0 4.4 77.8%

8.7 8.6 8.2 5.6 83.2%

10.9 11.1 10.3 7.5 79.7%

7.3 9.3 6.1 4.0 75.1%

9.6 10.2 7.8 5.9 82.2%

10.3 10.4 9.0 5.7 84.2%

9.5 10.0 8.3 6.2 83.1%

8.1 8.9 6.8 4.8 84.3%

6.6 4.3 5.1 3.5 85.2%

8.7 9.9 7.1 5.3 83.0%

8.9 9.0 6.8 5.2 84.3%

7.7 5.4 5.9 3.7 86.3%

8.2 8.8 6.8 5.1 81.4%

5.4 6.4 5.2 5.0 82.4%

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

GDP(R$trillion) RPK(x1000) Yield (R$)

AirfareLiberalization

35%

3%5%

8%

23%

27%

40%

4%5%8%

20%

20%

Asia Pacific Africa Middle East

South America North America Europe

2014

2034

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

AVH GOL LATAM COPA

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

EV

/EB

ITD

A

ASUR GAP OMA

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 =𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐹1

(𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 − 𝑔)

𝐸𝑉

𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴=

(1 − 𝑡) −𝐷𝐴

𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴(1 − 𝑡) −

𝑅𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴

(𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 − 𝑔)

Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment Valuation. Hoboken: Wiley.