japan’s energy transition at the crossroad 4 years after 3.11 … · 2018-07-20 · japan’s...
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Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad
4 years after 3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster
Lunch Debate: Fukushima four years laterMarch 4th-5th 2015, in the European Parliaments
March 4th – 5th, 2015Tetsunari IIDA
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
4 yeas after
3.11 Fukushima3.11 Fukushima
2
Over 120,000 refugees left behind
3Aircraft Monitoring by MEXT(Deposition amount of Cesium134 and 137) 3
“Under control”“Completely blocked”by Shinzo ABE
4
by Shinzo ABE
4
The reality
55
Reactor Bldg.
Turbine Bldg.
Contaminatedwater tank
Leakage
Sampling well
Cooling w
ater
Sampling well
Sea level
6
Contamination plume
Impermeable layer ?
level
6
The reality
Ice wall
The reality
8
15 – 30 million m3
The reality
• Small improvements
• Big mess
9(画像) WSJ
• Big mess
• Spreading chaos
9
Spreading chaos
1. “ABE backlash” and “Shock doctrine”
2. All nuclear policy under METI’s governance
3. Corrupted policy design under METI
4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof
5. Complicating “waste issue”
6. “Odd situation” over radiation
7. Difficulty in refugees’ future
8. Media control10
300 32 11512192005
….but, Abe Administration has come,
119 21 30814182009
294 31 5712182012 54
11291 35 7325102014 41
“ABE-backlash” as “Shock doctrine”
• 2012.12 Strong will to resume nuclear
• 2013.1 ~ Top sales for nuclear export
• 2014.4 New Energy Policy with Nuclear
• 2014.6 Replace NRA committee member
• 2014.7 The first nuke (Sendai) passed NRA
• 2014.12 Local governments’ agreement
• 2015 summer The first nuke restart after 3.11 ?12
“ABE’s jigsaw puzzle”, trick for nuclear revival
1. Cleverly devised effort for nuclear restart
2. Changing public perception
3.Manipulating electricity tariff
13
4. Nuclear FIT (CfD)
5. Relaxing nuclear liability
6. Positive attitude for HLW issue
7. Still stick to “nuclear fuel cycle” myth
Public opinion for nuclear
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2006More nuclear
1414
2011
2013
Just keep
Phase-out
June
March(Source)2006;Japanese Gov., 2011&2013: NHK
Cost of nuclearYen/kWhNuclear cost revised
at compensation of
50 billion USD
1515Nuke Coal GasWindon off Geo Hydro
Now 110 B$(9.5 yen/kWh)
must be more
Paradigm change about nuclear
Before 3.11 After 3.11
Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply security
Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply security
More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply risk
More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply risk
1616
Supply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly
Supply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly
Supply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market
Supply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market
New trend in Justice : the case of Fukui
17
New trend in Justice : the case against TEPCO
18
All the nuclear has shut dow
n
20 25 30
Nuclear Power (TWh/month)
3.115.5
9.15
on Sept.15
0 5 10 15
1004
1006
1008
1010
1012
1102
1104
1106
1108
1110
1112
1202
1204
1206
1208
1210
1212
1302
1304
1306
1308
1310
Nuclear Power (TWh/month)
19
Energy saving – the largest alternative to nuclear
20
・Endurance・Efficiency
Some “evolution” in energy policy
・Endurance
・Commanding
・Lack of supply
・More power
・Bad for economy
・Efficiency
・Nega-watt
・Peak management
・DSM
・Good for business2121
25
35
45
(G
W)
Rinsing renewables power - the 4th revolution
-5
5
15
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Data from: GWEA, IAEA, Photon, Platts, 22
Sun rising again, and where
8
10
12
GW
/Ann
ual
JPGECH
230
2
4
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GW
/Ann
ual
FIT (house)
FIT (all)
FIT (2005~)
FIT (2000~)
Increasing EL tariff, decreasing PV cost in Japan
(source)Japan Renewable Foundation24
Sun rising again1st Oct. 2014
FIT Suspended
25th Jan. 2015
Regional CAP25
Rising community power in Japan
Niceko
Yamagata
Toyama
Bizen
Takarazuka
Kyotango
Takayama
Obihiro
Akita
Shiragami
IwateNiigata
Aizu Soma
Setagaya
Chofu
SaitamaIIDA city
Odawara
Bizen
Shizuoka NaganoObama
Yamaguchi
Kumamoto
Minami-SomaHiroshima
IwateNiigata
26
Rising community power : Fukushima
27
28
Old regime New paradigm
Centralized Small distributed
Monopoly Community ownership
At the crossroad
Monopoly Community ownership
Hierarchy Network
Fossil & nuclearRenewable &
Energy efficiency
(Numerical) Economic growth
Sufficiency, justice, welfare
2929