jay grymes wafb chief meteorologist lsu agcenter climatologist lsu agoutlook 2010 21 january 2010...
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Jay GrymesJay Grymes
WAFB Chief MeteorologistWAFB Chief Meteorologist
LSU AgCenter ClimatologistLSU AgCenter Climatologist
LSU AgOutlook 2010LSU AgOutlook 2010
21 January 201021 January 2010
Changing Climate . . . Changing Climate . . . Linkages to LA AgricultureLinkages to LA Agriculture
““Global Warming”Global Warming” generally refers to the apparent warming ofgenerally refers to the apparent warming of the Earth over the past 100+ years . . . andthe Earth over the past 100+ years . . . and impliesimplies a human impact or influence a human impact or influence
““Climate Change”Climate Change” refers to periodic shifts -- and temporal andrefers to periodic shifts -- and temporal and spatial variability -- of Earth’s local, regional,spatial variability -- of Earth’s local, regional, and global climateand global climate maymay include a human factor, but acknowledges include a human factor, but acknowledges that these variations have always occurredthat these variations have always occurred “ “climate change” is more than the changes inclimate change” is more than the changes in temperaturetemperature
NOAA 3-MonthNOAA 3-MonthClimate OutlooksClimate Outlooks
Don’t over-interpretDon’t over-interpretthese “outlooks”!these “outlooks”!
SourceSource: NOAA / NWS Climate Prediction Center: NOAA / NWS Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Think of these as Think of these as ‘Confidence Maps’ ‘Confidence Maps’
and not indicators of and not indicators of the amount of the amount of
departuredeparture
What about Louisiana’s Climate?What about Louisiana’s Climate?
-- has demonstrated change over the last-- has demonstrated change over the last100+ years 100+ years
-- changes and variability are not identical-- changes and variability are not identicalacross the stateacross the state
-- changes are not necessarily 1-directional-- changes are not necessarily 1-directional
““To understand the impacts and importance of To understand the impacts and importance of variability and change, we recognize the state’s long-variability and change, we recognize the state’s long-
term climatic patterns”term climatic patterns”
Comparison of Monthly Average Rainfall:Comparison of Monthly Average Rainfall:NW LA vs. SE LANW LA vs. SE LA
‘‘Wet’ October --Wet’ October -- generally ‘wet’ statewidegenerally ‘wet’ statewide
Source: NWS Doppler radar compositeSource: NWS Doppler radar compositehttp://weather.water.govhttp://weather.water.gov
Source: NWS Doppler radar compositeSource: NWS Doppler radar compositehttp://weather.water.govhttp://weather.water.gov
‘‘Dry’ November --Dry’ November -- ‘ ‘dry’ to ‘very-dry’ statewidedry’ to ‘very-dry’ statewide
Source: NWS Doppler radar compositeSource: NWS Doppler radar compositehttp://weather.water.govhttp://weather.water.gov
‘‘Mixed’ December --Mixed’ December -- ‘ ‘dry’ North to ‘record-wet’ southdry’ North to ‘record-wet’ south
Source: NWS Doppler radar compositeSource: NWS Doppler radar compositehttp://weather.water.govhttp://weather.water.gov
‘‘Dry’ January (so far) --Dry’ January (so far) -- generally ‘dry’ statewidegenerally ‘dry’ statewide
El NiñoEl Niñois Backis Back
SourceSource: NOAA Climate Prediction Center: NOAA Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
El Niño El Niño ‘Signature’ along the G‘Signature’ along the Gulf Coast: ulf Coast: ‘‘Active’ Active’ Sub-Tropical JetSub-Tropical Jet
El Niño El Niño ‘Signature’ along the G‘Signature’ along the Gulf Coast: ulf Coast: ‘‘Active’ Active’ Sub-Tropical JetSub-Tropical Jet
Sub-Tropical Jet
””Warm” SSTsWarm” SSTs
More FrequentMore FrequentGulf LowsGulf Lows
Forecast Model Predictions for the current El Niño:Forecast Model Predictions for the current El Niño:as of mid-Decemberas of mid-December
Source: Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figurehttp://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure
CurrentCurrent El Niño . . . El Niño . . .expected to persist atexpected to persist at
‘‘moderate to strong’ intensitymoderate to strong’ intensityinto Spring 2010into Spring 2010
La Niña
La Nada
El Niño
ENSO – El Niño / Southern OscillationENSO – El Niño / Southern Oscillation
Three Phases:Three Phases:El Niño El Niño (“warm” ocean phase)(“warm” ocean phase)La Niña La Niña (“cool” ocean phase)(“cool” ocean phase)La Nada La Nada (“neutral” ocean temps)(“neutral” ocean temps)
El Niño
La Niña
La Nada
U.S. Rainfall Trends since mid-1960sU.S. Rainfall Trends since mid-1960s(Dark Green = 2”+ per decade)(Dark Green = 2”+ per decade)
SourceSource: NOAA National Climatic Data Center: NOAA National Climatic Data Center www.ncdc.noaa.eduwww.ncdc.noaa.edu
Regional / local scale Regional / local scale variability in moisture variability in moisture
characteristicscharacteristics
SourceSource::Nat’l Climate Data CenterNat’l Climate Data Center www.ncdc.noaa.govwww.ncdc.noaa.gov
The ‘Acknowledged’ Global Temperature RecordThe ‘Acknowledged’ Global Temperature Record
The ‘Acknowledged’ Global Temperature RecordThe ‘Acknowledged’ Global Temperature Record
Source:Source:Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 YearsSurface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006). (2006).
National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.National Academies Press, Washington, DC.National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
““Little IceLittle Ice Age”Age”
““Medieval WarmMedieval WarmPeriod”Period”
Fischer et al, 2002
A Warmer, COA Warmer, CO22 ‘Enriched’ Atmosphere . . . ‘Enriched’ Atmosphere . . .
What’s missing?What’s missing?
IPCC (2007). IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007:Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis –The Physical Science Basis –Summary for PolicymakersSummary for Policymakers
COCO22 concentrations are believed to be concentrations are believed to be
the highest in least 650,000 years.the highest in least 650,000 years.
CHCH44 (methane) and N(methane) and N22O are bi-products ofO are bi-products of
human activity, mainly as a result ofhuman activity, mainly as a result of agriculture. agriculture.
COCO22
CHCH44
NN22OO
Annual Precipitation Projections Annual Precipitation Projections to 2100 :to 2100 :Two ‘Modeled’ ExamplesTwo ‘Modeled’ Examples
CCC 2100
Hadley2 Model 2100
Southeast Mixed Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
Savanna/Woodland
Grassland
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Shrub Woodland
Current and Future Southern Ecosystems (MAPSS Biogeography Model)
Current
Canadian Model 2100
Does this imply aDoes this imply asemi-permanentsemi-permanent““El Nino-like” El Nino-like” climateclimatefor the future?for the future?
Louisiana’s Climate Outlook . . .Louisiana’s Climate Outlook . . .for the Next 10 to 100 yearsfor the Next 10 to 100 years
Probable:Probable:- modest warming- modest warming- greater year-to-year variability --- greater year-to-year variability --
moremore extreme eventsextreme events??
Possible:Possible:- significant warming- significant warming- substantial drop in rainfall in LA- substantial drop in rainfall in LA
American Assoc. of State Climatologists (2001)American Assoc. of State Climatologists (2001)
““. . . climate predictions have not demonstrated skill . . . climate predictions have not demonstrated skill in projecting future variability and changes in . . . in projecting future variability and changes in . . .
growing seasons, drought, flood-producing rainfall, growing seasons, drought, flood-producing rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones and winter storms.”heat waves, tropical cyclones and winter storms.”
“ “ [However][However] . . . effective mitigation/adaptation . . . effective mitigation/adaptation policies and strategies need not depend on the policies and strategies need not depend on the
precision and confidence in future predictions …”precision and confidence in future predictions …”
. . . and . . .. . . and . . .
“… “… a lack of predictive skill in GCMs should not be a lack of predictive skill in GCMs should not be used as a justification to avoid policy development used as a justification to avoid policy development
and implementation that fosters ‘environmental and implementation that fosters ‘environmental stewardship’ and ecological responsibility.”stewardship’ and ecological responsibility.”
AASC (2001)AASC (2001)
Source: Dr. Virginia Burkett, USGSSource: Dr. Virginia Burkett, USGS
At a 2006 EPA workshop, I proposed:At a 2006 EPA workshop, I proposed:““Even if the threat of global warming/climate change Even if the threat of global warming/climate change
is being overstated, the most ‘modest’ of impacts is being overstated, the most ‘modest’ of impacts could have dire effects on Louisiana . . .could have dire effects on Louisiana . . .
Louisiana may be the most adversely impactedLouisiana may be the most adversely impacted of any state in the nation.” of any state in the nation.”
One guy’s perspective?!?One guy’s perspective?!?
Jay GrymesJay GrymesWAFB Chief MeteorologistWAFB Chief Meteorologist
LSU AgCenter ClimatologistLSU AgCenter Climatologist
jgrymes @ wafb.comjgrymes @ wafb.com
jgrymes @ lsu.edujgrymes @ lsu.edu
225 / 215-4713225 / 215-4713
““Thank You!”Thank You!”