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Water, California, and Agriculture

Jay R. LundDirector, Center for Watershed Sciences

Professor of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of California, Davis

watershed.ucdavis.edu/shed/lund/CaliforniaWaterBlog.com

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Where to begin?

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1. Wet winters, dry summers2. Special agriculture3. Global economy4. Attracts people & industries5. Migration fuels growth in all

industries

Mediterranean Climate + Global Economy

California is a prosperous, populous & dry place

Most annual rainfall variability in US

NOTES: Dots represent the coefficient of variation of total annual precipitation at weather stations for 1951-2008, Larger values have more year-to-year variability.

SOURCE: Dettinger, M., F. Ralph, T. Das, P. Neiman, and D. Cayan (2011), “Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California,” Water, 3(2), 445-478.

Annual coefficient of variation

Water and People in California

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Central Valley - 1873

Immense connected wetlands

Delta entirely tidal freshwater wetland

Pacific Flyway Fish and birds

evolved into this Immense human

transformations

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Native Habitat and FishesWetlands

California’s freshwater fishes are losing

Extinct

Special Concern

Listed

OK

Salmonid Habitat

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Decentralized management Multiple Federal and State

agencies & laws – wholesalers & regulators

1,000s of locally-elected water agencies

Most funds & governing local and regional agencies

Many coordinating water contracts

Many Local, State, Federal Agencies

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Dry with Regional Water Problems

1) Klamath River system 2) Sacramento Valley3) Mountain communities4) The Delta 5) Bay Area6) San Joaquin River7) Tulare Basin 8) Southern California 9) Salton Sea 10) Colorado River11) Salinas Valley12) Groundwater

Drivers of Change• Climate

– Sea level rise– Warming – Precipitation change

• Deterioration– Aging infrastructure– Contaminants – salts,

nitrates, etc.– Mining legacy– Groundwater overdraft– Earthquakes– Sacramento-San

Joaquin Delta

• Economy and Demography– State and federal finances– Globalization– Population growth and

urbanization• Ecosystems

– New invasive species– Continued degradation

• Science and technology– New chemicals– New Technologies

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Agriculture in California1) Large agricultural water

use (80% of human use) - 4 million irrigated hectares

2) $45 billion/yr revenues 3) $2 trillion economy4) More permanent crops5) Global markets

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Cumulative Jobs and

Revenues

Cumulative Jobs

Cumulative Revenues

Cumulative Irrigated Area (1000 acres)

Vegetables,

Horticulture &

Non-Tree Fruits

VinesSubtropical Fruits

Alm

onds & Pistachios

Deciduous (O

rchards)

Processing Tomato

Other Field, Grain, & Feed Crops

Fresh Tomato + C

ucurbits

Onion + G

arlic

Sacramento Valley Precipitation

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2014: 8th driest in 106 years,4th driest in runoff

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Reasons for Hope1) Human water use

peaked?

2) Economy depends less on water abundance

3) Water markets can shift use and civilize change

4) We agree we have a problem

Source: Hanak et al. 2011

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Future of California and Water1. Still dry with Mediterranean

climate2. Largely built infrastructure3. More groundwater

management4. Growing urban and agric.

economy5. Less agricultural water use6. New technologies and water

management – Portfolios7. Ecosystem management

Local and Statewide PortfolioLocal Activities:

- Conservation and use efficiency - Wastewater reuse - Desalination (brackish & ocean) - Groundwater use and recharge - Surface reservoir operations - Water markets and exchanges

Statewide Activities: - Inter-regional water conveyance - Surface reservoir operations - Plumbing codes & conservation incentives - Groundwater banking and recharge - Water market support and conveyance - Wastewater reuse subsidies

Integrating mix of actions – portfolio planning.

2015 Water Shortage & Changes in Groundwater

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 Region

2015 Water use changes (MAF)Surface Water Groundwater

Net Delivery Shortage

Sacramento -2.29 1.19 -1.1San Joaquin -1.84 1.40 -0.44Tulare -4.57 3.41 -1.16Central Coast and So. Cal.

-0.02 0.02 0.01

Total -8.72 6.02 -2.7

2015 Estimated Agricultural Drought Impacts

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Description Impact Base year levels

Percent change

Surface water shortage (million acre-ft) 8.7 18.0 -48%

Groundwater replacement (million acre-ft) 6.0 8.4 72%

Net water shortage (million acre-ft) 2.7 26.4 -10%

Drought-related idle land (acres) 540,000 1.2 million* 45%

Crop revenue losses ($) $900 million $35 billion 2.6%

Dairy and livestock revenue losses ($) $350 million $12.4 billion 2.8%

Costs of additional pumping ($) $590 million $780 million 75.5%

Direct costs ($) $1.8 billion NA NA

Total economic impact ($) $2.7 billion NA NA

Direct job losses (farm seasonal) 10,100 200,000# 5.1%

Total job losses 21,000 NA NA

* NASA-ARC estimate of normal Central Valley idle land. # Total agriculture employment is about 412,000, of which 200,000 is farm production.

Food Price Index Projections

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Consumer Price Indexes Trend % change 2014All food 2.7    Food away from home 2.5    Food at home 2.9 Meats, poultry, and fish 8.8 Meats 11.8 Poultry 1.7 Eggs 9.7 Dairy products 4.4    Fats and oils 1.1 Fruits and vegetables 0.1

Fresh fruits & vegetables 0.3

Processed fruits & vegetables -0.4

Source: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook.aspx#.VCuPIhawWSo (September 2014)

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Innovations from this drought?

1. Groundwater management2. Better water accounting3. Better water markets4. Lower targets for urban water use – ripple

effects for conservation, finance, planning5. Higher agricultural water prices – and less

agricultural water use6. Better state agency coordination?7. Others?

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Conclusions1) 4th year of drought, so far similar to

droughts seen 1-2 times/generation

2) California is doing amazingly well, given the magnitude of the drought

3) Stay between complacency and panic

4) Integrated portfolios are the future

5) High value crop production should be less affected

6) Droughts and floods remind us to change, and prepare.

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Suggested Readings

Hanak et al. (2011) Managing California’s Water, PPIC.org

Hanak et al. (2010) Myths of California Water, PPIC.org

Hundley (1992), The Great Thirst, UC Press.

Kelley (1989), Battling the Inland Sea, UC Press.

Lund et al. (2010) Comparing Futures for the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta, UC Press

Pisani (1983), From Family Farms to Agribusiness, UC Press

Aquafornia.comCaliforniaWaterBlog.com

1. Water needs are always changing

2. Major water policy changes require droughts, floods, or lawsuits – benefits of drought

3. Every generation requires a threatening flood and a threatening drought – We’ve got one.

Droughts test, and spur progress