j.d. power ev: sales & pricing in the us
TRANSCRIPT
J.D. POWER
EV: SALES & PRICING IN THE USTyson JominyVice President, Data & Analytics
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EV THESISThe industry sells three very distinct EV
classes that stem from unique
philosophies for technology, marketing,
technology, styling and pricing
One is currently winning in the US, but
long-term success requires all three
approaches
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EV 1.0The original EV concept tracing back to the GM EV1, butofficially began in December 2010 with Nissan Leaf. Bestselling example is Chevrolet Bolt
EV 1.0 is identified by body type, typically a no-frills entryhatchback with an electric powertrain
Many entries have adapted existing vehicle platforms tohit aggressive price points at low end of market
These price targets often required compromises onbattery technology, so range can be limited
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EV sales started slowly as the industry worked out its approach
US Retail Share
0.1%0.1%
0.4%
0.4% 0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Tesla Model SMost Likely to Succeed
Tesla Model XWe’re fraternal
Nissan LEAFOldest and wisest
Fiat 500eOff to Europe
Chevrolet SparkShoulda been nicer to me
BMW i3Never leaving this place
Volkswagen GolfClass comedian
Kia SoulA kind and gentle…
Ford FocusMissed your chance
MB B-ClassToo unique for this world
Smart fortwoToo smart for my own good
Mitsubishi i-MiEVSee you guys never
CongratulationsEV CLASS OF2016MY
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EV 2.0The dominant EV philosophy in the US auto industry.Introduced with Tesla Model S. Best selling example isTesla Model 3
EV 2.0 is identified by style and technology. Premiumbrands market electric powertrains’ performance andthe high prices enable sophisticated technology and verylong range
Vehicle platforms are EV dedicated with unique brandsand models that are flagship products for the automaker
Technological gains are expected to trickle downthroughout lineup
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Launch of Model 3 changed EV sales trajectory in the US
0.1% 0.1%
0.4%0.4% 0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
1.4%
1.7%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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Model 3 instantly doubled EV retail share
Rest of EVs Retail Share
Model 3 Retail Share
0.5%0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
0.0%
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.7%
1.4%
1.7%
2016 2017 2018 2019
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While Non-Tesla entries struggled for marketplace acceptance
Annual Retail
Sales per
Non-Tesla EV
entry
(Entries)
8,170
2,600
4,7884,303 4,119
3,067
4,0523,788 3,910
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(1) (4) (7) (11) (10) (12) (15) (13) (16)
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EV 3.0Where the industry needs to land to drive mass adoptionof EVs. Ford F-150 Lightning may be the turning point,but Ford Mustang Mach-E and VW ID.4 are alreadyadvancing the segment
EV 3.0 is identified by a mainstream segment approach,targeting the highest volume mainstream segments withmodels for the average consumer
The largest seven segments in the industry have beenmostly absent from EV gains. Targeting this space will becritical to EVs gaining traction in the US
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New products are driving EV growth
1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
2.2%
1.1% 1.2%1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%
0.0%
0.2%
0.7%
1.0%1.3%
1.2%1.6%
1.7% 1.7% 1.7%1.6%
2.2%
1.3%
1.9%
2.5%
2.8%
2.6%
2.9%
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21
Model Y
Mustang Mach-E
ID.4
All other EVs
(incl Model 3)
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By offering consumers the type of vehicles they want to buy
12%
18%
64%
51%53%
57%
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21
SUV Mix of EV Sales
SUV Mix of All Other
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$35.0k$32.8k
$22.1k$20.1k
$18.0k
$14.9k
$21.4k
$24.9k
$31.8k
$40.1k
$42.9k
$28.3k $28.6k $29.4k $30.1k $30.8k $31.3k $31.8k $32.6k$33.8k
$35.9k
$39.3k
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021YTD
Transaction prices rebounded by giving people what they want
EV prices up
$11.2k in ‘21 YTD
since ‘19
EV 1.0 prices
much lower than
ICE prices
Non-Tesla
EV Prices
ICE Prices
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EV 87% 82% 82% 84% 66% 47% 43% 54% 41%
ICE 24% 26% 28% 30% 29% 30% 30% 28% 25%
+63
+57+54 +54
+37
+17
+13
+27
+17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Sales no longer require extreme incentive tactics
EV 1.0 saw
largest disparity
in leasing
EV 2.0 and 3.0
saw a change to
less leasing closer
to ICE
EV Lease Percentage o/(u) ICE
(ppts)
Note:
Lease Mix
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
EV retail share varied across generations
Gen X
Millennial
Boomer
Gen Z
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EV growth in the US now strongest ever
0.1% 0.1%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
0.7%
1.4%
1.7%
2.0%
2.8%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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…. And the EV 3.0 story is just beginning
EV Mix of Top Mainstream Segments (Sept YTD)
0.0%
1.9%
1.3%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
Midsize SUV
Compact SUV
Small SUV
Large Pickup - Light
Compact Car
Midsize Car
Midsize Pickup
Top Seven Segments
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WHAT’S NEXTAfter achieving full market acceptance with the biggestmainstream segments in EV 3.0, the industry will againfocus on EV 1.0
This time the products will resonate with consumers andEVs will be more accessible to less affluent consumers ina vehicle without compromises
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