UK Embassy

Resilience against Extreme Weather

Jean Jouzel

With a key contribution of Robert Vautard

LSCE/IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Saclay

UK  and  FR  less  impacted  than  other  EU  countries  in  a  2°C  warmer  climate  

Results  from  ENSEMBLES  simula@ons  (FP7  IMPACT2C  project)  

Changes  in  Temperature    Rela2ve  to  1971-­‐2000  

Changes  in  Precipita2on  Rela2ve  to  1971-­‐2000  

More  rain  

Less  rain  

Both  Warmer  

Weather  events  to  expect  in  the  future  in  Europe  

•  More  heat  waves,  more  intense  and  long  •  Less  cold  spells  •  More  intense  precipita@on  (several  types)  •  More  droughts  (due  to  heat  and  lack  of  precipita@on)  

•  More  high  sea  level  events  (storm  surges)  

UK  

More  intense  precipita@on  and  floods  

January  2014  extreme  precipita@on  amount  aUributed  to  climate  change  (Schaller  et  al,  submiUed)  

More  extreme  sea  level  

Less  cold  spells  

FR  More  extreme  precipita@on  and  flash  floods  (ex  here  in  the  Cévennes  range)  

1/7/2015  

More  heat  and  droughts  Less  cold  spells  

Precipitation change in winter (RCP 8.5)

Hot  summers  in  +2°C  et  +3°C  climates  near  Paris  

Source:  FP7  IMPACT2C  

Observed  and  simulated  summer  temperatures    in  the  Paris  area  

AUribu@ng  current  weather  events:  An  important  learning  step  for  designing  future  measures:    -­‐  Providing  to  the  media  and  large  public  the  understanding  of  consequences  of  climate  change  through  current  events  as  they  come    -­‐  Providing  reliable  informa@on  to  stakeholders  that  can  trigger  decision  for  adapta@on  &  mi@ga@on  

FP7  EUCLEIA  Towards  an  opera@onal  aUribu@on  service  

•  UK  Met  Office  led  project  with  strong  french  collabora@on,  together  with  other  EU  countries  (CH,  DE,  DK,  ES,  NL)  

•  Design  a  pre-­‐opera@onal  service  providing  change  in  odds  of  weather  events  and  uncertainty  when/acer  they  occur  and  interpret  the  event  in  the  context  of  climate  change  

January 2014 Precipitation in South England���

Increase  in  risk  of  the  JANUARY  2014  precipita@on  amount  since  pre-­‐industrial  :  +40%  [0%:160%]  

20 50 100 200 500

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

Return period [years]

Janu

ary

mea

n pr

ecip

itatio

n [m

m/d

ay]

Actual Conditionspooled Naturalindividual Natural

Schaller  et  al.,  2015,  in  revision  

Current  climate  

Preindustrial  climate  

2015  July  Heatwave  in  Europe  

Températures  of  1-­‐2-­‐3  july  2015  in  MANHEIM        Thanks  to  Friederike  O0o    Oxford  University  

Current  Climate:  1x  per  30  years  

Preindustrial  climate  1x  per  200  years