jeffery spooner climate branch head meteorological service adaptation fund board member (grulca)

Jeffery SpoonerJeffery SpoonerClimate Branch HeadClimate Branch HeadMeteorological ServiceMeteorological Service

Adaptation Fund Board Member (GRULCA)Adaptation Fund Board Member (GRULCA)

Climate Change and Adaptation: A Threat to Development and the

Response

Mid term workshop for Community-Based Adaptation

Kingston, Jamaica 29 June -3 July 2009

OUTLINE• Climate and society linkages• Climate Change threats to these• Common terms in Climate Change Adaptation• Climate Change hazards, adaptive capacity and

risk• Adaptive capacity• The UNFCCC• The purpose of adaptation• The Adaptation Fund• Recommendation

Agriculture Biophysical impacts:• Changes in quality, quantity of crops,

pasture, forests and livestock• Changes in quantity, quality of land, soil

and water • Changes in weeds and pests• Shifts in spatial and temporal distribution

of impacts• Sea level rise, changes to ocean salinity• Increase in sea temperature changes fish

stocks • Rain-fed agriculture impacted more than

irrigated agriculture due to changes in rainfall patterns

Climate and society linkages

Agriculture: Socio-economic impacts:• Declines in yields and production• Changes in crop suitability • Reduced GDP from agriculture• Increase in the cost of irrigation water due to rainfall changes • Fluctuations in world market prices • Changes in geographical distribution of

trade regimes• Food insecurity and an increase in # of

people at risk of hunger• Possible migration and civil unrest


Water

IPCC Technical Paper: “Climate Change and Water”:

• freshwater resources are vulnerable • have the potential to be strongly

impacted by CC, with wide ranging consequences for human societies and ecosystems

• Water availability for domestic, agriculture and industrial sectors impacted

Implications for: • human health• human settlement • food security• ability of countries to

develop manufacturing


Health •Human health impacted due to CC impacts on agriculture and water

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment on the human health sector completed by the Climate Study Group at the University of the West Indies at Mona:

Higher temperatures are strongly associated with:•heat stress•increased episodes of diarrheal diseases •increased dangerous pollutants, especially ozone, leading to respiratory diseases•mosquito habitats moving to higher altitudes •greater contact between food and pest species, especially flies

Sea food poisoning can increase: fish feeding on toxic algae blooms caused by warmer seas


Health • Climate extremes climate can lead to

pathogen loading of rivers and contamination of potable water in the case of droughts• Fires caused by droughts can lead to

respiratory diseases• Flooding associated with storms and

hurricanes can lead to increases of water-borne and rodent-borne diseases, especially leptospirosis• Increased hunger and malnutrition• Increases in asthma and other

respiratory ailments


Natural resources (forests, biodiversity, ecosystem services)

• More frequent coral bleaching events due to increased sea temperatures

• Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk

• Species at increasing risk of extinction• Increased risk of forest fires and tree death

due to drought and increased temperatures in some ecosystems



Climate related disasters• More intense storms, such as cyclones, due to rise in sea temperature

• More frequent and severe droughts

• More intense rainfall raises risks of landslides, flooding

• Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF) due to melting glaciers in mountain areas

Climate Change Hazards, Adaptive Capacity, Risk (1)

Hazard: is defined as “A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation”

Hence, Climate Change Hazard is understood as some external influence that may adversely affect a valued attribute of a system as a result of Climate Change.


What is Adaptive Capacity?• The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities orto cope with the consequences• The Adaptive capacity of society refers to the ability to plan, prepare for, facilitate and implement adaptation measures• Factors that determine adaptive capacity of the humansystems include wealth, technology, information and skills,infrastructure, institutions, social capital and equity.

So Adaptive Capacity tells the level of Vulnerability


Risk: Can be broadly defined as “the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome”

Risk = (Hazard) x (Adaptive Capacity) **** The higher the Adaptive Capacity the lower the Vulnerability & vice-versa

Common terms in climate change adaptation

General Circulation Model (GCM) A computer-generated mathematical model of the general circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere or ocean used to predict potential impacts of climate change. Regional climate models (RCM) Similar to global climate models, but of higher resolution and better able to predict climate change impacts for specific regions. Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios A series of emissions scenarios created by the IPCC. These scenarios are commonly used in GCMs to model climate change impacts. Threshold The point at which a physical effect begins to be pronounced. In the climate change context, 2 degrees C of warming is considered the threshold for dangerous warming.

Adaptive Capacity of Developed Countries Vs Developing Countries

Since:• Factors that determine adaptive capacity of the human systems include wealth, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions, social capital and equity

&• The Adaptive capacity of society refers to the ability to plan, prepare for, facilitate and implement adaptation measures

Then• It goes without saying that: The Adaptive Capacity is higher in developed countries and lower in developing countries.

Examples:

Thames Barrier is a large flood control structure built to prevent London from being flooded by an exceptionally high tides-provides a barrier against sea level rise.

With a 1 meter sea level rise, Banjul, capital of The Gambia is likely to be submerged.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Article 2 of the UNFCCC:

The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a levelshould be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economicdevelopment to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Aims to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change

by stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing

through adaptation and mitigation

the Ecosystems to adapt naturally & Food security to be

maintained & Sustainable development to proceed

Management criteria

Management options

Consequence

Article 2 of the UNFCCC:

Hazard

Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities

Important international principle from the UNFCCC (1992)

• All countries contribute to climate change by emitting the greenhouse gases responsible for climate change, so climate change is common problem that all countries must respond to.

• BUT some countries bear more responsibility due to their past emissions of greenhouses gases.

Differentiation between developed and developing countries:

• Developing countries (also known as non-Annex I countries) are expected to contribute more to global climate change response because of their disproportionate share of emissions and their capacity to help developing countries.

How this is will be defined in practice is highly controversial, and the subject

of negotiations.

Management options: Mitigation & Adaptation Mitigation:

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions such as:

•Switching to low-carbon (natural gas) or carbon-free energy sources (wind or solar power)

•Improving the efficiency of buildings and vehicles so that they use less fossil fuels

AND efforts to enhance or preserve the natural sinks (for example, forests) that absorb carbon emissions

WITH THE GOAL OF REDUCING THE EXTENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Adaptation:

What is adaptation to climate change?

IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)“…adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, that moderates harm and exploits beneficial opportunities.”

UNDP Adaptation Policy FrameworkAdaptation is a process by which individuals, communities, and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change, including variability.

Practical Question:How do we help developing countries and communities prepare for and adjust to the impacts of climate change?

The purpose of adaptationWhat adaptation is, and what adaptation isn’t

Adaptation is:

Responding to climate change, because climate change both threatens development gains already achieved and our ability to achieve future environment and development gains

Adaptation is NOT:

A new name for development

Adaptation Funds

The GEF currently has three adaptation funds authorized by the UNFCCC.

FINANCING ADAPTATION: OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION AND EXPERIMENTATION, MANISH BAPNA AND HEATHER MCGRAY, WRI.

The Adaptation Fund was established by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC;• To finance concrete adaptation Projects/Programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

• The Fund will be financed with 2% of the Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) issued for projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and with funds from other sources.

• Key Decisions re: The AF & AFB may be accessed on the Adaptation Fund web site at:

http://www.adaptation-fund.org/documents.html

Adaptation Funding

Meteorological Service, JamaicaMeteorological Service, Jamaica

• The GEF provides secretariat services to the AFB, on an interim basis

• The World Bank operates as trustee for the AF on an interim basis

• The he AFB met 4 times last year and twice since 2009

• The World Bank has been mandated to monetize a percentage of the CERs

• The modalities for accessing funding from the AF is almost The modalities for accessing funding from the AF is almost complete and the complete and the The Operational Policies and Guidelines for Parties to Access Resources from the Adaptation Fund should be completed before the end of 2009.


Some Guidelines w.r.t accessing resources from the AF:Some Guidelines w.r.t accessing resources from the AF: Two financing Windows:Two financing Windows:• SSmall – size Projects/Programmes (request up to $1million)• Projects/Programmes (request over $1 million)

Implementing Entities: Two types of Implementing Entities:• The National Implementing Entity (NIE): Those legal entities, nominated by Parties that are recognized by the Board as meeting the fiduciary standards established by the Board. • The Multilateral Implementing Entity (MIE): those Multilateral, Regional or Sub-regional Institutions and Regional Banks that are identified ex-ante or recognized by the Board as meeting the fiduciary standards established by the Board.


Executing Entities: Are organizations that execute adaptation Projects/Programmes supported by the Fund under the oversight of an Implementing Entity (NIE or MIE).

• Parties may nominate Regional and Sub-regional Entities to act as National Implementing Entity (NIE).In the case of Regional (ie: multi-country) Projects/Programmes, the proposal submitted to the AFB should be endorsed by participating Parties

All Projects/Programmes submitted to the Secretariat by the NIE or MIE chosen by the Government must be endorsed by the UNFCCC Focal Point or the authority designated by the Party to so do.


Trustee Board

MIE* NIE*

Ex. Entity Ex. Entity Ex. Entity

Financial transfer

Proposal submission and contract

Proposal elaboration and oversight

Instruction

Direct Access Modality

Ex. Entity

Endorsement (from NIE in case of MIE)* A Party nominates either a Multilateral or National Implementing Entity.

Direct access by Parties to the Resources from the AF


Two Stage Project Cycle• Small–size Projects/Programmes (request up to $1million) will undergo a single approval process by the Board• Projects/ Programmes (requesting for over $1 million): To undergo a double approval process.

(Step 1): The submission of a concept document of the project and once this is given the ok (Step 2): The Party can submit the Project/Programme.• To reduce time needed

Recommendation: Strongly urge that Projects/Programmes are developed and be ready for submission for funding once the call is made early in the 2nd half of 2009.


What does the operationalization of the Adaptation Fund mean for community-based adaptation? •…•…

jeffery spooner climate branch head meteorological service adaptation fund board member (grulca)

Documents

water changes

outline climate

society linkagesagriculture

society linkagesclimate

rainfall changes fluctuations

climate study group

purpose of adaptation

adaptation assessment