jennifer murray traffic forecasting section chief, wisdot metropolitan planning organization...
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Freight Forecasting & ModelingPilot Behavior-based Model Project
Jennifer MurrayTraffic Forecasting Section Chief, WisDOT
Metropolitan Planning Organization Quarterly MeetingJuly 28th, 2015
WisDOT Freight Forecasting
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Analysis Respond to WisDOT business needs using data
Air quality modeling (Commercial VMT)
Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design software inputs
Cooperate and establish partnerships Clarify WisDOT’s current statewide truck model
capabilities Truck traffic to, from, within and through Wisconsin
Truck forecasts, corridor truck growth rates, new routes
Truck vehicle-miles of travel (VMT)
SHRP2 Focus Areas
1) Safety 2) Renewal 3) Reliability 4) Capacity
C20 Implementation
Grants
Tour-Based Modeling
Create behavior-based freight models & data improvements Take conventional practices, and integrate new model
methods and data innovation Break down barriers and
create new interactions Support freight transportation needs through good
planning and operations management Provide transferrable practices and
methods, others can use
Foster Fresh Ideas
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Create a statewide freight forecasting framework that integrates travel demand modeling with freight
analysis tools provides performance metrics and analyzes alternative strategies to move freight
WisDOT Freight Forecasting Project Goal
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Create a Behavior or Tour -based Freight Model System Improve and Expand WisDOT Knowledge Standardize Analysis through Tools and Models
Freight Industry / Supply Chain Practices Sound Economic Principles Multi-modal Movement
Use Data at Appropriate Scale Discuss Policies with Others Compare to Current Model (Trip-based)
WisDOT Proof of Concept Model Pilot Project Objectives
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Scenario: Freight flows from the Port of Los Angeles to Madison through a distribution center in Kansas City
Trip-Based and Tour-Based Freight Models
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Trip-based
•Change in demand through Kansas City cannot be estimated given a new, more attractive interchange point in Milwaukee
Tour-based
•The shift in Madison-bound freight flows through Kansas City to the new Milwaukee interchange point can be calculated
Two Distinct Types of Freight Tours
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Open Tour Closed Tour
I-94 WI/MN state line from Tomah to Maple Bluffs
Cedarburg to Whitefish Bay to Greenfield with return to Cedarburg
Characteristics of Open and Closed Tour-based Freight Models
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Characteristic Open (Supply Chain) Closed (Local Tours)
Tour TypeOpen (chain start location is not the same as chain end location)
Closed (tour start location is the same as tour end location)
Origins and destinations
One may end outside of the region Both ends are inside the region
Distance May be hundreds of miles Typically <100 miles
Duration One or more days Less than one day
Shipments included One One or more
Cargos/commodities included
One One or more
Modes included Truck, rail, water, air Truck
Vehicles included One or more One
Data that Supports Tour-Based Models
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Open (Supply Chain)
•Data on industry locations•Costs of using various methods•Interchange points or transportation logistics nodes
Closed (Local Tours)
•Location and type of land use activities at stop locations•Truck touring data•Number of stops per tour•Distance between stops
Open Tour
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Closed TourMadison
Milwaukee
Kansas City
Halifax
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Closed tour originating in Dane County based on ATRI Truck GPS data during April 2015
Assess tour- model usefulness vs trip- model Potential to provide more detailed answers May be more difficult to validate, operate and maintain (data hog) May identify benefits of a given project, but those benefits may accrue
outside of Wisconsin, or at facilities not under control of WisDOT Improved technical capacity Potential improved freight industry and stakeholder
connections Improved WisDOT’s understanding of freight flows in
relation to economic, land use, and other factors
WisDOT’s Overall Value of Exploring Tour-Based Models
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Policy sensitivity/scenario testing. Examples include Milwaukee intermodal rail facility testing Diversion of Asian freight shipments from west coast to east
coast ports with the Panama Canal Expansion Project Increases in truck fuel prices Capacity expansion projects
Model validation using truck registration data, TRANSEARCH data, Truck Counts, and Truck VMT
Continued coordination
Next Steps For Model Project
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Two types of freight touring models Statewide, all mode, open tour supply chain freight model Closed tour freight truck model within urbanized
(MPO/RPC) areas Comprehensive calibration and validation Scenario / alternatives analysis and sensitivity tests Documentation
Model Project Deliverables
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…by Summer 2016
Bigger Picture Project Outcomes
Clarified forecasting capabilities Consistent freight forecasting tool set to
evaluate needs Documented patterns of freight in Wisconsin More robust forecasts Information for other types of decision-making Improved stakeholder relationships Knowledge transfer to other states, MPOs and others
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Questions
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