I N T A C T W I L D E R N E S S A S S I S T S S P E C I E S ’ R E S P O N S E S T O C L I M A T E C H A N G E

JEREMY KERR University of Ottawa

http://www.macroecology.ca

@JeTKerr

Human impacts on habitat and climate   Welcome to the Anthropocene!   We live in a world where resource extraction benefits are private but costs are public.   Québec’s boreal is one of the few places left with intact wilderness and accompanying

ecosystem services.

@JeTKerr

•  Habitat losses endangers Canadian biodiversity in every region where it is extensive.

•  Endangerment rates across Quebec’s boreal remain low, but are high in adjacent areas.

Kerr & Deguise. Ecology Letters.

@JeTKerr

Human impacts on habitat and climate

•  Climatic conditions, like winter cold, limit species’ geographical ranges in the north.

•  Warming allows species to expand their ranges, if habitat conditions allow. Failure to track shifting climates = climate debt.

•  Example: bog copper butterfly. Highest measured range shift rates on Earth (~30km/year).

@JeTKerr

Human impacts on habitat and climate

• Wilderness in the boreal may represent one of the last areas where rapid movement of species is possible because there are so few barriers imposed by human activities.

@JeTKerr

Human impacts on habitat and climate

•  We set out to test this proposition.

•  Butterfly species are known to be strong indicators for other groups of species.

Relative to baseline conditions, are butterfly species tracking climate change, and what limits their ability to do so?

@JeTKerr

Human impacts on habitat and climate

Human footprint in Canada, showing deviation in productivity from expectations

•  Obstacles to studying such questions are huge:

•  Measurements of human impacts on habitat relative to baseline conditions were needed!

•  Citizen science programs, like e-Butterfly.ca (uOttawa and Montreal Insectarium) and BumblebeeWatch.or) permit tracking of species over huge areas and through time.

B I O D I V E R S I T Y C H A N G E

@JeTKerr

Red to Blue = High to low

butterfly species richness

•  1901-1974

•  1985-2010

Red to Blue = Increasing to decreasing butterfly species richness in the past century

•  Statistical modelling shows that butterfly species can handle some habitat changes, or climate change, but NOT BOTH.

B I O D I V E R S I T Y C H A N G E

•  Loss of natural habitats makes it hard for pollinators like butterflies to make it through increasingly hot summers.

•  Butterflies are indicators of impacts on other species. Their role as pollinators means that losses of species due to climate change and habitat loss may have impacts on pollination services.

•  Continued efforts to conserve wilderness areas may provide habitat refugia for species to reduce negative climate change impacts.

@JeTKerr

B I O D I V E R S I T Y C H A N G E

•  Large wilderness areas in Québec’s boreal provide unique ecological benefits for Quebeckers.

•  Intact wilderness reduces impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

•  Plan Nord’s goal of securing >50% wilderness is critical. Keeping vital ecosystem services intact is cheaper and vastly more effective than restoration.

@JeTKerr

B I O D I V E R S I T Y C H A N G E

•  Thank You.