jimmy eco portugal pib

8/19/2019 Jimmy Eco Portugal PIB

1/18

AR(1)

Y PIB xi x1 y est y - y est

78721607509.492 1

89242382961.01 1 78721607509.492 89113665788 128717172.66

107602689040.69 1 89242382961.01 99117800477 8484888563.2

95019103603.042 1 107602689040.69 576492168 -21557388565

99698453260.87 1 95019103603.042 4610845323 -4912392062

118133634071.91 1 99698453260.87 060407473 9073226599.3

122629812841.18 1 118133634071.91 590297042 -3960484201

117046198970.84 1 122629812841.18 865683225 -13819484254

123981736420.3 1 117046198970.84 556262311 -1574525891

127465545493.29 1 123981736420.3 151218273 -4685672779

118358489957.62 1 127465545493.29 463948913 -17105458955

121545880984.34 1 118358489957.62 804110993 -5258230009

134228697534.35 1 121545880984.34 834979705 4393717829.4

164964195259.59 1 134228697534.35 894984748 23069210511

189187437298.24 1 164964195259.59 1121163027 18066274271

197304513120.26 1 189187437298.24 154881129 3149631991.2

208566948939.91 1 197304513120.26 873353991 6693594949.3

240169336162.06 1 208566948939.91 582728541 27586607621

262007590449.69 1 240169336162.06 633226218 19374364232

243745748819.12 1 262007590449.69 399075492 -19653326673

238317631788.08 1 243745748819.12 034012984 -7716381196

244879869335.56 1 238317631788.08 0872452970 4007416365.5

216368178659.45 1 244879869335.56 112440563 -30744261904

226073492966.5 1 216368178659.45 000865466 6072627500.9

230116912513.59 1 226073492966.5 9229583631 887328882.18

-0.0100250244

Variana 020


2/18

!"2 x# 1 1 1

78721607509 89242382961 1.076!$011

81!$016

$019 x#x 24 8526!$012

020 8526!$0127.11681!$023

$019

$019 x#x in% 0.3585091544 -1.95720!-012

$019 -1.95720!-012 1.20900!-023

020

!$018 x#y 3665!$012 x#x in% x#y

$019 7.32128!$023

020

$019

$019

020 &eta %ar '! t-stent

020 14257818128 $019 8759286084 1.62773747

!$018 0.9508932811 0.0025873971 0.050866463 18.6939139

$019

020

020

020

$019

$019

020

$019

3!$017

21


3/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

95019103603 9.970!$010 1.181!$011 1.226!$011 1.170!$011 1.240!$011

14257818128&1

0.9508932811&2


4/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

1.275!$011 1.184!$011 1.215!$011 1.342!$011 1.650!$011 1.892!$011


5/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

1.973!$011 2.086!$011 2.402!$011 2.620!$011 2.437!$011 2.383!$011


6/18

1 1 1

2.449!$011 2.164!$011 2.261!$011


7/18

AR (2)

Y PIB xi x1 x2 y est y - y est

7.872!$010 1

8.924!$010 1 7.872!$010

1.076!$011 1 8.924!$010 78721607509 008208831 7594480210.06

9.502!$010 1 1.076!$011 89242382961 8816980536 -23797876933

9.970!$010 1 9.502!$010 602689041 391631778 -1693178517

1.181!$011 1 9.970!$010 95019103603 892154086 9241479986.41

1.226!$011 1 1.181!$011 99698453261 821076440 -6191263599

1.170!$011 1 1.226!$011 133634072 614895783 -13568696813

1.240!$011 1 1.170!$011 629812841 530249184 451487235.849

1.275!$011 1 1.240!$011 7046198971 330042608 -4864497115

1.184!$011 1 1.275!$011 981736420 023086500 -16664596542

1.215!$011 1 1.184!$011 465545493 4150434303 -2604553318

1.342!$011 1 1.215!$011 358489958 354475594 4874221940.53

1.650!$011 1 1.342!$011 1545880984 070586952 218936083071.892!$011 1 1.650!$011 4228697534 430894610 13756542688

1.973!$011 1 1.892!$011 964195260 256945078 47568042.4537

2.086!$011 1 1.973!$011 187437298 101652255 6465296684.45

2.402!$011 1 2.086!$011 304513120 344199249 26825136913

2.620!$011 1 2.402!$011 566948940 932527485 15075062965

2.437!$011 1 2.620!$011 169336162 919271268 -22173522449

2.383!$011 1 2.437!$011 007590450 483264307 -3165632519

2.449!$011 1 2.383!$011 745748819 609310448 6270558887.64

2.164!$011 1 2.449!$011 317631788 961180700 -30593002041

2.261!$011 1 2.164!$011 879869336 692305990 123811869762.301!$011 1 2.261!$011 368178659 676723505 440189008.654

0.0178070068

Variana 2.27725!$020


8/18

x# 1 1

e"2 89242382961 107602689041

78721607509 89242382961

5.76761!$019 x#x 23 06537567938

5.66339!$020 06537567938 23

2.86685!$018 59185682481 23

8.54050!$019

3.83317!$019 x#x in% 0.4099509732 -3.04624!-012

1.84110!$020 -3.04624!-012 2.124321!-022

2.03841!$017 8.654239!-013 -2.01839!-022

2.36633!$019

2.77709!$020 x#y 47412097490

6.78370!$018 23

2.37580!$019 23

4.79330!$0201.89242!$020

2.26272!$015

4.18001!$019

7.19588!$020 Beta Var '!

2.27258!$020 13477407614 2!$019 9662086574.43

4.91665!$020 1.1260369367 0.0483760073 0.2199454643

1.00212!$019 -0.177326388 0.0465759252 0.215814562

3.93199!$019

9.35932!$020

1.53294!$0201.93766!$017

4.55449!$021


9/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

95019103603 99698453261 1.181!$011 1.226!$011 1.170!$011 1.240!$011

107602689041 95019103603 9.970!$010 1.181!$011 1.226!$011 1.170!$011

59185682481

23

23

8.654239!-013

-2.01839!-022

2.045274!-022

x#x in% x#y 13477407614 &1

1.1260369367&2

-0.177326388 &3

t-stnent

1.3948754765

5.1196188127

-0.8216609033


10/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

1.275!$011 1.184!$011 1.215!$011 1.342!$011 1.650!$011 1.892!$011

1.240!$011 1.275!$011 1.184!$011 1.215!$011 1.342!$011 1.650!$011


11/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

1.973!$011 2.086!$011 2.402!$011 2.620!$011 2.437!$011 2.383!$011

1.892!$011 1.973!$011 2.086!$011 2.402!$011 2.620!$011 2.437!$011


12/18

1 1 1

2.449!$011 2.164!$011 2.261!$011

2.383!$011 2.449!$011 2.164!$011


13/18

AR(3)

Y PIB xi x1 x2 x3 y est

7.872!$010 1

8.924!$010 1 7.872!$010

1.076!$011 1 8.924!$010 7.872!$010

9.502!$010 1 1.076!$011 8.924!$010 78721607509 3431938809.970!$010 1 9.502!$010 1.076!$011 89242382961 98316749647

1.181!$011 1 9.970!$010 9.502!$010 602689041 259554921

1.226!$011 1 1.181!$011 9.970!$010 95019103603 256596947

1.170!$011 1 1.226!$011 1.181!$011 99698453261 070911375

1.240!$011 1 1.170!$011 1.226!$011 133634072 667315222

1.275!$011 1 1.240!$011 1.170!$011 629812841 066051478

1.184!$011 1 1.275!$011 1.240!$011 7046198971 069872318

1.215!$011 1 1.184!$011 1.275!$011 981736420 393428137

1.342!$011 1 1.215!$011 1.184!$011 465545493 488017861

1.650!$011 1 1.342!$011 1.215!$011 358489958 8191955481.892!$011 1 1.650!$011 1.342!$011 1545880984 491265810

1.973!$011 1 1.892!$011 1.650!$011 4228697534 084249225

2.086!$011 1 1.973!$011 1.892!$011 964195260 9691384286

2.402!$011 1 2.086!$011 1.973!$011 187437298 3272984849

2.620!$011 1 2.402!$011 2.086!$011 304513120 067376243

2.437!$011 1 2.620!$011 2.402!$011 566948940 443505647

2.383!$011 1 2.437!$011 2.620!$011 169336162 591536517

2.449!$011 1 2.383!$011 2.437!$011 007590450 217768047

2.164!$011 1 2.449!$011 2.383!$011 745748819 073398129

2.261!$011 1 2.164!$011 2.449!$011 317631788 406656365

2.301!$011 1 2.261!$011 2.164!$011 879869336 718395999

Variana 2.44608!$020


14/18

x# 1

y - y est !"2 107602689041

89242382961

78721607509

-22324090277 4.98365!$020 x#x 221381703613.87 1.90910!$018 17295184977

7874079151.39 6.20011!$019 80464074971

-5626784105 3.16607!$019 42817503821

-11024712404 1.21544!$020

1314421198.13 1.72770!$018 x#x in% 0.4593265384

-5600505985 3.13657!$019 -2.96904!-012

-15711382361 2.46848!$020 1.632132!-013

-1847547153 3.41343!$018 3.913142!-013

3740679673.64 1.39927!$019

22144999712 4.90401!$020 x#y 3980940845014696171488 2.15977!$020 23

3220263895.68 1.03701!$019 23

8875564653.66 7.87756!$019 23

26896351313 7.23414!$020

14940214206 2.23210!$020

-19697756828 3.88002!$020

-1273904729 1.62283!$018 Beta Var

2662101289 7.08678!$018 11934517320 !$020

-32705219470 1.06963!$021 1.1505604649 0.053709454

12666836601 1.60449!$020 -0.324847518 0.1204483617

-4601483485 2.11737!$019 0.1345938376 0.05178383

-0.070526123 4.40294!$021

PARA !* PR!+!,! RABA/ '!/+RA/+ ! !* /!I

,/ !+AI/,ARI/+ P/R !* A* '!P!,'!, '!* I!P/


15/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

95019103603 99698453261 118133634072 1.226!$011 1.170!$011 1.240!$011

107602689041 95019103603 99698453261 1.181!$011 1.226!$011 1.170!$011

89242382961 107602689041 95019103603 9.970!$010 1.181!$011 1.226!$011

17295184977 80464074971 4281750382123 23 23

23 23 23

23 23 23

-2.96904!-012 1.632132!-013 3.913142!-013

2.195738!-022 -2.47109!-022 3.888166!-023

-2.47109!-022 4.924143!-022 -2.46335!-022

3.888166!-023 -2.46335!-022 2.117015!-022

# I,V #Y 11934517320 B11.1505604649B2

-0.3248475183B3

0.1345938376B4

'! t-stnent

10599757010 1.1259236706

0.2317530021 4.9645978877

0.3470567125 -0.9360070172

0.2275606073 0.591463695

I!,! I!,! PR/!+/+


16/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

1.275!$011 1.184!$011 1.215!$011 1.342!$011 1.650!$011 1.892!$011

1.240!$011 1.275!$011 1.184!$011 1.215!$011 1.342!$011 1.650!$011

1.170!$011 1.240!$011 1.275!$011 1.184!$011 1.215!$011 1.342!$011


17/18

1 1 1 1 1 1

1.973!$011 2.086!$011 2.402!$011 2.620!$011 2.437!$011 2.383!$011

1.892!$011 1.973!$011 2.086!$011 2.402!$011 2.620!$011 2.437!$011

1.650!$011 1.892!$011 1.973!$011 2.086!$011 2.402!$011 2.620!$011


18/18

1 1 1

2.449!$011 2.164!$011 2.261!$011

2.383!$011 2.449!$011 2.164!$011

2.437!$011 2.383!$011 2.449!$011

jimmy eco portugal pib

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