jirapat phornprapha graduate school of science and ... · where t : year n : vehicle age n t: new...
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Jirapat PHORNPRAPHAGraduate school of Science and Technology
Nihon University
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Recently, logistics have been increasing rapidly. However logistics network is still not advanced and transportation is still ineffective.In addition, number of the scraped equipment also increased which can be considered as environmental problem.To deal with these problems, Closed-loop supply chain investigation which both forward and reverse logistics are needed.
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In Thailand, there is no much data about logistics which make it difficult to figure out the real current situation.The objective of this study is to propose, the reverse logistics by allocating the facility in the network.
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Recently, the environmental issue has become more concerned, in developed country there is a law that manufacturer must take responsibility to collect the product at the end of life.Japan:Automobile(2002~)、Motorcycles(2004~)
EU:(2002~)
Korea:3RsThailand:no regulation currently but the tendency is high.
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Factory Warehouse Dealer
Part Maker
Material
User2nd hand centre Maintenance
Used part
Scraped material
Waste
Disposal company
Land filling
Incineration
Recycle
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2%
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Factory2nd hand Centre
Forward flow
Reverse flow
Dealer
2%
Factory2nd hand Centre
Dealer
Current flow
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Forward flow
Reverse flow
FactoryDistribution Centre
DealerFactoryCollection Centre
Dealer
Proposed flow
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Where t : yearn : vehicle ageNt : New registered vehicle in year tαn : Survival rate of vehicle at age nTt : Vehicle that possession transferred to other user in year tPt : Number of vehicle that are being possessed in year tSt : Vehicle that registration suspended in year t due to being unable to pay
the tax for consecutive 3 years, enacted in year 2004Cper,t : Vehicle that registration was inquired to cancel from user permanently in
year tCtemp,t : Vehicle that registration was inquired to cancel from user temporarily in
year t
Currently possessed
New registered
Survival rate
suspended
Transferred
ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND
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Minimum error = 1.8%.
The sudden drop in year 2004 is caused by the regulation that suspend the registration for those who do not pay tax for consecutive 3 years was first started.
Currently possessed motorcycles
Survival rate
Registration suspend for not
paying tax 3 years consecutively
ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND
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New registered motorcycles 2nd hand motorcycles
ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND
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FactoryFactory WarehouseWarehouse Distribution Centre
Distribution Centre DealerDealer
Collection Centre
Collection CentreDisposal CentreDisposal Centre Main Collection
CentreMain Collection
Centre
UserUser
Design variable:Location and number of facilities
Location fixed
Forward transportation cost
Reverse transportation cost Construction
cost Operation cost
Location fixed
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Factory2nd hand Centre
City
Hybrid distribution/collection centre
Forward flow
Factory2nd hand Centre
Dealer
Dealer no. =973
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Reverse flow
FactoryCollection Centre
DealerFactory2nd hand Centre
City
Hybrid distribution/collection centre
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Factory2nd hand Centre
City
Hybrid distribution/collection centre
Factory2nd hand Centre
Dealer
Hybrid distribution/collection centre
Factory2nd hand Centre
City
Hybrid distribution/collection centre
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0 10 20 30 40 50 605.8
5.9
6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8x 10
9
No of facilities
Tota
l cost
Total cost
Total cost for without facility case
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 20391
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5x 10
8
Year
Tot
al c
ost
39 facilities
Base case
39
The optimal number of Hybrid distribution/collection centre was found to be 39.
Comparing with the current system, with Hybrid distribution/collection being established the total cost are reduced and more benefit can be gained.
RESULTSRESULTS
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In this study, for motorcycle transportation as a case study, it has been found that by introducing distribution/collection facility in the logistics network , the cost can be reduced.As a further study◦ Regional cohort model should be performed◦ Stochastic demand should be applied
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The following tasks are investigated① Clarifying the actual situation of the motorcycle
transportation②Demand estimation for motorcycle transportation. Also,
the number of scraped, recycled and 2nd hand motorcycle.
③Facility allocation to the logistics network.
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To estimate the demand, the number of new registered motorcycles are also needed therefore the number of new registered motorcycles are also forecasted.To forecast the number of new registered motorcycles, GDP are used for forecasting.
ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE ESTIMATION OF MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILANDTRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THAILAND