jja mean precipitation
DESCRIPTION
JJA Mean Precipitation. Regional simulations driven by NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis for 25 years at 50 km spatial resolution. NCEP. OBS. MM5. WRF. JJA Precipitation Anomaly (1993 minus 1988). NCEP. OBS. MM5. WRF. DJF Mean Precipitation. NCEP. OBS. MM5. WRF. ACC ~ 0.94. ACC ~ 0.90. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
JJA Mean Precipitation
OBS NCEP
MM5 WRF
Regional simulations driven by NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis for 25 years at 50 km spatial resolution
Cold Season Variability
Columbia River Basin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
DJf
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
California
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
DJF
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Great Basin
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
DJF
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
Ohio Basin
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
DJF
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
ACC ~ 0.90 ACC ~ 0.94
ACC ~ 0.92 ACC ~ 0.30
ACC ~ 0.60 in NCEP
WRF and MM5 have similar skill in capturing cold season variability
Warm Season Variability
Ohio Basin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
JJA
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
Columbia River Basin
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
JJA
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
California
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
JJA
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
Upper Mississippi Basin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
JJA
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m/d
ay)
OBS
MM5
WRF
ACC ~ 0.80 ACC ~ 0.60
ACC ~ 0.3 - 0.8ACC ~ 0.3 - 0.4
ACC ~ 0.60 in NCEPACC ~ 0.17 in NCEP
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Larger differences between WRF and MM5 skill in capturing warm season variability; differences traced to new vs old KF scheme